Gold and gold miner stocks have underperformed in 2012 disappointing most traders. That being said it has traded in a large sideways range since September 2011 and remains stuck in this range as of this week. Investments trading sideways are not my preferred investment of choice because some commodities and stocks for that matter can trade sideways for years before making another bull market rally.
That being said in the last six months gold has started to show life that a new bull market may be starting. 2013 is starting to look as though gold, silver and precious metals miners could lead the market higher if they can break out of their basing patterns. Until we get more bullish price action I am not planning to get long.
Let's take a look at the gold ETF and Gold Miner charts
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Monday, January 14, 2013
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Icahn Seeking Approval to Acquire Voting Securities in Transocean RIG
Additionally, pursuant to the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, Mr. Icahn has notified Transocean that Icahn is seeking approval to potentially acquire voting securities of Transocean in an amount exceeding the $682.1 million Hart-Scott-Rodino threshold, but less than that Act's threshold of 25% of the outstanding voting securities, depending upon various factors.
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Saturday, January 12, 2013
Halliburton Uses Clean Burning Natural Gas to Power a Fracturing Fleet
Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Apache Corporation and Caterpillar have developed innovative dual fuel technology capable of safely and efficiently powering the pumping equipment used for fracturing treatments with a mixture of natural gas and diesel. With 12 pumps (24,000 horsepower), this is one of the largest scale dual fuel projects ever conducted in the oil and gas industry.
G. Steven Farris, Chairman and CEO of Apache and the Chairman of America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA), encouraged Apache and the industry to increase the use of natural gas as a fuel for engines. In response, Halliburton developed a technical solution for converting the pumping equipment used at a typical large scale fracturing spread to a dual fuel system including natural gas. One that would be more efficient and cleaner burning than using diesel alone.
Halliburton and its supplier, Caterpillar, teamed up to convert the company’s new Q-10 pumps to dual fuel with a technology that would safely and efficiently accommodate high quality liquefied or compressed natural gas. Collaborating closely with Halliburton and Apache to cover a wide range of performance, environmental and efficiency criteria, Caterpillar adapted its proprietary Dynamic Gas Blending (DGB) engine technology to power Halliburton’s massive pumps.
“We anticipate that in the not so distant future, these DGB engines can be easily retrofitted to efficiently burn available on site conditioned field gas, thereby saving operators additional fuel transport costs,” said Marc Edwards, Senior Vice President of Halliburton’s Completion and Production Division.
Read the entire article at Halliburton.com
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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for January 12th
It's that time of the week when we check in with the great staff at Oil N'Gold.com. Can crude oil stay in a bullish pattern? Let's see how ONG will be trading crude oil, natural gas and gold this week.....
Crude oil rose further to as as high as 94.70 last week and and breached 61.8% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 94.17 before retreating mildly. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 91.52 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 94.17 will pave the way for a retest on 100.42 key resistance level. However, note bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 91.52 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 90 psychological level and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 100.42 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Natural gas attempted to resume recent fall last week but was contained above 3.05 support and recovered again. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation from 3.05 might extend further. But overall outlook remains unchanged. Considering that it's limited by medium term falling trend line, whole rally from 1.902 might be finished at 3.93 already. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 3.507 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 3.933 at 2.678 on break of 3.05.
In the bigger picture, the bounce off from the long term falling channel resistance for 6.108 retained the case that such decline isn't finished. Break of 2.575 support should make a new low below 1.902 to extend the whole long term down trend. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 2.575, followed by break of 3.933 resistance, will revive that case of long term reversal and target a test on 4.983 key resistance.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Gold's recovery from 1626 extended further last week as consolidation continued. But with 1695.4 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected. Below 1626 will extend the whole decline from 1798.1 to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1695.4 will indicate reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1755.0 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Crude oil rose further to as as high as 94.70 last week and and breached 61.8% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 94.17 before retreating mildly. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 91.52 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 94.17 will pave the way for a retest on 100.42 key resistance level. However, note bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 91.52 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 90 psychological level and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 100.42 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Natural gas attempted to resume recent fall last week but was contained above 3.05 support and recovered again. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation from 3.05 might extend further. But overall outlook remains unchanged. Considering that it's limited by medium term falling trend line, whole rally from 1.902 might be finished at 3.93 already. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 3.507 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 3.933 at 2.678 on break of 3.05.
In the bigger picture, the bounce off from the long term falling channel resistance for 6.108 retained the case that such decline isn't finished. Break of 2.575 support should make a new low below 1.902 to extend the whole long term down trend. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 2.575, followed by break of 3.933 resistance, will revive that case of long term reversal and target a test on 4.983 key resistance.
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Gold's recovery from 1626 extended further last week as consolidation continued. But with 1695.4 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected. Below 1626 will extend the whole decline from 1798.1 to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1695.4 will indicate reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1755.0 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Trading Strategies are the Key to Success
In this video John Carter lays out some of his exact trades, and detailed trade strategies on some of his favorite trades.
Watch the video and watch him make some big trades, and he'll show you how YOU can do the same.
Normally these videos are for members only, but as a reader at The Crude Oil Trader John has agreed to make this video available to you, no strings attached.
Just click here to enjoy the video!
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader
Thursday, January 10, 2013
EIA: Average 2012 Crude Oil Prices Remain Near 2011 Levels
Average crude oil prices in 2012 were at historically high levels for the second year in a row. Brent crude oil averaged $111.67 per barrel, slightly above the 2011 average of $111.26. West Texas Intermediate oil averaged $94.05 per barrel in 2012, down slightly from $94.88 in 2011.
The differential between Brent and WTI spot prices historically was just a few dollars per barrel in either direction. In 2011, the Brent premium over WTI averaged $16.38 per barrel; however, in 2012 this premium widened to $17.61 per barrel.
The significant events in 2012 include:
* U.S. crude oil production rose by an estimated 780,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, the largest yearly increase to date.
* The surge in crude oil production led to crude oil stocks held in land-locked Cushing, Oklahoma, which is a major pricing point for crude oil, that resulted in record-high end of month stock levels from April through December.
* The United States remained a significant net oil importer when levels of crude oil and petroleum products are added together.
* After Brent fell below $90/bbl in late June and WTI dropped below $80/bbl, prices rebounded in July on expectations that policymakers in the United States, Europe, and China would take action to stimulate economic growth, which could increase oil demand. * Disruptions in oil production in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the North Sea reduced available global supplies, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
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The differential between Brent and WTI spot prices historically was just a few dollars per barrel in either direction. In 2011, the Brent premium over WTI averaged $16.38 per barrel; however, in 2012 this premium widened to $17.61 per barrel.
The significant events in 2012 include:
* U.S. crude oil production rose by an estimated 780,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, the largest yearly increase to date.
* The surge in crude oil production led to crude oil stocks held in land-locked Cushing, Oklahoma, which is a major pricing point for crude oil, that resulted in record-high end of month stock levels from April through December.
* The United States remained a significant net oil importer when levels of crude oil and petroleum products are added together.
* After Brent fell below $90/bbl in late June and WTI dropped below $80/bbl, prices rebounded in July on expectations that policymakers in the United States, Europe, and China would take action to stimulate economic growth, which could increase oil demand. * Disruptions in oil production in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the North Sea reduced available global supplies, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
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Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Taking Advantage of Recent Lows in the Volatility Index
With the VIX sinking there is nobody better to guide us through a trade on the VIX then todays contributor, COT staffer J.W. Jones.....
One of the newest option products to appear in our universe as an options trader is the option series designed to trade the volatility index (VIX). The VIX is a measurement of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index.
To review quickly, the implied volatility of an options series is reflective of the aggregate market opinion of the future volatility of a given underlying asset. In terms of the Volatility Index, the price is the current market opinion of the future volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next 12 months.
As are all attempts to predict the future, this value does not always reflect accurately the actual volatility as it plays out prospectively, but at a practical level it is the best we can do. As sage philosophers have long noted, “the future isn’t what it used to be.”
The importance for traders is the well established and generally known inverse correlation between prices for the given underlying and the measure of implied volatility, in this case our VIX value. What is typically less known is the fact that levels of implied volatility correlate even more closely to the velocity of the price move of the underlying asset in question.......Read J.W.'s entire article and check out the charts
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One of the newest option products to appear in our universe as an options trader is the option series designed to trade the volatility index (VIX). The VIX is a measurement of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index.
To review quickly, the implied volatility of an options series is reflective of the aggregate market opinion of the future volatility of a given underlying asset. In terms of the Volatility Index, the price is the current market opinion of the future volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next 12 months.
As are all attempts to predict the future, this value does not always reflect accurately the actual volatility as it plays out prospectively, but at a practical level it is the best we can do. As sage philosophers have long noted, “the future isn’t what it used to be.”
The importance for traders is the well established and generally known inverse correlation between prices for the given underlying and the measure of implied volatility, in this case our VIX value. What is typically less known is the fact that levels of implied volatility correlate even more closely to the velocity of the price move of the underlying asset in question.......Read J.W.'s entire article and check out the charts
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Baker Hughes Announces December 2012 Rig Counts
The average U.S. rig count for December 2012 was 1,784, down 25 from the 1,809 counted in November 2012 and down 219 from the 2,003 counted in December 2011. The average Canadian rig count for December 2012 was 353, down 31 from the 384 counted in November 2012 and down 76 from the 429 counted in December 2011.
The worldwide rig count for December 2012 was 3,390, down 70 from the 3,460 counted in November 2012 and down 222 from the 3,612 counted in December 2011.
Here is the Baker Hughes official release and charts
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Monday, January 7, 2013
EIA Video: Cumulative Natural Gas Wells Drilled in Pennsylvania
Between 2009 and 2011, Pennsylvania's natural gas production more than quadrupled due to expanded horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. This drilling activity, which is concentrated in shale formations that cover a broad swath of the state, mirrors trends seen in the Barnett shale formation in Texas.
The animation illustrates Pennsylvania's relatively recent transition from conventional vertical wells (black diamonds) to horizontal wells (red diamonds), drilled mostly in sections of the Marcellus, Utica, and Geneseo/Burket shale formations located in the northeast and southwest portions of the state. The animation also shows that as horizontal drilling increased, the number of vertical wells [which are typically less productive] fell, resulting in an overall decline in the state's new well count.
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The animation illustrates Pennsylvania's relatively recent transition from conventional vertical wells (black diamonds) to horizontal wells (red diamonds), drilled mostly in sections of the Marcellus, Utica, and Geneseo/Burket shale formations located in the northeast and southwest portions of the state. The animation also shows that as horizontal drilling increased, the number of vertical wells [which are typically less productive] fell, resulting in an overall decline in the state's new well count.
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Saturday, January 5, 2013
A Technical Update on the Mini Crash in GOLD
If you follow one trader for gold trades make it COT staffer David Banister. Today David shows us what he sees "in the waves"......
Let’s make one thing clear; nobody I know including myself predicted that Gold would drop from 1690 to 1625 inside of 48 hours this week. That was not in the charts and so I won’t even pretend I was going to see that train coming through the tunnel.
With that said, let’s try to let the dust settle but take a look objectively at some possibilities.
1. We all know that some FOMC minutes released did in fact cause some major downside in GOLD based on potential for eventual end to QE in the US down the road. It did cause stops to trigger, probably some margin calls, and then more stops creating a mini crash of near 4% on the Metal.
2. The ABC pattern appeared to be completed at 1634 last week, especially when we rallied over 1681 pivot. A brief dip to 1625 spot took place this morning early, and we now trade again around the 1631 pivot.
What are the technical options?
Well if we stick with traditional Elliott Wave Theory, we can see a potential 3-3-5 pattern still unfolding and wave 5 of C is now in play. 3-3-5 patterns have 3 waves down, 3 up, then 5 down to complete the entire ABC Structure.
To confirm this, we will want to see GOLD bottom here fairly soon in wave 5 of C.
Below is the updated chart of GLD ETF showing you this pattern. It’s the best I can do right now. I will keep you updated as things unfold. To be sure, I count this as cycle year 13 in the Gold bull market and I had Gold peaking in June of 2013 at 2280-2400 ranges per ounce, but we will have to see now if that is still valid or not based on whether this C wave can hold and reverse hard soon.
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Let’s make one thing clear; nobody I know including myself predicted that Gold would drop from 1690 to 1625 inside of 48 hours this week. That was not in the charts and so I won’t even pretend I was going to see that train coming through the tunnel.
With that said, let’s try to let the dust settle but take a look objectively at some possibilities.
1. We all know that some FOMC minutes released did in fact cause some major downside in GOLD based on potential for eventual end to QE in the US down the road. It did cause stops to trigger, probably some margin calls, and then more stops creating a mini crash of near 4% on the Metal.
2. The ABC pattern appeared to be completed at 1634 last week, especially when we rallied over 1681 pivot. A brief dip to 1625 spot took place this morning early, and we now trade again around the 1631 pivot.
What are the technical options?
Well if we stick with traditional Elliott Wave Theory, we can see a potential 3-3-5 pattern still unfolding and wave 5 of C is now in play. 3-3-5 patterns have 3 waves down, 3 up, then 5 down to complete the entire ABC Structure.
To confirm this, we will want to see GOLD bottom here fairly soon in wave 5 of C.
Below is the updated chart of GLD ETF showing you this pattern. It’s the best I can do right now. I will keep you updated as things unfold. To be sure, I count this as cycle year 13 in the Gold bull market and I had Gold peaking in June of 2013 at 2280-2400 ranges per ounce, but we will have to see now if that is still valid or not based on whether this C wave can hold and reverse hard soon.
Consider joining us for free weekly reports
Check out our free video series "Simpler Options Trading Strategies"
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