Robert Wiedemer, co author of "The Aftershock Investor" says go with gold. [click here to get your copy on Amazon.com], Wiedemer says investors should stick with gold as the government continues to print money and he has some interesting thoughts on the numerous "bubble pops" we are experiencing right now.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Monday, November 12, 2012
Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outages Remain Above Year Ago Level
How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?
The volume of unplanned oil production disruptions among countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of several key measurements of global oil supply security. Unplanned non OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year were almost twice the amount experienced in the last three months of 2011.
Global surplus capacity, another key metric of global oil supply security, currently remains relatively tight by historical standards, and is estimated at 2.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. (The estimate for global surplus capacity does not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran, but which is currently offline due to the impacts of U.S. and European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.) Tighter global surplus capacity, coupled with an elevated volume of non OPEC supply disruptions, has placed upward price pressure this year on Brent crude, a benchmark for the global oil price.
Conflict, tariff disputes, worker strikes, natural disasters, and maintenance related problems were some of the prominent issues that caused several countries to reduce or shut in oil production in 2012 (see chart). As a result, unplanned non-OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year averaged almost twice the level of disruptions experienced during the last three months of 2011, which is more representative of historical norms.
Recently, unplanned non-OPEC supply outages have declined, from an average of about 1.1 million bbl/d in both August and September to 0.9 million bbl/d in October. This is mainly due to the return of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico, which was temporarily curtailed by Hurricane Isaac in August and September of 2012. Nonetheless, an above normal volume of non OPEC production remains offline due to large outages in Syria and South Sudan, which together accounted for almost two thirds of the total non OPEC unplanned outages in October. Non-OPEC supply outages represented nearly 2% of the total non OPEC supply, which averaged 52.7 million bbl/d in October.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, and its impact on oil prices arguably transcends disrupted volumes in that country, as concerns grow about the risk of regional spillover effects from the conflict. The government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production last month, and production is expected to gradually resume within the next few months. South Sudan has signed an agreement with Sudan on oil export fees and security arrangements; however, some post independence issues such as border demarcation, rights to the disputed Abyei region, and claims for compensation of seized assets still remain unresolved.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
The volume of unplanned oil production disruptions among countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of several key measurements of global oil supply security. Unplanned non OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year were almost twice the amount experienced in the last three months of 2011.
Global surplus capacity, another key metric of global oil supply security, currently remains relatively tight by historical standards, and is estimated at 2.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. (The estimate for global surplus capacity does not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran, but which is currently offline due to the impacts of U.S. and European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.) Tighter global surplus capacity, coupled with an elevated volume of non OPEC supply disruptions, has placed upward price pressure this year on Brent crude, a benchmark for the global oil price.
Conflict, tariff disputes, worker strikes, natural disasters, and maintenance related problems were some of the prominent issues that caused several countries to reduce or shut in oil production in 2012 (see chart). As a result, unplanned non-OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year averaged almost twice the level of disruptions experienced during the last three months of 2011, which is more representative of historical norms.
Recently, unplanned non-OPEC supply outages have declined, from an average of about 1.1 million bbl/d in both August and September to 0.9 million bbl/d in October. This is mainly due to the return of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico, which was temporarily curtailed by Hurricane Isaac in August and September of 2012. Nonetheless, an above normal volume of non OPEC production remains offline due to large outages in Syria and South Sudan, which together accounted for almost two thirds of the total non OPEC unplanned outages in October. Non-OPEC supply outages represented nearly 2% of the total non OPEC supply, which averaged 52.7 million bbl/d in October.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, and its impact on oil prices arguably transcends disrupted volumes in that country, as concerns grow about the risk of regional spillover effects from the conflict. The government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production last month, and production is expected to gradually resume within the next few months. South Sudan has signed an agreement with Sudan on oil export fees and security arrangements; however, some post independence issues such as border demarcation, rights to the disputed Abyei region, and claims for compensation of seized assets still remain unresolved.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Sunday, November 11, 2012
How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?
We have been day trading for years, back to the days when we got excited that we could now use this new technology and fax our orders in. And so much has changed over the years on the technology side. But a lot of things still have not changed one bit. Most importantly is the ability to use market psychology when getting the upper hand on traders and investors on the other side of your trades.
Yes, it's true.....we all can't be winners. There is a losing trade on the other side of every one of your winning trades. And I still, after all these years, believe that most of those losing trades are being placed by retail and professional traders that insist on breaking the rules of Trading 101. The pros know them better then anybody and they still continue to allow their emotions to dictate their trades.
That's why I have partnered with my friend Todd Mitchell in promoting his New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy. This is a time tested system that takes your emotion out of the equation and allows you to make your trades in the first 30 minutes that the market is open, then go on with your life. Regardless of news cycles and market reactions. I am buying this for myself, we have traders in our family and our shop that will benefit from the immensely. So should you.
It's free to sign up, watch Todd's video and ask him questions about the program and the way the system works. This is the guy that hedge fund managers are sending their new employees to so they can use the system in their shops. Why wouldn't you take a minute to sign up, read the comments traders are leaving about the program and ask Todd your own questions.
OK, enough of me....I need to get ready for the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday.
See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
Just Click Here for "The New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy"
Yes, it's true.....we all can't be winners. There is a losing trade on the other side of every one of your winning trades. And I still, after all these years, believe that most of those losing trades are being placed by retail and professional traders that insist on breaking the rules of Trading 101. The pros know them better then anybody and they still continue to allow their emotions to dictate their trades.
That's why I have partnered with my friend Todd Mitchell in promoting his New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy. This is a time tested system that takes your emotion out of the equation and allows you to make your trades in the first 30 minutes that the market is open, then go on with your life. Regardless of news cycles and market reactions. I am buying this for myself, we have traders in our family and our shop that will benefit from the immensely. So should you.
It's free to sign up, watch Todd's video and ask him questions about the program and the way the system works. This is the guy that hedge fund managers are sending their new employees to so they can use the system in their shops. Why wouldn't you take a minute to sign up, read the comments traders are leaving about the program and ask Todd your own questions.
OK, enough of me....I need to get ready for the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday.
See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
Just Click Here for "The New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy"
ONG: Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for Sunday Nov. 11th
It's Sunday and that means it's time to check in with our friends at Oil N'Gold.com and get their call on commodities this week.......
After some volatility, crude oil dipped further to 84.05 last week before recovering mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideways trading first. Nonetheless, note that crude oil is still staying inside near term falling channel. As long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Natural gas consolidated around 4 hours 55 EMA last week and outlook remains unchanged. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.88). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.233).
In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
The rebound and break of 1727.5 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1672.5 in gold. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Our most popular post of the week "Did the SP500 Finally Bottom?"
After some volatility, crude oil dipped further to 84.05 last week before recovering mildly. Initial bias is neutral this week for some sideways trading first. Nonetheless, note that crude oil is still staying inside near term falling channel. As long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Natural gas consolidated around 4 hours 55 EMA last week and outlook remains unchanged. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.88). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.233).
In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
The rebound and break of 1727.5 resistance suggests that a short term bottom is formed at 1672.5 in gold. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Our most popular post of the week "Did the SP500 Finally Bottom?"
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Did the SP500 Finally Bottom?
From our trading partner David A. Banister at Market Trends Forecast.com......
The SP 500 finally caved to match or go a bit lower than the SP 500 futures lows of about 11 days ago in yesterday’s action. The drop to the 1390 area is within our 1386-1400 pivot points for a major wave low pattern that we outlined as far back as September 25th for our subscribers.
Our work centers around sentiment and crowd behavior, the headlines are of interest but only tell you the psychology of the publishing arms or talking heads at the time. Often headlines can be negative and the market climbs, or positive and the market is dropping. So the key for our work is figuring out where we are in the sentiment patterns of the crowd, and then to anticipate the pivots ahead of time and invest accordingly.
In fact, in just 24 hours or so we had a 43 point SP 500 drop… this is interesting because the same thing happened at the June 2012 lows as well. Back then we had outlined pivots in the 1250-1270 areas as likely lows, and the market ended up bottoming at 1267. This bottom area yesterday fits within pivots we were able to anticipate 7 weeks ago, without any knowledge of the election or other headlines around the world.
Often, major washout days like yesterday centering around major news (Election) can create the final panic sell-off to complete a wave pattern of negative sentiment to the downside and then reverse the markets higher in new bullish pattern. To be sure, there are many sentiment headwinds like the Fiscal Cliff and more in the coming weeks…but markets tend to price all that in ahead of time right?
At yesterdays lows the market seems to have completed all requirements for a C wave of an ABC complicated decline from the 1474 SP 500 highs and so far an 8 Fibonacci week correction period.
What we expect is a rally now and again, we need to get back up and over 1423-1427 pivots this time and hold more than 24 hours, but the odds of a rally are now at 75% from here. IF we fail to hold the 1388 pivots, then the next levels are 1372 and 1363 to watch.
Bottom Line? Most metrics have been met for a wave pattern low, (Whether this be wave 4 or wave 2 doesnt much matter just yet) and the market now has a chance to start a wave 5 or wave 3 rally to the upside. Lets watch 1388 areas to hold first, then we will watch 1403, then 1423-1427 pivots to clear. We are neutral to bullish now after this washout
Back on Sept 25th we did a chart forecasting a drop to 1395-1400 as likely before the downtrend would end, now let’s see if the market can get some legs here. We have included that old chart here to show you how crowds are fairly predictable in their behavioral patterns in advance.
Consider joining us for free weekly reports, or you can get a subscription discount and daily reports at Market Trends Forecast.com
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
The SP 500 finally caved to match or go a bit lower than the SP 500 futures lows of about 11 days ago in yesterday’s action. The drop to the 1390 area is within our 1386-1400 pivot points for a major wave low pattern that we outlined as far back as September 25th for our subscribers.
Our work centers around sentiment and crowd behavior, the headlines are of interest but only tell you the psychology of the publishing arms or talking heads at the time. Often headlines can be negative and the market climbs, or positive and the market is dropping. So the key for our work is figuring out where we are in the sentiment patterns of the crowd, and then to anticipate the pivots ahead of time and invest accordingly.
In fact, in just 24 hours or so we had a 43 point SP 500 drop… this is interesting because the same thing happened at the June 2012 lows as well. Back then we had outlined pivots in the 1250-1270 areas as likely lows, and the market ended up bottoming at 1267. This bottom area yesterday fits within pivots we were able to anticipate 7 weeks ago, without any knowledge of the election or other headlines around the world.
Often, major washout days like yesterday centering around major news (Election) can create the final panic sell-off to complete a wave pattern of negative sentiment to the downside and then reverse the markets higher in new bullish pattern. To be sure, there are many sentiment headwinds like the Fiscal Cliff and more in the coming weeks…but markets tend to price all that in ahead of time right?
At yesterdays lows the market seems to have completed all requirements for a C wave of an ABC complicated decline from the 1474 SP 500 highs and so far an 8 Fibonacci week correction period.
What we expect is a rally now and again, we need to get back up and over 1423-1427 pivots this time and hold more than 24 hours, but the odds of a rally are now at 75% from here. IF we fail to hold the 1388 pivots, then the next levels are 1372 and 1363 to watch.
Bottom Line? Most metrics have been met for a wave pattern low, (Whether this be wave 4 or wave 2 doesnt much matter just yet) and the market now has a chance to start a wave 5 or wave 3 rally to the upside. Lets watch 1388 areas to hold first, then we will watch 1403, then 1423-1427 pivots to clear. We are neutral to bullish now after this washout
Back on Sept 25th we did a chart forecasting a drop to 1395-1400 as likely before the downtrend would end, now let’s see if the market can get some legs here. We have included that old chart here to show you how crowds are fairly predictable in their behavioral patterns in advance.
Consider joining us for free weekly reports, or you can get a subscription discount and daily reports at Market Trends Forecast.com
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
Post Election Trading Made Simple
Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen gives us his take on trading the post election markets.......
Over the past two months shares of gold (GLD) and Apple (AAPL) have had a sizable bite taken out of their share price. Active traders along with the longer term investors have had a wild ride this fall watching these investments slide to multi month lows. The big question is when will gold and apple shares bounce?
Here we are again with another election behind us and Barack Obama in the White House again. Many think this means four years of the same thing… Printing, Inflation and higher stock prices.
Is this good or bad for Americans or the world for that matter? I doubt it, but who really knows and who cares because there is nothing anyone can do about it now. So buckle up your seat belt and focus on trading and investing with major trend both within the United States and abroad using exchange traded funds.
Currently the broad stock market and commodities are in a full blown bull market so the focus should be to buy the dips until proven wrong. Here are some charts showing the important breakout levels for Apple, metals, oil and key indexes like the Russell 2000.....Check out "Post-Election Trading Made Simple"
Get Chris' Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Over the past two months shares of gold (GLD) and Apple (AAPL) have had a sizable bite taken out of their share price. Active traders along with the longer term investors have had a wild ride this fall watching these investments slide to multi month lows. The big question is when will gold and apple shares bounce?
Here we are again with another election behind us and Barack Obama in the White House again. Many think this means four years of the same thing… Printing, Inflation and higher stock prices.
Is this good or bad for Americans or the world for that matter? I doubt it, but who really knows and who cares because there is nothing anyone can do about it now. So buckle up your seat belt and focus on trading and investing with major trend both within the United States and abroad using exchange traded funds.
Currently the broad stock market and commodities are in a full blown bull market so the focus should be to buy the dips until proven wrong. Here are some charts showing the important breakout levels for Apple, metals, oil and key indexes like the Russell 2000.....Check out "Post-Election Trading Made Simple"
Get Chris' Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Another Layer of Bureaucracy for Oil and Gas Exploration in the US?
Federal and tribal lands hold large reserves of oil and natural gas. At a time when the United States desperately needs to move toward, not away from, energy independence, it makes no sense to let bureaucratic meddling effectively place these valuable domestic reserves out of reach. The problems with BLM's approach are myriad. BLM Misses the Mark
First, a central, federal, "one size fits all" approach does not work. The reserves that the oil and gas industry wants to access using hydraulic fracturing occur in areas with different geographic, topographic, hydrological, population, precipitation and umpteen other characteristics. The oil and gas deposits are found at different depths; the water table is at different depths. The surface and subsurface vary dramatically, ranging from the Marcellus Shale Formation in the Northeast to the San Juan Basin in the Southwest. States and tribes have long ago stepped up to the plate with sensible regulations suitable to their individual conditions. They are way ahead of BLM.
Second, even if states and tribes did not already have this under control, BLM's proposed regulations are inappropriate. The BLM regs are based on inaccurate assumptions, flawed economics and a perceived but actually nonexistent need.....
Read the entire article "Another Layer of Bureaucracy for Oil and Gas Exploration in the US"
Discover the Little Known Strategies, Tips and Ideas for Profiting in Today's Markets.....
Monday, November 5, 2012
Why E-Minis Are One of Our Favorite Markets
We here at the Crude Oil Trader don't talk about E-Mini trading a lot, but there's a reason why the E-Mini futures are one of our favorite markets to trade.....
They're just so darn consistent, the opportunities are easy to spot, and the potential for making daily income is unlike any market we've ever seen!
The problem is most people approach the E-Minis all wrong....
Well, that's about to change....
You'll see what we mean inside of the free video presentation our trading partner Todd Mitchell created for you here.
Not only will you discover the real reason why so many traders use the E-Minis to make money, but he shows you how you can start taking advantage of these opportunities regardless of how large or small your trading account is.
Access is limited [really, no kidding] and that's why we don't intend to leave this video up for long, so please be sure to watch it today!
In this video Todd will also teach you the 3 times of day that offer the most profitable trading opportunities (and when you want to stay out of the market!), how to pull in profits without struggle, a 4 - step sequence to boost your trading profits immediately, and a lot more.
This could be the game changer you are looking for...Click here to watch the video.
Happy trading and we'll see you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
They're just so darn consistent, the opportunities are easy to spot, and the potential for making daily income is unlike any market we've ever seen!
The problem is most people approach the E-Minis all wrong....
Well, that's about to change....
You'll see what we mean inside of the free video presentation our trading partner Todd Mitchell created for you here.
Not only will you discover the real reason why so many traders use the E-Minis to make money, but he shows you how you can start taking advantage of these opportunities regardless of how large or small your trading account is.
Access is limited [really, no kidding] and that's why we don't intend to leave this video up for long, so please be sure to watch it today!
In this video Todd will also teach you the 3 times of day that offer the most profitable trading opportunities (and when you want to stay out of the market!), how to pull in profits without struggle, a 4 - step sequence to boost your trading profits immediately, and a lot more.
This could be the game changer you are looking for...Click here to watch the video.
Happy trading and we'll see you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
Sunday, November 4, 2012
The Election Cycle – What to Expect in Stocks & Bond Prices
By: Chris Vermeulen of The Gold & Oil Guy.com.......
It is that time in the presidential cycle that gets everyone emotional and concerned with the future outlook of the United States. While everyone has their opinion on whom they think is best for America, I promised myself a long time ago to keep my thoughts to myself for two key reasons. ONE: only 50% of Americans will agree with me J, and TWO: I am Canadian so I do not experience what Americans go through on a daily basis.
My thinking is if Obama wins then we will see Quantitative Easing continue. And with the recent positive economic numbers on Friday it should give some confidence to investors that things are SLOWLY stabilizing (Bullish for Stocks). But, if Romney wins then we could see Quantitative Easing be cut or eliminated which is obviously bad for equities.
So, let’s just jump into the charts of what I feel will unfold in the next few days and months.
Using the season chart of the four year election cycle we can see what the Dow Jones Index has done in past election periods. Obviously every market environment is drastically different in each situation but overall we see stronger stock price. This is naturally a very emotional time for investors but once the election is finished most individuals become more confident simply because there is a leader that has four years to make things better and there is nothing they can do about it now and the campaigning and debating is over.
DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart:
Looking at the chart of Dow DIA Index fund you can see a 5-6 month cycle in the market which has a positive skew. Just so you understand what a positive skew is I will explain.
Positive Skew is when the market is trending up making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Because there are naturally more buyers during a bull market each cycle upswing lasts longer then when the cycle down downswing. So you get longer rallies which sends your secondary indicators (stochastics, volatility, put/call ratios, advance decline line etc…) in the overbought levels for extended periods of time. Those trying to pick a top continually get their head handed to them. The focus must be on buying the pullbacks. Keep in mind volatility is higher which meaning risk per trade is higher. Overall in the long run you stand a much higher chance of making money trading with the trend than trying counter trend trades (picking a top).
So as you can see below it looks like the stock market will be trying to put in the bottom over the next week or two which falls in line with our election cycle. It is very important to know that during intermediate cycle lows is where some of the biggest drops take place. These sharp drops are what is needed to cleanse the market one last time to shake as many traders with tight stops out of the market before it reverses and starts the next rally. I would like to see a 1-3 day market sell off as that would be the signature bottoming pattern I like to buy.
Bond Prices – Moving Against the Norm…..
Bond investors are some of the most conservative people in the market. They do not like to take risks so they dump their money into bonds to make a tiny profit in exchange for low risk (volatility). The nature of these investors put more money into bonds as we enter the election because they are nervous about not knowing who will be in control of the country.
After the election finished some money flows out of bonds and into stocks because there is now a president and direction for the country. Generally come the new year investors move to bonds as the safe haven as they try to figure out what their game plan is for new year.
So looking forward to this week and the next 2 months I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.
TLT Bond Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart:
Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking 1 – 2 weeks. Overall the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds breakout above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend.
Election Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:
Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.
Get my Daily Trading Analysis & Trade Setups at The Gold & Oil Guy.com
Chris Vermeulen
It is that time in the presidential cycle that gets everyone emotional and concerned with the future outlook of the United States. While everyone has their opinion on whom they think is best for America, I promised myself a long time ago to keep my thoughts to myself for two key reasons. ONE: only 50% of Americans will agree with me J, and TWO: I am Canadian so I do not experience what Americans go through on a daily basis.
My thinking is if Obama wins then we will see Quantitative Easing continue. And with the recent positive economic numbers on Friday it should give some confidence to investors that things are SLOWLY stabilizing (Bullish for Stocks). But, if Romney wins then we could see Quantitative Easing be cut or eliminated which is obviously bad for equities.
So, let’s just jump into the charts of what I feel will unfold in the next few days and months.
Using the season chart of the four year election cycle we can see what the Dow Jones Index has done in past election periods. Obviously every market environment is drastically different in each situation but overall we see stronger stock price. This is naturally a very emotional time for investors but once the election is finished most individuals become more confident simply because there is a leader that has four years to make things better and there is nothing they can do about it now and the campaigning and debating is over.
DIA – Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Chart:
Looking at the chart of Dow DIA Index fund you can see a 5-6 month cycle in the market which has a positive skew. Just so you understand what a positive skew is I will explain.
Positive Skew is when the market is trending up making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Because there are naturally more buyers during a bull market each cycle upswing lasts longer then when the cycle down downswing. So you get longer rallies which sends your secondary indicators (stochastics, volatility, put/call ratios, advance decline line etc…) in the overbought levels for extended periods of time. Those trying to pick a top continually get their head handed to them. The focus must be on buying the pullbacks. Keep in mind volatility is higher which meaning risk per trade is higher. Overall in the long run you stand a much higher chance of making money trading with the trend than trying counter trend trades (picking a top).
So as you can see below it looks like the stock market will be trying to put in the bottom over the next week or two which falls in line with our election cycle. It is very important to know that during intermediate cycle lows is where some of the biggest drops take place. These sharp drops are what is needed to cleanse the market one last time to shake as many traders with tight stops out of the market before it reverses and starts the next rally. I would like to see a 1-3 day market sell off as that would be the signature bottoming pattern I like to buy.
Bond Prices – Moving Against the Norm…..
Bond investors are some of the most conservative people in the market. They do not like to take risks so they dump their money into bonds to make a tiny profit in exchange for low risk (volatility). The nature of these investors put more money into bonds as we enter the election because they are nervous about not knowing who will be in control of the country.
After the election finished some money flows out of bonds and into stocks because there is now a president and direction for the country. Generally come the new year investors move to bonds as the safe haven as they try to figure out what their game plan is for new year.
So looking forward to this week and the next 2 months I would not be surprised to see bond prices rise or trade sideways while stocks move higher. This analysis is based on Obama winning. If Romney wins then I feel bonds will rally much more and stocks could sell off.
TLT Bond Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart:
Here is a chart of 20+ year bonds showing a possible reversal to the upside that could trigger as soon as next week. This chart is forward looking 1 – 2 weeks. Overall the trend remains down but if Romney wins I feel bonds breakout above the red resistance levels and trigger a new uptrend.
Election Year Trading Cycle Conclusion:
Next week is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. I generally do not like to trade or invest before news of this magnitude so trade smaller sizes if you do as price action could be wild.
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Chris Vermeulen
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Report
The December 2012 New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) decreased, from $3.776 per MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.692 per MMBtu yesterday. The November contract expired on October 29 at $3.471 per MMBtu.
Working natural gas in storage increased last week to 3,908 Bcf as of Friday, October 26, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage increase of 65 Bcf for the week moved storage levels 136 Bcf above year-ago levels.
The Baker Hughes Incorporated natural gas rotary rig count fell by 11 to 416 active units on the week ending October 26. The oil-directed rig count decreased by 2 to 1,408 units.
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