Time to check in with the staff at ONG and get their call for crude oil, natural gas and gold as we get ready to trade the shortened holiday week.....
Crude oil stayed in sideways trading above 84.05 last week and outlook remains unchanged. More consolidations would be seen in near term. But note that it's still staying well inside near term falling channel. And after all, as long as 89.22 minor resistance holds, deeper decline is still in favor. Below 84.05 will target 80 psychological level next. Though, we'd expect strong support ahead of 77.28 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target 93.66 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 110.55 will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
No change in the natural gas outlook. As long as 3.355 support holds, further rally is still expected. Rise fro 2.575 would extend to medium term channel resistance next (now at around 3.86). Break will target 4.0 psychological level. However, considering that it's near to important resistance level, break of 3.355 will indicate near term topping and would bring deeper pull back towards 55 days EMA (now at 3.327).
In the bigger picture, recent developments argued that medium term decline from 6.108 is completed at 1.902 already. It's bit early to confirm but bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD suggests that the down trend from 13.694 (2008 high) is possibly over too. Sustained break of the channel resistance (now at around 3.88) will set the stage for a test on 4.983 key resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 2.575 support will argue that the rebound from 1.902 is over and the medium larger down trend is still in progress for a new low.
In the longer term picture, decisive break of 3.255 resistance will be an important signal of long term bottoming reversal and could at least give a push to 4.983/6.108 resistance zone.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Gold lost momentum after hitting 1739.4 and spiraled lower from there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some more sideway trading. But another rise remain in favor as long as 1703.0 minor support holds. Above 1739.4 will extend the rebound from 1672.5. But we might see strong resistance ahead of 1798.1 high and bring another decline. Meanwhile, below 1703 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 50% retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Get our free workshop video: Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Free Workshop Video: Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Candlesticks, used by many....truly understood by few. As a special treat to Stock Market Club readers, Gary Wagner is offering you an in depth look into candlestick charting. Join co-founder of Wagner Financial Group. and acclaimed author as he walks you through set ups in ways you can take your candlestick charting to a new level.
In this video workshop you'll discover the crucial chart patterns that candlesticks reveal - how to interpret them and how to use them to pinpoint market turns. You'll also learn how to use candlesticks in combination with familiar technical indicators like Stochastics, %R, Relative Strength Index and Moving Averages to create a dynamic, synergistic and extremely successful trading system.
Click here to watch Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
In this video workshop you'll discover the crucial chart patterns that candlesticks reveal - how to interpret them and how to use them to pinpoint market turns. You'll also learn how to use candlesticks in combination with familiar technical indicators like Stochastics, %R, Relative Strength Index and Moving Averages to create a dynamic, synergistic and extremely successful trading system.
Click here to watch Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Charting
Thursday, November 15, 2012
EIA Weekly Natural Gas Update
* Natural gas prices generally registered overall increases for the report week (Wednesday to Wednesday) at many of the country’s trading locations. The Henry Hub price dipped during the early portion of the reporting period before rebounding to close at $3.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) yesterday (up 19 cents per MMBtu for the week).
* The natural gas futures market trended higher over most of the week. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the December 2012 natural gas contract gained 18.2 cents per MMBtu to close at $3.760 per MMBtu yesterday.
* Working natural gas in storage declined last week to 3,911 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, November 9, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (WNGSR). An implied storage withdrawal of 18 Bcf for the week positioned storage volumes 71 Bcf above year ago levels.
* The natural gas rotary rig count, as reported by Baker Hughes Incorporated on November 9, decreased by 11 to 413 active units. Meanwhile, oil directed rigs increased by 16 to 1,389 units.
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National Oilwell Varco Announces Increase in Regular Quarterly Dividend
Pete Miller, Chairman, President and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, "This dividend increase reflects the Company's strong financial condition and our confidence in our business going forward."
National Oilwell Varco is a worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, the provision of oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
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Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Halliburton Announces Nine Cent Dividend
Get more Halliburton info by visiting the company’s website at www.halliburton.com.
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Kinder Morgan’s El Paso Natural Gas Pipeline Signs Long Term Contract to Serve Customers in Mexico
According to Mark Kissel, president of Kinder Morgan’s Natural Gas Pipelines West Region, this natural gas infrastructure project would benefit both the United States and Mexico. “This agreement supports the ongoing development of the approximately $200 million Sasabe Lateral pipeline, which would create new jobs in Arizona, and also provide a market for transporting abundant, low-priced U.S. gas production to Mexico. In addition, the project will help Mexico meet its environmental goals of converting existing fuel oil fired power generation plants to efficient, clean burning natural gas and also having natural gas supplies available for new plants in the future.”
Read the entire news release
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E-Mini Success Formula is now LIVE!
We are LIVE, we are opening our E-Mini Success Formula to the public. I am well aware that only 1 out of 50 traders who receive this message will take action.
Most traders whine about the volatility in the market and secretly cower in the corner, stricken with fear at the possibility of getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Most traders publicly declare that they want more money, that they want more consistency in their trading, and that they want to spend more time with their family, but they prove otherwise by taking unnecessary risks, not trading with the probabilities in their favor, and spending too much time looking in all the wrong places when trying to make a trading decision.
And most traders will claim a trading mentor is too expensive, but they'll settle for making poor trading decisions, lack proper guidance, and be without trading methods that have helped thousands of traders improve their trading beyond what they might have been able to do themselves.
If you're dead serious about your financial future, if you're dead serious about making a difference for the people relying on you to succeed, if you're dead serious about trading results you can be proud of......then I urge you to be ready at exactly 12:00noon EST/9:00am PST to listen to our presentation as if it were the single most important thing you have ever heard, because it just might be just that.
This is the last time this will be open to the public this year and open enrollment will not be available for some time.
Just visit...."E-Mini Success Formula is LIVE!"
Most traders whine about the volatility in the market and secretly cower in the corner, stricken with fear at the possibility of getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.
Most traders publicly declare that they want more money, that they want more consistency in their trading, and that they want to spend more time with their family, but they prove otherwise by taking unnecessary risks, not trading with the probabilities in their favor, and spending too much time looking in all the wrong places when trying to make a trading decision.
And most traders will claim a trading mentor is too expensive, but they'll settle for making poor trading decisions, lack proper guidance, and be without trading methods that have helped thousands of traders improve their trading beyond what they might have been able to do themselves.
If you're dead serious about your financial future, if you're dead serious about making a difference for the people relying on you to succeed, if you're dead serious about trading results you can be proud of......then I urge you to be ready at exactly 12:00noon EST/9:00am PST to listen to our presentation as if it were the single most important thing you have ever heard, because it just might be just that.
This is the last time this will be open to the public this year and open enrollment will not be available for some time.
Just visit...."E-Mini Success Formula is LIVE!"
The Aftershock Investor says It's Time to go with Gold
Robert Wiedemer, co author of "The Aftershock Investor" says go with gold. [click here to get your copy on Amazon.com], Wiedemer says investors should stick with gold as the government continues to print money and he has some interesting thoughts on the numerous "bubble pops" we are experiencing right now.
Monday, November 12, 2012
Non-OPEC Oil Supply Outages Remain Above Year Ago Level
How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?
The volume of unplanned oil production disruptions among countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of several key measurements of global oil supply security. Unplanned non OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year were almost twice the amount experienced in the last three months of 2011.
Global surplus capacity, another key metric of global oil supply security, currently remains relatively tight by historical standards, and is estimated at 2.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. (The estimate for global surplus capacity does not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran, but which is currently offline due to the impacts of U.S. and European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.) Tighter global surplus capacity, coupled with an elevated volume of non OPEC supply disruptions, has placed upward price pressure this year on Brent crude, a benchmark for the global oil price.
Conflict, tariff disputes, worker strikes, natural disasters, and maintenance related problems were some of the prominent issues that caused several countries to reduce or shut in oil production in 2012 (see chart). As a result, unplanned non-OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year averaged almost twice the level of disruptions experienced during the last three months of 2011, which is more representative of historical norms.
Recently, unplanned non-OPEC supply outages have declined, from an average of about 1.1 million bbl/d in both August and September to 0.9 million bbl/d in October. This is mainly due to the return of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico, which was temporarily curtailed by Hurricane Isaac in August and September of 2012. Nonetheless, an above normal volume of non OPEC production remains offline due to large outages in Syria and South Sudan, which together accounted for almost two thirds of the total non OPEC unplanned outages in October. Non-OPEC supply outages represented nearly 2% of the total non OPEC supply, which averaged 52.7 million bbl/d in October.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, and its impact on oil prices arguably transcends disrupted volumes in that country, as concerns grow about the risk of regional spillover effects from the conflict. The government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production last month, and production is expected to gradually resume within the next few months. South Sudan has signed an agreement with Sudan on oil export fees and security arrangements; however, some post independence issues such as border demarcation, rights to the disputed Abyei region, and claims for compensation of seized assets still remain unresolved.
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The volume of unplanned oil production disruptions among countries not in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of several key measurements of global oil supply security. Unplanned non OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year were almost twice the amount experienced in the last three months of 2011.
Global surplus capacity, another key metric of global oil supply security, currently remains relatively tight by historical standards, and is estimated at 2.0 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in October. (The estimate for global surplus capacity does not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran, but which is currently offline due to the impacts of U.S. and European Union (EU) sanctions on Iran's ability to sell its oil.) Tighter global surplus capacity, coupled with an elevated volume of non OPEC supply disruptions, has placed upward price pressure this year on Brent crude, a benchmark for the global oil price.
Conflict, tariff disputes, worker strikes, natural disasters, and maintenance related problems were some of the prominent issues that caused several countries to reduce or shut in oil production in 2012 (see chart). As a result, unplanned non-OPEC oil supply outages during the first 10 months of this year averaged almost twice the level of disruptions experienced during the last three months of 2011, which is more representative of historical norms.
Recently, unplanned non-OPEC supply outages have declined, from an average of about 1.1 million bbl/d in both August and September to 0.9 million bbl/d in October. This is mainly due to the return of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico, which was temporarily curtailed by Hurricane Isaac in August and September of 2012. Nonetheless, an above normal volume of non OPEC production remains offline due to large outages in Syria and South Sudan, which together accounted for almost two thirds of the total non OPEC unplanned outages in October. Non-OPEC supply outages represented nearly 2% of the total non OPEC supply, which averaged 52.7 million bbl/d in October.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate, and its impact on oil prices arguably transcends disrupted volumes in that country, as concerns grow about the risk of regional spillover effects from the conflict. The government of South Sudan ordered oil companies to restart production last month, and production is expected to gradually resume within the next few months. South Sudan has signed an agreement with Sudan on oil export fees and security arrangements; however, some post independence issues such as border demarcation, rights to the disputed Abyei region, and claims for compensation of seized assets still remain unresolved.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Sunday, November 11, 2012
How do Hedge Funds Trade the First 30 Minutes the Markets are Open?
We have been day trading for years, back to the days when we got excited that we could now use this new technology and fax our orders in. And so much has changed over the years on the technology side. But a lot of things still have not changed one bit. Most importantly is the ability to use market psychology when getting the upper hand on traders and investors on the other side of your trades.
Yes, it's true.....we all can't be winners. There is a losing trade on the other side of every one of your winning trades. And I still, after all these years, believe that most of those losing trades are being placed by retail and professional traders that insist on breaking the rules of Trading 101. The pros know them better then anybody and they still continue to allow their emotions to dictate their trades.
That's why I have partnered with my friend Todd Mitchell in promoting his New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy. This is a time tested system that takes your emotion out of the equation and allows you to make your trades in the first 30 minutes that the market is open, then go on with your life. Regardless of news cycles and market reactions. I am buying this for myself, we have traders in our family and our shop that will benefit from the immensely. So should you.
It's free to sign up, watch Todd's video and ask him questions about the program and the way the system works. This is the guy that hedge fund managers are sending their new employees to so they can use the system in their shops. Why wouldn't you take a minute to sign up, read the comments traders are leaving about the program and ask Todd your own questions.
OK, enough of me....I need to get ready for the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday.
See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
Just Click Here for "The New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy"
Yes, it's true.....we all can't be winners. There is a losing trade on the other side of every one of your winning trades. And I still, after all these years, believe that most of those losing trades are being placed by retail and professional traders that insist on breaking the rules of Trading 101. The pros know them better then anybody and they still continue to allow their emotions to dictate their trades.
That's why I have partnered with my friend Todd Mitchell in promoting his New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy. This is a time tested system that takes your emotion out of the equation and allows you to make your trades in the first 30 minutes that the market is open, then go on with your life. Regardless of news cycles and market reactions. I am buying this for myself, we have traders in our family and our shop that will benefit from the immensely. So should you.
It's free to sign up, watch Todd's video and ask him questions about the program and the way the system works. This is the guy that hedge fund managers are sending their new employees to so they can use the system in their shops. Why wouldn't you take a minute to sign up, read the comments traders are leaving about the program and ask Todd your own questions.
OK, enough of me....I need to get ready for the first 30 minutes of trading on Monday.
See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO at The Crude Oil Trader
Just Click Here for "The New 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout Strategy"
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