Low Range Close in Crude Oil Gives The Bears Technical Advantage For Tuesday

Crude oil [April contract] posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 104.95. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.75.

Natural gas [April contract] closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. If April renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.942 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.942. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.210. First support is January's low crossing at 2.438. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

Gold [April contract] closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1706.40 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1789.50. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1825.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1706.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.

What To Expect in the Final Week Of February for Precious Metals, Gold Stocks & Dollar

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Markets Summary For Wednesday October 26th

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 95.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.99 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 95.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.40.

Natural gas was lower Wednesday while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 4.039 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.133. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.336. First support is this month's low crossing at 3.747. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1775.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1604.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1729.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1775.20. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1604.70. Second support is September's low crossing at 1535.00.


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Crude Oil Market Continues to Tease Us With It's Sideways Action

The crude oil market continues to tease us with its sideways action. While this market has been trending to the upside, we want to pay particular attention to the uptrend line from August 9th through today. We do not think that the crude oil market is ready to go higher based on our long term monthly Trade Triangle, which continues to be negative for this market.

The $90 a barrel resistance continues, as the market has had a difficult time moving over that area and maintaining a positive close above that zone. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and remains poised to extend the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

Closes above the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.64 would confirm an end to this summer's decline. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm an end to the corrective rally off August's low.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.47.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

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Crude Oil Starts The Week Down as European Debt Crisis Looms Large

Crude oil starts the week on a sour note falling for a third day, the longest decline in a month, as most traders feel that Europe will not shake off their debt crisis and economic growth will continue to be under pressure. Combine that with the return of normal production in the Gulf of Mexico as hurricane season appears to be winding down.

Crude oil was lower in Sunday evenings overnight trading as it extends the decline off last Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are still overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.20 would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.15 later this fall. If October renews the rebound off August's low, the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.85 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 90.48. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.85. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.95. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning trading is 87.46.

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Week Ending Market Commentary

Crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 94.70. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 89.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off this month's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.430. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.186. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119.

Gold closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday as it extended yesterday's breakout below this year's uptrend line crossing near 1529.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Today's close below the reaction low crossing at 1511.40 confirms a top has been posted and trend change has taken place. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1529.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60. First support is today's low crossing at 1498.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1477.10.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Oct. 18th

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.08
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.78

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.10


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Crude Oil Bulls Face Overbought Conditions, Here's Mondays Numbers

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 83.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.82
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January February decline crossing at 83.53

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.33
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.72

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Natural gas was lower overnight and posted a new contract low as it extends this winter's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.046 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.772
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.046

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.550
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.92 would open the door for a larger degree decline during March.

If June renews this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97 is the next upside target.

First resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 81.97

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.14
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.92

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Crude Oil Bulls Maintain a Near Term Advantage, Here's Friday's Numbers

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May resumes the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 80.33

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 81.60
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-February decline crossing at 81.63

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.10
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.17

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Natural gas was steady to lower overnight and posted a new contract low. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.090 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 4.639

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.811
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.090

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.612
Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.157

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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 79.61 would open the door for a larger degree decline during March. If March renews this winter's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.43
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 82.92

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.84
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.61


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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends last week's decline, last September's low crossing at 67.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.54

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.90
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 69.50
Second support is last September's low crossing at 67.46

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's close above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.484. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term.

If March extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.804 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.278 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 5.499

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.680
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.804

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.484
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.378

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.63 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 80.82
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.55
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.63

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Crude Oil Rallies on Better Then Expected Employment Numbers

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight but has rallied this morning as markets look to better than expected U.S. July employment data as a clue that the United States could be emerging from recession. Oil extends this week's narrow trading range as stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 71.47

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 72.42
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.35
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 66.81

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.760 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.045 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree rebound during the first half of August.

Nat gas pivot point for Friday is 3.85

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.72

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.76
Second support is the overnight low crossing at 3.71

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The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally and remains below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at 78.83. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends the decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above last Wednesday's high crossing at 79.77 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.49
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.94

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.52
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally at 75.73