Applying Trend Momentum and Panic Buying & Selling Indicators to the S&P 500 $SPY

Quite often we are asked about two of the indicators we use in my pre-market report videos. One is proprietary, and one is not. The proprietary trend momentum indicator runs on the 30 minute chart of regular trading hours only. For those of you who don’t know, that’ll be the green, red, and orange bar chart on the left side of the video screen. 

This indicator helps to filter out the noise of futures or after hours trading and allows me to more accurately gauge the direction the market may go next. For example, if an overbought zone (shaded red bars) appears, it can be a hint that the market is about to change directions....Continue Reading Here.

Tuesday's Trading Gives Crude Oil Bulls Some Hope

Tuesday gives oil bulls some hope, but is this the short of a lifetime in crude oil?

September crude oil closed higher [107.38] on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75.

Get our FREE Trading Webinars Today!

Crude Oil, Gold and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Thursday January 26th

March crude oil closed higher on Thursday due to light short covering. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible near term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 103.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 97.40. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

How To Trade Market Sentiment

April gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1636.60 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1734.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1670.50. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1636.60.

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

March natural gas closed lower on Thursday ending a three day short covering rally off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.807 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi-year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.807. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

Get Our Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks

Phil Flynn: To Embargo or not to Embargo, That is Indeed the Question

While the market got a boost on reports that European refiners were meeting with Saudi Arabia and other oil producers and securing an alternative to Iranian oil supply, apparently some in the EU did not like the answers that they heard. An overbought oil market seemingly got a reason to sell-off on a Bloomberg report that the European Union embargo on imports of Iranian oil will likely be delayed for six months to allow countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain to find alternative supply, quoting an EU official with knowledge of the talks and it hit the market at just the right time.

The truth is, as I have said before, the EU would like to put off an embargo until after winter and Italy still wants some of the money that the Iranians owe them. Still do not think that Iran will be able to sell their oil very easily. The bottom line is that all Iranian oil will be sold, but it will be sold at a discount. Is it any wonder that Iran is rattling that saber to keep prices high. They are hopping if they can keep prices artificially high they won't miss the loss of revenue! Which means it will be a saber rattling kind of weekend! With a three day holiday in the US, being short over the weekend might be a dangerous propostion.
Yet Bloomberg News is reporting that.....Read the entire article.

Candlestick Formations You Need To Learn

Crude Oil Closed Higher on Tuesday Ending a Three Day Correction

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday ending a three day correction off last week's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.13 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 103.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 100.23. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.17.


Could Crude Oil Prices Intensify a Pending SP 500 Sell Off?

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Bulls All Take a Slide

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.59. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 92.96.

Natural gas gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.686. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.758. First support is today's low crossing at 3.449. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

Crude Oil Pressured By Euro Weakness and Greek Bailout Doubts

Crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading as the euro has stalled in it's advance against the dollar on worries that an agreement to bail out Greece may be held up by a number of countries. Stochastics and RSI ifor WTI oil remain overbought. If November extends the rebound off August's low, the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.13 is the next upside target.

Closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.61 later this fall.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.47. Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 89.19.

Lower Inventory Forecast Boost Oil Prices Before Tuesdays Open

According to Bloomberg news this morning a survey of analyst [according to the median of 10 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey] shows the U.S. Energy Department may say U.S. crude supplies dropped by 3 million barrels last week in a report due out tomorrow. Giving crude oil bulls a boost before Tuesdays open in the U.S.

But that boost is only enough to bump traders into the "new normal" resistance in the 90+ area with Stochastics and RSI remaining overbought and diverging. Turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still likely near term.

Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.20 would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.15 later this fall. If October renews the rebound off August's low, the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 90.48. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.66. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 82.95. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 87.39.


Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Holiday Squeeze on the Dollar, Gold & Stocks

The past week and a half has been as choppy as it gets for the stocks market. Thankfully the herd mentality (fear & greed) stays the same. Understanding what others think and feel when involved in the market is one of the keys to making money consistently from the market. The crazy looking chart below I will admit is a little tough on the eyes, and I should have used red and green for holiday colors but green just was not going to work today so bear with me.

Market Internal Indicators – 10 minute, 7 day chart
This is a simple chart to read if you understand how to trade these market internal indicators (NYSE volume ratio, NYSE Advance/Decline line, and Total Put/Call ratio).

It shows and explains how I get a read on the overbought/sold conditions in the market. There are several other criteria needed to pull this trade off but it is these charts which tell me to start getting ready to take partial profits, buy or take short positions.

The top section shows the NYSE volume ratio line. When the green line spikes is means there are more sellers than buyers by a large amount and I call this fear. On the other hand when he red line spikes it shows everyone is chasing the price higher because they can’t stand the thought of missing another rally. I call this greed or panic buying. You buy into fear, sell/short into greed.

Important point to note though… We are getting another sell/short signal here (Wednesday) but knowing Friday will be light volume and knowing that light volume means higher prices, I think we should get a better opportunity to short this new down trend next week at possibly a higher level. The market may have a short squeeze in the next 2-3 days. Just so you know, a short squeeze is when the market breaks to the upside on light volume forcing the short positions to cover. This creates a pop in price, only for it to drop quickly after. But, if we get a pop with solid volume behind it, then we could just see the up trend start again and we would then look to play the long side. Only time will tell…

Rising Dollar & Gold – I Don’t Get It?
That is the question everyone seems to be asking this week. I think what we are seeing is straight forward. Traders/investors are selling Euros because of the issues overseas and are buying the dollar along with gold and silver.

Generally when the dollar raises gold drops, but they are both moving up in sync, and really I don’t see the problem with this as it has happened many times in the past. Currently I am neutral on gold and silver because of this situation though. I feel something is about to happen in a week or so that will change things in a big way.

Mid-Week Gold, Dollar & Stock Trading Conclusion:
In short, the equities market is now in a down trend and overbought here. It’s prime for a short position but with the holiday, light volume Friday, and most likely a follow through buying session on Monday I think its best to sit in cash without the stress of wondering what will happen on Monday. Just enjoy the holiday.

Recently members had a great short play locking in 2.2% gain on one of our positions this week as we shorted the market using the SDS inverse SP500 ETF. We also continue to hold two other positions with a 22 and 24% gain thus far and I think going into year end things are really going to heat up.

To receive Chris Vermeulen's Real Time ETF Trading Alerts visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com




Share

Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Oct. 18th

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.08
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.78

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.10


The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained

Share

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Bulls Maintain Slight Advantage

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.23. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.30.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.908 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.694 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.691. Second support is today's low crossing at 4.691.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.81. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.24. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday confirming Monday's key reversal down. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1231.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1228.30.

New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements

Share

Crude Oil Technical Analysis From Oil N Gold

Crude oil's price powerfully pushed yesterday, after the release of inventory fundamentals touching the key resistance level at almost 70.90, which forms a support level for the main breached ascending channel, previously. However, reaching this level will be accompanied by the stochastic entering an overbought areas ; thus, making us expect for today, a downside move on an intraday basis where its first main targets are around 68.00, requiring trading to remain below level 70.90, essentially. The trading range for today is among the key support at 66.20 and the key resistance at 73.15. The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Hinting That A Short Term Top May Be In

July crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 66.62

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22

10:30 AM ET. May 29 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2213)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)

Futures Prices Click Here

The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.99

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

Create FREE Portfolio Click Here

July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.838. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.

If July extends Wednesday's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.

Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.87

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.073
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.708
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500

Search for YOUR Symbol Click Here

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

It looks like day traders are neutral on the unemployment numbers and looking to play the bull side of the trade. Above the 930 pivot point first sellers should step in 936-939 possibly filling the gap all the way up to 954.75. If we get below the pivot point the target gap fill will be 917.

If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, out line in the sand is 930

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 points. at 935.60 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Crude Oil Closes A Whipsaw Trading Day In The High Range

May crude oil closed slightly higher on Tuesday as it extended this month's rally.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $58.31 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.93 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.20.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at $58.31.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $49.76.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $47.93.