Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight but has rallied this morning as markets look to better than expected U.S. July employment data as a clue that the United States could be emerging from recession. Oil extends this week's narrow trading range as stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.47
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.35
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81
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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.760 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.
Nat gas pivot point for Friday is 3.85
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second support is the overnight low crossing at 3.71
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The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally and remains below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If September extends the decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.77 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.52
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally at 75.73
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