Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Payrolls Unexpectedly Decline

Crude oil fell after U.S. payrolls unexpectedly declined last month, spurring concern that the economy and fuel demand will be slow to recover. Oil slipped as much as 1 percent after the Labor Department reported that the world’s biggest energy-consuming country lost 85,000 jobs in December. Futures climbed to a 14-month high this week as temperatures dropped in the Northern Hemisphere, U.S. crude-oil supplies rose and the dollar weakened, bolstering the appeal of commodities to investors. “These numbers increase skepticism about the recovery,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy with MF Global in New York. “There’s no rational reason for prices to be at these levels. We’ll probably soon see a good-sized setback in prices.”

Crude oil for February delivery fell 50 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $82.16 a barrel at 9:44 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 3.5 percent this week after touching $83.52 on Jan. 6, the highest level since Oct. 14, 2008. Payrolls were forecast to be unchanged, according to the median estimate of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. “Today’s unemployment number underscores that any recovery in payrolls will be slow,” said Rick Mueller, director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “The recent rally was, in part, built on a much rosier outlook for the economy than these numbers paint. This will probably cool things off”.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Lower Overnight, Lower Prices Possible

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight and trading below the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.33 tempering the near term friendly outlook. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 66.37 would renew the decline off June's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25.

If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 69.86

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.33
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38

First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.72
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 66.37

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Crude Oil Falls a Third Day on Forecast U.S. Shed More Jobs

Crude oil fell for a third day before a report forecast to show the U.S. unemployment increased last month, signaling the world’s largest energy user remains mired in recession. U.S. fuel demand in the four weeks ended June 26 fell 5.8 percent from a year earlier, while demand for distillate fuel including heating oil and diesel, fell 9.4 percent, according to a Department of Energy report yesterday. The Labor Department will likely report the U.S. shed an additional 365,000 jobs in June, a Bloomberg survey showed.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Rebounds Overnight

Crude oil traded higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.53. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 73.90 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.36 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 70.72

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 73.38.
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 73.90.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 69.94.
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 68.36.

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Crude Oil Bulls Take Charge On Better Than Expected Unemployment Numbers

July crude oil traded slightly lower Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Crude oil's pivot point for Friday is 68.14

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 69.60
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.95
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this spring's decline but remains below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

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July Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.

If July extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.

The pivot point for natural gas for Friday is 3.75

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.053
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

For day traders the first challenge for the bulls will be the 23% retracement at 954.25. Beyond that level the next target would be the swing highs at 960.25. If the market finds a way to put a bad spin on the 9.4% unemployment numbers our target to the down side is 932 would strong support at 929.75.

If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.38 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

The SP 500's pivot point for Friday is 937

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 920.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 points. at 944.30 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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Crude Oil Hinting That A Short Term Top May Be In

July crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 66.62

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22

10:30 AM ET. May 29 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2213)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)

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The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.99

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55

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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.838. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.

If July extends Wednesday's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.

Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.87

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.073
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.708
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

It looks like day traders are neutral on the unemployment numbers and looking to play the bull side of the trade. Above the 930 pivot point first sellers should step in 936-939 possibly filling the gap all the way up to 954.75. If we get below the pivot point the target gap fill will be 917.

If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, out line in the sand is 930

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40

The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 points. at 935.60 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Higher Prices For Crude Oil Possible Near Term

June crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above March's high crossing at 56.10. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, January's high crossing at 59.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 56.84

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 58.57.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 59.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 53.44.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.17.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.19 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.58.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.19.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 83.55.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 868.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point is 911.5

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 925.75
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 943.25

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 894
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 880

Friday sets up as a possible sideways trading day and we will trade the 906-913 range as a "battle ground" area.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 11.40 points. at 918.40 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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