Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, last May's low crossing at 59.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98. First support is today's low crossing at 64.24. Second support is last May's low crossing at 59.43.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.173. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.855 is the next downside target. If June renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.494. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678. First support is today's low crossing at 4.040. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16.

Gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1175.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.


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