Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Third Day Lower for Crude Oil is a Charm.....or NOT!

September crude oil closed lower for the third day in a row on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above July's high crossing at 108.93 would renew this summer's rally while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 110.55 later this summer. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 110.55. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 102.67. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 100.27.

The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of their recent gains. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the index trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.15 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1705.00. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1683.15. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1670.50.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and below last Friday's low crossing at 1282.50 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If October renews the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is today's low crossing at 1278.40. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.178 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.578 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.463. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.578. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.309. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.178.

COT favorite coffee appears to be stuck in a new trading range. September coffee closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 122.15 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.


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