Oil N Gold......
Crude oil's rally continued last week as expected and reached as high as 109.95 so far. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and current rise should target a test on 114.83 key resistance next. On the downside, below 107.95 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, the medium term up trend from 33.2 shouldn't be completed yet. Rise from 74.95 is indeed tentatively treated as resumption of such rally. Sustained break of 114.83 will target 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 114.83 from 74.95 at 125.40. On the downside, though, break of 95.44 support will indicate that correction pattern from 114.83 is going to extend further with another falling leg to 74.95 and below before completion.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
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