Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Crude Oil Lower on Overnight Profit Taking


Crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If October extends last week's rally, June's high crossing at 75.27 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 67.42 would confirm that a top has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 74.13. The weekly pivot point is 71.85.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 74.81
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 75.27

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.29
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 71.96

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The U.S. Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 77.52 is the next downside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 77.52 would renew this summer's decline.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.66
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.69

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 77.81
Second support is this month's low crossing at 77.52

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Natural gas was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.432 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 2.640 is the next downside target.

Natural gas daily pivot point for Tuesday is 2.88, the weekly is 2.95

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.10
Second resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 3.37

First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.73
Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.64

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