Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral and some more consolidations might be seen and rise to 38.2% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 72.99 cannot be ruled out. However, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 64.24 will target 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18
In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
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