Thursday, May 13, 2010

Commodities Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral as it's still bounded in range above 74.51. Consolidations from there might continue but after all, we'd expect upside to be limited by double top neck line (80.53) and 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.55) and bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 74.51 will target 69.50 key support next.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook
Natural gas's consolidation from 3.81 continues with rise from 3.855 as the third leg. Such rise could still continue with 4.109 minor support intact. However, we'd expect upside to be be limited by 4.386 resistance conclude the consolidation and finally bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 4.109 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 3.81 low will target 3.0 psychological level next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next after sustaining below 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. Sustained trading above 4.386 resistance is needed to be the first sign that the trend in natural gas has reversed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Further rise in gold is still expected with 1216.2 minor support intact. Current rally should target 1300 psychological level next. On the downside, below 1216.2 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1170.7 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, the break of 1227.5 indicates that correction from there is already completed at 1044.5 already. Longer term rally from 931.3 should have resumed. Next target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340. Also, such rally is viewed as part of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. We're looking at the prospect of extending the up trend towards 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.

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