Precious Metals & Miners Making Waves and New Trends

The precious metals sector has been dormant since both gold and silver topped in 2011. But the long term bull market remains intact. As long as we do not have the price of gold close below the lower yellow box on the monthly chart then technical speaking precious metals should continue much higher.

Large consolidation periods (yellow boxes) provide investors with great insight for investments looking forward 6-18 months upon a breakout in either direction (up or down). The issue with investing during these times is the passage of time. One can hold a position for months and sometimes years having their investments fluctuate adding extra stress to their life when they really do not need to.

Once a breakout takes place a powerful rally or decline will start putting an investors’ money to work within days of committing to that particular investment compared to money invested waiting months for the breakout and new capital gains to occur.

Gold Price Chart – Monthly

 

Gold Price Chart – Daily

The chart of gold continues to form a large bull flag pattern with a potential 3 or 5 wave correction. If price reverses this week and breaks above the upper resistance trend line then it will be a 3 (ABC) wave correction which is very bullish. But there is potential for a full 5 wave correction which is still bullish, but it just means we have another month or two before metals bottom.


 

Gold Miner Stocks – GDX ETF Chart – Daily

Gold miners do not have the sexiest looking chart. It was formed a strong looking bull flag but has continues to correct and is not nearing a key support level. This level could act as a triple bottom (bullish) or if price breaks below then it would be breaking then neckline of a massive head and shoulders pattern which points to 50% decline. I remain bullish with the longer term gold trend until proven wrong.



Silver Price Chart – Daily

Silver remains in a long term bull market much like the monthly chart of gold shown earlier in this report. Silver continues to work its way through a large bull flag pattern with a positive outlook at this time.



Silver Miner Stocks – SIL ETF – Daily Chart

Reviewing the precious metals sector it seems that silver miners have the sexiest looking chart. All price patterns are showing strength and are in proportion to one other. If this chart plays out to what technical analysis is pointing to then we could see the precious metals sector put in a bottom and rally within the next week or two. And if this is the case then silver miner stocks should provide the most opportunity going forward.



Precious Metals Trading Conclusion:

In short, what you need to focus on is the yellow consolidation box on the monthly gold chart. A breaking in either direction will trigger a massive move that should last 6-18 months. Until then long term investors can simply sit back and watch the sector while they put their money to work in other active sectors.

From a short term traders point of view, that of mine. I am looking for a signs of a bottom on the daily chart to get my money working earlier to play the bounce/rally that takes place and actively managing the position until a breakout occurs. The charts overall are not that clear as to when a breakout will take place. Metals could start to rally next week or in a few months and all we can do is wait for a reversal to the upside before we get active.

Knowing the big picture trends and patterns at play along with major support and resistance levels (breakout levels) is crucial for success and piece of mind.

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Jim Jubak: Why I added Targa to my Dividend Income Portfolio

Jim Jubak is still one of the go to guys if you are managing your own fund with a long term state of mind. With MLP's getting so much attention it's worth paying attention when the smart guys in the room are making a move.....

I added Targa Resources Partners (NGLS) to my Dividend Income portfolio on January 11 because the units offer a really attractive potential for dividend growth and capital gains. The current dividend, at 6.81% on January 11, isn’t any too shabby either. For the most recent update on that portfolio see my post at Jubak Picks.com.

The big upside here comes from Targa’s acquisition of oil and natural gas pipelines from Saddle Butte Pipeline that for the first time moved Targa into the Bakken shale formation of North Dakota that is the heart of the U.S. oil boom. The deal also gave Targa its first oil pipelines before that Targa had been a natural gas only pipeline play. The North Dakota oil boom is currently very underserved by pipelines, which gives pipeline companies with footholds in the area, and that now includes Targa, an opportunity to invest today’s cheap money in profitable new capital projects.

After the deal Targa reiterated its projections for 10% growth in distributions to holders of the MLP (master limited partnership) units in 2013 from 2012 levels. And the assets added in the deal look to me like they take some of the risk out of Targa’s cash flow. The company has been moving to increase the share of its revenue that comes from fee based transportation of natural gas liquids from 37% in the last twelve months to a projected 55% by the end of 2014. Fee based rather than price based revenue gives Targa protection from what looks like a developing oversupply of natural gas liquids.

I think Targa can easily grow distributions by 9% or so a year over the next few years. That distribution and dividend growth gives Targa, and investors in Targa, protection from a return of inflation or from rising interest rates.

I calculate a one year target price of $44 for Targa.

Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. The mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund http://jubakfund.com/, may or may not now own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did not own shares of Targa as of the end of September. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of September see the fund’s portfolio at Jubak Fund Holdings.


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Who are the Top 10 Drillers in the U.S.?

Here's the top 10 land drillers in the U.S. as of January 18th, 2013. I'll admit, there was some surprises here for us.

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Natural Gas Futures Lower after Inventory Report

A bullish weekly inventory report was not enough to push the Nat Gas futures market back into positive territory nor was the latest NOAA short term weather forecast which was more supportive than the previous day's forecast. The Nat Gas market may be slowly moving into a mode of too little too late so to speak as February is the only month of the remaining winter heating season that is currently projected to experience winter like weather over major portions of the country.

NOAA's six to ten day and eight to fourteen day forecasts are both showing a larger portion of the country expecting more winter like weather especially in the 8 to fourteen day forecast. At the moment both of these forecasts are starting to line up with the 90 day forecast for the month of February issued about a week or so ago. Next week's inventory withdrawal will be bullish versus both the previous year and the more normal five year average.

If the actual weather is in sync with NOAA latest short term forecasts the withdrawals should come in around normal maybe a bit higher through the first week of February. However, as I have been indicating for weeks the winter heating season is running out of time to have a major impact on the ending inventory levels at the end of the heating season.....continue reading.

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EIA: Political risks focus attention on supply of Venezuelan oil to the United States

Uncertainty about the health of Hugo Chávez, Venezuela's president, has raised interest in understanding Venezuela's contribution to U.S. oil supply. Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), ranks among the 15 largest global oil producers and is the United States's fourth-largest source of imported oil, behind Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico. Meanwhile, the United States, the world's largest oil consumer and oil importer, is the leading destination for Venezuelan oil exports.



Venezuela and the United States (the U.S. Gulf Coast in particular) are naturally attractive oil-trading partners because of their geographic proximity and a lack of transit chokepoints between them. Furthermore, the robust trade in crude oil from Venezuela to the United States is due to the compatibility between the configuration of some U.S. refineries and the quality characteristics of Venezuelan crude, which is predominately sour (high sulfur content) and medium or heavy (lower degrees of API gravity, meaning it has a higher density). The U.S. Gulf Coast has a concentration of sophisticated refineries (including some wholly or partially owned by Citgo Petroleum Corp.....Read the entire EIA article


Don't miss Precious Metals and Stocks Poised to Ramp Higher in 2013

Precious Metals and Stocks Poised to Ramp Higher in 2013

It’s been a long drawn out corrective affair with the precious metals since the August-September 2011 top that seems so long ago right now. During that last spike period where Gold rallied to just over $1900 per ounce, we had mentioned many times in articles and to our subscribers that GOLD was likely peaking in a wave 3 of excitement and high powered bullish sentiment. The “tells” were the articles, the CNBC mentions, the daily “CNBC GOLD” ticker at the top of their screen, and the cover of a major magazine.

Since that time, we believe GOLD has been consolidating in what we term a “wave 4” correction, which is a milder version than some others. This is part and parcel of a 5 wave rally pattern and wave 4 is necessary to cool the engines of overbought sentiment and public love of the metals. These wave 4 patterns can take many forms and shapes, but this one appears to be an irregular ABC Version which we have outlined below on the weekly chart views. The length of period of time is nearing 18 months in total, but the lows in the 1550’s were already marking price bottom territories, and now it seems more of a matter of time before we see wave 5 up really take off.

This means that Gold and Silver Exploration stocks are very cheap as well, because the senior producers are seeing their stockpiles whittled away while their grades deteriorate at the same time. Once GOLD pops over $1750 per ounce we should see a rally in all the Gold Stocks, but especially in the exploration plays, which are historically undervalued here. Take a look at our GDJX Junior Exploration Stocks chart at the bottom of this article as well. It will need some help to break the downtrend, but again we think the odds are in the savvy investors favor to speculate on a select few in this sector.

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Market Trend Forecast

 

 

 

Signs that a Correction Maybe Near in the SPX, RUT & DJIA

The great market prognosticators have by now came out with their 2013 predictions about financial markets. It seems to me to be a fool’s game to try to predict what financial markets are going to do in the future.

I want to be clear in stating that I do not know what is going to happen in the future. I do not know where the S&P 500 Index is going to trade tomorrow let alone 6 months from now. Most market pundits simply will not admit to this fact.

These same market pundits seemingly are unable to be honest about their own fallibility. In their own mind they believe it undermines their credibility or will hurt their forward sales for some book or strategy they are going to unveil. I for one do not prescribe to that notion, I believe in telling the truth.

The truth is that these so called market experts do not know anymore than you or I about price action in the distant future. However, what I do know is that forward price action remains a mystery until its unveiled in the present.

Instead of wasting time discussing potential price action in the future, why not focus on a few pieces of information that have occurred that are known facts right now. I think the chart below points out that in the intermediate time frame, equity indexes are reaching extreme overbought conditions.



As can be seen above, the number of stocks trading above their 50 period moving averages is reaching close to the highest levels in the past 5 years. Many times when these price levels have been reached we witness a correction at the very least and any short-term gains are usually given back in short order. This is not to say that prices are going to sell-off tomorrow or in the next few weeks, however it is a warning that a correction is likely lurking in the not-so-distant future.

To help confirm this notion, a quick look at the Volatility Index (VIX) demonstrates just how much complacency there is in the short term spot VIX price which is currently trading below 5 year lows. For novice readers when the VIX moves lower the outcome is typically bullish for the S&P 500 Index and when the VIX moves higher the reaction is typically bearish in terms of the S&P 500 Index.



As can be seen above, the VIX is trading near the bottom of its recent range. This helps confirm the strength we have seen the past few weeks, however a reversal seems likely in the near future. Should the VIX pick up considerably it would have a negative impact on the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, if we go out several months in time the Volatility Index Term Structure steepens wildly.

What this means is that traders and money managers have bid up forward VIX contracts in an attempt to hedge against a variety of perceived risk. I would also point out that at the moment February monthly options contracts are cheap relative to their historical volatility levels. However, the VIX could rally violently higher should the appropriate chain of events take place in the months ahead.

There are several catalysts in the short-term which will have a major impact on price action for the broader indexes. This coming week we will have earnings from major companies such as IBM, AAPL, and GOOG which all have the potential to move the tape significantly in either direction.

The other more obvious short-term inflection point is the dreaded U.S. debt ceiling debacle which is likely to begin permeating the financial media as the deadline for action draws near. In recent history both houses of Congress and the Executive Branch have struggled to achieve compromise until the 11th hour. The fiscal cliff was one issue, but the debt ceiling issue has the potential to have a major impact on financial markets.

Just to put into context what happened back in 2011 when Congress could not reach a compromise regarding a debt ceiling increase, the S&P 500 Index had the following reaction as shown below.



Obviously there are significant unknowns regarding how the debt ceiling process will unfold in 2013. However, what is known is that should the politicians wait until the 11th hour equity indexes could force their hands yet again.

Additionally the threat of credit rating agencies downgrading U.S. government debt is a major concern. The outcome of this decision alone has the potential to devastate investment portfolios should the government have a partial shutdown as a result of a failure to reach an agreement regarding the debt ceiling.

What is important to understand is that the longer-term price action in the future is impossible to know at this point. We have major earnings reports which are about to be released over the next few weeks which presents significant risks to the broader indexes in both directions. Furthermore we have a major macro event that is facing us and will have to be addressed in the next 5 – 8 weeks.

The outcome of these events as this point is entirely unknown. I would also point out that in 2011 prior to the debt ceiling debacle we saw equity prices rally higher in late June of 2011 while the VIX traded down near recent lows at that time. After a period of consolidation equity indexes remained patient and gave the politicians time.

Eventually the price action in risk assets forced both political parties and the President to come together. As shown in the chart above, the S&P 500 lost nearly 19% in less than 4 weeks of trading sessions. Even the most skeptical politician was forced into submission by Wall Street and the financial media.

Will history rhyme with the recent past? Will we see a compromise in advance of the dreaded shutdown date? Will the debt ceiling outcome create a major paradigm shift in U.S. financial markets and U.S. politics?

Unfortunately, there is no one that can tell us with any certainty what is about to happen in the next 5 – 8 weeks, let alone later this year. After all of the forthcoming analysis and discussion in the weeks ahead, price action will continue to remain a mystery until the debt ceiling situation is behind us. Until then, caution is warranted in both price directions. Trade safe.

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Chris Vermeulen & J.W. Jones....The Active Trading Partners

The Traders Video Playbook

How to Trade Options Around Company Earnings....Example Apple AAPL

The hallmark of a professional option trader is the ability to use a wide variety of trade structures in order to exploit opportunities to profit from specific situations the market presents. One of the opportunities routinely presented multiple times yearly is the impending release of earnings.

Underlying the logic of earnings trades is the stereotypic pattern of increasing implied volatility of options as earnings approach. This pattern is so reliably present that experienced options traders can recognize the approximate date of an impending earnings release by simply perusing the implied volatility of the various series of upcoming options.

As a real time example of this phenomenon, consider the current option chain of AAPL which will report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, January 23rd.....Let's look at how this sets up.


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Schlumberger Releases Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2012 Results

Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) today reported full year 2012 revenue of $42.15 billion versus $36.96 billion in 2011.

Full year 2012 income from continuing operations attributable to Schlumberger, excluding charges and credits, was $5.58 billion, representing diluted earnings per share of $4.17 versus $3.61 in 2011.

Fourth Quarter Results

Fourth-quarter 2012 revenue was $11.17 billion versus $10.61 billion in the third quarter of 2012, and $10.30 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Income from continuing operations attributable to Schlumberger, excluding charges and credits, was $1.44 billion, which was flat sequentially, and represents a 3% decrease year on year. Diluted earnings-per-share from continuing operations, excluding charges and credits, was $1.08, the same as in the previous quarter, and $1.10 in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Schlumberger recorded charges of $0.06 per share in the fourth quarter of 2012 versus $0.02 per share in the previous quarter, and $0.06 per share in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Oilfield Services revenue of $11.17 billion increased 5% sequentially and 8% year on year. Oilfield Services pretax operating income of $2.2 billion increased 1% sequentially and was flat year on year.

Read the entire Schlumberger earnings report


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Monday Price Analysis.... Metals, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar, Bonds and the SP 500

The U.S. stock market is closed today for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. So we do not expect much price action to take place on the Canadian or futures market today. But we'll still be watching the markets, let's be ready to trade Tuesday morning!

Pre-Market Analysis Points

*  Dollar index is giving mixed signals this week. Short term chart looks bullish for another couple of days but overall it is trading within a large bear flag and near resistance.

*  Crude oil is trading lower by -0.50% but remains in a strong uptrend and bull flag. $97-$98 looks like the next upward thrust target.

*  Natural gas is trading higher 0.87% touching our upside target of $3.60 this morning. It could keep climbing to $3.70 which is the next target but it looks as though its ready for a pause.

*  Gold and Silver are trading flat. Last week they held up at resistance but have yet to breakout. They could do it this week but until we the trend shifts with volume to support the move and miners to also show strength I will remain on the sideline.

*  Bonds are trading flat and giving off mixed signals much. The 60 minute chart is bullish with a bull flag, while the daily chart is bearish.

*  SP500 index remains in a bull market grinding its way higher each week without a decent pausepullback to get long. Technically we could see a 3-4% pullback any day and the market would remain in an uptrend.


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