Learn from the Master...."Live Options Strategy Webinar"

This Thursday, John Carter from "Trade The Markets" is conducting a free "Live Options Strategy Webinar"

John's agreed to teach YOU the strategies he plans on using in 2013...no matter what size your account or level of activity.

Here are the details:

Date: Thursday, January 17th Time: 8:00pm Eastern Time (New York Time)

Click Here To Register

In this webinar John will show you ...

... His 3 favorite options trading strategies,
... How to find high probability trades,
... How to manage options trades,
... His trading rules for doubling his $500,000 account ......and more.


So mark your calendar for Thursday night, January 17th at 8:00pm Eastern Time (New York Time).

Click Here To Register Now

The Technical Traders Morning Charts

Yesterday’s trading session played out exactly as posted in the morning chart update. Today will be a different story from the looks of it as the dollar index looks to be putting in a bottom and that has the SP500 down 0.40% this morning. It may trigger our first entry point to let long stocks today.

Crude oil has been trading sideways/higher the past week but the on balance volume clearly shows sellers are unloading contracts at the $94 level. Yesterday we talked about how crude oil was walking a fine line up its support trend line and once that breaks look out! Price is holding up but be aware it could drop fast and hard any day here....Check out all of this mornings charts for the U.S. Dollar, crude oil, natural gas, SP 500 futures, gold, silver and bonds.

The Technical Traders Morning Charts


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Trends & Trading Signals: Gold, Miners, Crude Oil and the SP500

Gold and gold miner stocks have underperformed in 2012 disappointing most traders. That being said it has traded in a large sideways range since September 2011 and remains stuck in this range as of this week. Investments trading sideways are not my preferred investment of choice because some commodities and stocks for that matter can trade sideways for years before making another bull market rally.

That being said in the last six months gold has started to show life that a new bull market may be starting. 2013 is starting to look as though gold, silver and precious metals miners could lead the market higher if they can break out of their basing patterns. Until we get more bullish price action I am not planning to get long.

Let's take a look at the gold ETF and Gold Miner charts


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Icahn Seeking Approval to Acquire Voting Securities in Transocean RIG

Pursuant to Article 20 of the Swiss Federal Act on Stock Exchanges and Securities Trading, which requires the disclosure of securities positions at various thresholds in excess of 3% of the voting rights of a listed company, Transocean has reported with the SIX Swiss Exchange that it has been notified by Carl Icahn that Mr. Icahn [together with certain of his affiliates] holds shares of Transocean in an amount totaling 1.56% of the issued shares and has a synthetic long position in shares of Transocean (including options to acquire shares) representing 1.70% of the issued shares.

Additionally, pursuant to the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, Mr. Icahn has notified Transocean that Icahn is seeking approval to potentially acquire voting securities of Transocean in an amount exceeding the $682.1 million Hart-Scott-Rodino threshold, but less than that Act's threshold of 25% of the outstanding voting securities, depending upon various factors.

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Halliburton Uses Clean Burning Natural Gas to Power a Fracturing Fleet

Are we finding more uses for natural gas in this country. It seems to be taking forever but if you look hard enough it's happening. COT Fund favorite for 2013, Halliburton, is promoting the use of nat gas even if they have to use it themselves....

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Apache Corporation and Caterpillar have developed innovative dual fuel technology capable of safely and efficiently powering the pumping equipment used for fracturing treatments with a mixture of natural gas and diesel. With 12 pumps (24,000 horsepower), this is one of the largest scale dual fuel projects ever conducted in the oil and gas industry.

G. Steven Farris, Chairman and CEO of Apache and the Chairman of America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA), encouraged Apache and the industry to increase the use of natural gas as a fuel for engines. In response, Halliburton developed a technical solution for converting the pumping equipment used at a typical large scale fracturing spread to a dual fuel system including natural gas. One that would be more efficient and cleaner burning than using diesel alone.

Halliburton and its supplier, Caterpillar, teamed up to convert the company’s new Q-10 pumps to dual fuel with a technology that would safely and efficiently accommodate high quality liquefied or compressed natural gas. Collaborating closely with Halliburton and Apache to cover a wide range of performance, environmental and efficiency criteria, Caterpillar adapted its proprietary Dynamic Gas Blending (DGB) engine technology to power Halliburton’s massive pumps.

“We anticipate that in the not so distant future, these DGB engines can be easily retrofitted to efficiently burn available on site conditioned field gas, thereby saving operators additional fuel transport costs,” said Marc Edwards, Senior Vice President of Halliburton’s Completion and Production Division.

Read the entire article at Halliburton.com
 

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Weekly Technical Outlook for January 12th

It's that time of the week when we check in with the great staff at Oil N'Gold.com. Can crude oil stay in a bullish pattern? Let's see how ONG will be trading crude oil, natural gas and gold this week.....

Crude oil rose further to as as high as 94.70 last week and and breached 61.8% retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 94.17 before retreating mildly. Near term outlook stays bullish as long as 91.52 minor support holds. Sustained trading above 94.17 will pave the way for a retest on 100.42 key resistance level. However, note bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Break of 91.52 will argue that a short term top is formed and bring pull back to 90 psychological level and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.83 are viewed as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this view. Fall from 100.42 is likely the fifth and the last leg of such consolidation. Having said that, downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. Break of 100.42 resistance will strongly suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for above 114.83.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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Natural gas attempted to resume recent fall last week but was contained above 3.05 support and recovered again. Initial bias remains neutral this week as consolidation from 3.05 might extend further. But overall outlook remains unchanged. Considering that it's limited by medium term falling trend line, whole rally from 1.902 might be finished at 3.93 already. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 3.507 resistance holds. Current decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.902 to 3.933 at 2.678 on break of 3.05.

In the bigger picture, the bounce off from the long term falling channel resistance for 6.108 retained the case that such decline isn't finished. Break of 2.575 support should make a new low below 1.902 to extend the whole long term down trend. Nonetheless, strong rebound from 2.575, followed by break of 3.933 resistance, will revive that case of long term reversal and target a test on 4.983 key resistance.

Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Gold's recovery from 1626 extended further last week as consolidation continued. But with 1695.4 resistance holds, deeper fall is still expected. Below 1626 will extend the whole decline from 1798.1 to 1478.3/1577.4 support zone. On the upside, though, break of 1695.4 will indicate reversal and bring stronger rebound back to 1755.0 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

Check out John Carters new free video series "Options Trading Strategies"

Trading Strategies are the Key to Success

Often the key to consistent and successful trading is in the details and the strategy behind the trade. After 20 years of learning this the hard way....trust me here.

In this video John Carter lays out some of his exact trades, and detailed trade strategies on some of his favorite trades.

Watch the video and watch him make some big trades, and he'll show you how YOU can do the same.

Normally these videos are for members only, but as a reader at The Crude Oil Trader John has agreed to make this video available to you, no strings attached.

Just click here to enjoy the video!

Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader

EIA: Average 2012 Crude Oil Prices Remain Near 2011 Levels

Average crude oil prices in 2012 were at historically high levels for the second year in a row. Brent crude oil averaged $111.67 per barrel, slightly above the 2011 average of $111.26. West Texas Intermediate oil averaged $94.05 per barrel in 2012, down slightly from $94.88 in 2011.

The differential between Brent and WTI spot prices historically was just a few dollars per barrel in either direction. In 2011, the Brent premium over WTI averaged $16.38 per barrel; however, in 2012 this premium widened to $17.61 per barrel.

The significant events in 2012 include:

* U.S. crude oil production rose by an estimated 780,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, the largest yearly increase to date.

* The surge in crude oil production led to crude oil stocks held in land-locked Cushing, Oklahoma, which is a major pricing point for crude oil, that resulted in record-high end of month stock levels from April through December.

* The United States remained a significant net oil importer when levels of crude oil and petroleum products are added together.

* After Brent fell below $90/bbl in late June and WTI dropped below $80/bbl, prices rebounded in July on expectations that policymakers in the United States, Europe, and China would take action to stimulate economic growth, which could increase oil demand. * Disruptions in oil production in South Sudan, Yemen, Syria, and the North Sea reduced available global supplies, putting upward pressure on oil prices.


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Taking Advantage of Recent Lows in the Volatility Index

With the VIX sinking there is nobody better to guide us through a trade on the VIX then todays contributor, COT staffer J.W. Jones.....

One of the newest option products to appear in our universe as an options trader is the option series designed to trade the volatility index (VIX). The VIX is a measurement of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index.

To review quickly, the implied volatility of an options series is reflective of the aggregate market opinion of the future volatility of a given underlying asset. In terms of the Volatility Index, the price is the current market opinion of the future volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next 12 months.

As are all attempts to predict the future, this value does not always reflect accurately the actual volatility as it plays out prospectively, but at a practical level it is the best we can do. As sage philosophers have long noted, “the future isn’t what it used to be.”

The importance for traders is the well established and generally known inverse correlation between prices for the given underlying and the measure of implied volatility, in this case our VIX value. What is typically less known is the fact that levels of implied volatility correlate even more closely to the velocity of the price move of the underlying asset in question.......Read J.W.'s entire article and check out the charts



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Baker Hughes Announces December 2012 Rig Counts

Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE:BHI) announced today that the international rig count for December 2012 was 1,253, down 14 from the 1,267 counted in November 2012, and up 73 from the 1,180 counted in December 2011. The international offshore rig count for December 2012 was 299, down 1 from the 300 counted in November 2012 and unchanged from the 299 counted in December 2011.

The average U.S. rig count for December 2012 was 1,784, down 25 from the 1,809 counted in November 2012 and down 219 from the 2,003 counted in December 2011. The average Canadian rig count for December 2012 was 353, down 31 from the 384 counted in November 2012 and down 76 from the 429 counted in December 2011.

The worldwide rig count for December 2012 was 3,390, down 70 from the 3,460 counted in November 2012 and down 222 from the 3,612 counted in December 2011.

Here is the Baker Hughes official release and charts


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EIA Video: Cumulative Natural Gas Wells Drilled in Pennsylvania

Between 2009 and 2011, Pennsylvania's natural gas production more than quadrupled due to expanded horizontal drilling combined with hydraulic fracturing. This drilling activity, which is concentrated in shale formations that cover a broad swath of the state, mirrors trends seen in the Barnett shale formation in Texas.

The animation illustrates Pennsylvania's relatively recent transition from conventional vertical wells (black diamonds) to horizontal wells (red diamonds), drilled mostly in sections of the Marcellus, Utica, and Geneseo/Burket shale formations located in the northeast and southwest portions of the state. The animation also shows that as horizontal drilling increased, the number of vertical wells [which are typically less productive] fell, resulting in an overall decline in the state's new well count.


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A Technical Update on the Mini Crash in GOLD

If you follow one trader for gold trades make it COT staffer David Banister. Today David shows us what he sees "in the waves"......

Let’s make one thing clear; nobody I know including myself predicted that Gold would drop from 1690 to 1625 inside of 48 hours this week. That was not in the charts and so I won’t even pretend I was going to see that train coming through the tunnel.

With that said, let’s try to let the dust settle but take a look objectively at some possibilities.

1. We all know that some FOMC minutes released did in fact cause some major downside in GOLD based on potential for eventual end to QE in the US down the road. It did cause stops to trigger, probably some margin calls, and then more stops creating a mini crash of near 4% on the Metal.

2. The ABC pattern appeared to be completed at 1634 last week, especially when we rallied over 1681 pivot. A brief dip to 1625 spot took place this morning early, and we now trade again around the 1631 pivot.

What are the technical options?

Well if we stick with traditional Elliott Wave Theory, we can see a potential 3-3-5 pattern still unfolding and wave 5 of C is now in play. 3-3-5 patterns have 3 waves down, 3 up, then 5 down to complete the entire ABC Structure.

To confirm this, we will want to see GOLD bottom here fairly soon in wave 5 of C.

Below is the updated chart of GLD ETF showing you this pattern. It’s the best I can do right now. I will keep you updated as things unfold. To be sure, I count this as cycle year 13 in the Gold bull market and I had Gold peaking in June of 2013 at 2280-2400 ranges per ounce, but we will have to see now if that is still valid or not based on whether this C wave can hold and reverse hard soon.



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Why the 1470-1474 area on the SP 500 is extremely important for Bulls

The SP 500 has been in a potential 5 wave rally going all the way back to October 2011 lows of 1074. This type of 5 wave rally is common in a Bull Market, but must be watched closely as it could also signal another large correction just around the corner from current 1464 levels on the SP 500 Index. Once you complete a 5 wave bullish pattern, there is commonly a 3 wave corrective decline, therefore determining where those key pivot points are is crucial for market watchers.

If we take a look at the length of the 5 waves in the Rising Wedge pattern from the October 2011 lows of 1074 below, and compare them with other waves 2-5, we can see several fibonacci fractal relationships amongst all of them. This is one of the clues I look for when trying to analyze pivot points and knowing at least what I should be watching for further clues.

In most cases, wave 3 is commonly the largest of a 5 wave structure, but that does not preclude wave 1 from being the largest in the series. To wit, recall the nasty decline into October 2011 that spurred the next big market advance of about 350 points off the bottom. When you have a significant decline preceeding the early stages of a 5 wave advance, often the first wave in the pattern is in fact the largest, which may be the case here.

Let’s take a look at a possible 5 wave count just so we know what to be aware of :

Wave 1: That 350 point advance was a possible wave 1 off the 1074 lows of Oct 2011.

Wave 2: managed to retrace 155 points of that advance into June 2012, a common wave 2.

Wave 3: rallied to the 1474 pivot, which was a 207 point rally. 207 points is about 61% fibonacci relationship to wave 1′s 350 point advance, again another clue.

Wave 4: dropped as we know from 1474-1344, or 130 points. 130 points is also about 61% of Wave 3′s prior advance on the downside.

Wave 5: Theoretically this wave 5 is now from 1343, and if we took 61% of wave 3 advance and add it to 1343, we come up with about 1470.

1470 would then be a double top in the market, stop wave 5 in its tracks… and be followed by a large correction.

So with the above in mind, we advise watching 1470-74 with keen interest as the market will want to take this area out with authority to continue the intermediate bull run. If not, we could be in for some downside trouble…

Don't miss a single Elliot Wave Trading article from David Banister, consider joining us for free weekly reports. Just visit Market Trend Forecast or better yet sign up for a 33% discount on a one year subscription to Davids complete service today.



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The Fiscal Pop-N-Drop for Equities – Look Out

Today’s gap higher in stocks has many investors feeling really good about but will this rally last?

My to the point answer is “Yes” but there will be some bumps and navigating positions along the way.

Looking at the charts below you will notice how stocks are trading up over 4% in two trading sessions and several indicators and technical resistance levels are now being tested. Naturally when several resistance levels across multiple time frames, cycles and indicators we must be open to the idea that stocks could pause or pullback for a few days before continuing higher.

Here is a quick snapshot of charts we follow closely to help determine short term overbought and oversold market conditions.....Click here to check out the charts for "The Fiscal Pop-N-Drop for Equities – Look Out"


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Copper ETFs and Copper Stocks About To Move Big

With 2012 now behind us it’s time to start looking for some new long term investments which have big potential gains in the new year. Copper is one metal that has caught my eye.

The long term monthly chart of the copper ETF JJC shows a potential cup and handle pattern accompanied with bullish volume characteristics. Last year copper traded sideways in a narrowing range. This type of price action tends to bore traders and investors forcing them to look elsewhere for new to trades. The saying is “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wait you out”

You can see on the monthly chart that the interest in this commodity diminished. You can tell because of the sideways movement and declining volume. I like to focus on investments which are out of favor but are showing signs of another big trend starting. getting on the train before it leaves the station can make for a fun ride.

Just click here to take a look at the charts, analysis and our best copper stock setup


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2013 Forecast – Tis The Season To Drink & Own Coffee

It's always time for coffee, but today staffer Chris Vermeulen shares his coffee trade with us.....


Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010 which can be seen through the coffee exchange traded fund symbol: JO. This investment seeks to replicate the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.



Weekly, Hourly and Seasonal chart of JO Coffee Exchange Traded Fund

The top weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013 while the lower hourly chart shows strong on balance volume meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee. The small white chart is the seasonal chart of coffee futures showing prices historically rise from January–March, then a correction followed by another rally in to May.

Coffee prices are still in a down trend but it looks as though the end is near and if played properly it could provide up to 100% return on your capital in 2013.



Coffee Futures Monthly Long Term Chart

This chart gives you a bird’s eye view on where coffee prices are trading in the big picture scheme of things.



JO Coffee ETF VS. SBUX Starbucks Share Price:

Lower coffee bean prices has helped lift share prices of coffee companies like Starbucks: SBUX, Coffee Holdings Co.: JVA, Coffee Roasters Inc.: GMCR, and PEET’s Coffee: PEET. But cheap coffee may not be around that much longer and the lower earnings for coffee brewers may be closer than most may think.



2013 Caffeine Conclusion:

In short, I have been watching coffee prices for a bottoming pattern for months and I now feel it is getting really close to a bottom and it could be a great trade and investment in the new year. As for companies like Starbucks it will likely not have much of an affect on the bottom line until the second half of the year though it is something to keep an eye on during earning seasons.

If you want my trading and investing ideas each week along with trade alerts for ideas like this then join my newsletter today at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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The New Era of Oil Renaissance....Where Nuclear Failed and Crude Oil Succeeded

 From our friends at EconMatters......

In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that matter. This phrase was first proposed regarding the potential Nuclear turnaround here in the US, where companies like NRG Energy, Toshiba and many more players all along the supply chain were positioning themselves for the Nuclear Renaissance of cheap, and abundant Nuclear energy for the next 50 years.

Well, the natural disaster in Japan changed that movement in the span of a week of just untenable radioactivity readings coming out of Japan. An already uphill battle for changing public sentiment towards the dangers of nuclear energy became an impractical fight from an investment standpoint that relied upon large DOE loan guarantees to attract private investment.

It is ironic, but all these companies spent a lot of time and effort from lobbying to developing strategic partnerships with each other, and in the end, most of that 7 year effort had to be written off by firms. It really shows how firms have to get the industry right; Oil was so much the smarter play. Higher margins, better technology, much easier safety hurdles, and even the environmental fight is much more manageable.

Not to mention the number of jobs created is far more with an Oil Renaissance as opposed to a Nuclear Renaissance, even with a complete buildup of the entire nuclear supply chain. Nuclear projects are just not scalable like oil projects are from a numbers standpoint due to the regulation, lead times for components, inspection, build times, and many more constraints.

No DOE Loan Guarantees: The Free Market at Work

We are going to have a Renaissance in this country, it just happened under everyone`s nose. The free market of high oil prices for the last 10 years made it happen all on its own without government subsidies, and part of the reason that things are going to get real tough for the alternative energy folks over the next 5 years as those government subsidies wind down. They will not make sense from an economic standpoint once oil prices come down considerably, and from a budgetary perspective we can no longer afford this propping up industries that cannot sustain themselves on their own merit in the free market. A 16 trillion dollar debt and climbing means the environmentalists will now be facing an uphill fight on Capitol Hill to have their cause funded by the American taxpayer.

Click here to read the entire EconMatters article "The New Era of Oil Renaissance, Where Nuclear Failed, Crude Oil Succeeded"


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SeaDrill [SDRL] Financial Calendar for 2013

Don't put that calendar away....Seadrill Limited [SDRL] plans to release its financial statements on the following dates in 2013:

February 28, 2013 - Preliminary fourth quarter and financial year 2012 results

May 31, 2013 - First quarter 2013 results

August 30, 2013 - Second quarter 2013 results

November 29, 2013 - Third quarter 2013 results

Please be advised that the dates are subject to change.

This information is subject of the disclosure requirements pursuant to section 5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

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Now Available....CME Groups 2013 Product Expiration Calendar

OK fellow commodity traders, it's time to start getting ready for 2013. Make sure you bookmark this page, there is no excuse to ever miss a single energy product expiration day.


Just click here to get the CME Groups 2013 Product Expiration Calendar





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Musings: E&P Spending Survey Gives Cheer Not Lumps Of Coal

The annual exploration and production spending outlook survey conducted by Barclays oilfield service stock research team was unveiled a couple of weeks ago.

According to the analysts, global oil and gas companies plan on boosting their E&P spending by 7 percent to a record $644 billion in 2013. That's the good news. The bad news is that almost all the growth in spending will be outside of North America, where the spending outlook is projected to be flat with 2012.

The analytical team at Barclays has been conducting these spending surveys for many years, and the results are anxiously awaited by the industry to see the thinking of managements about future oil and gas prices, commodity demand and where and how much the oil and gas companies figure they can, and should, spend to find, develop and produce hydrocarbons.

The capital spending increase for 2013 would mark the fourth consecutive year of growth, although the amount of the annual increases has varied noticeably. The Barclays' analysts believe, as well as energy company managements, the industry is in the early stage of an extended demand cycle, which will be driven by growth in developing economies.......Read the entire Musings article.


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