EIA: Asia is the World's Largest Petroleum Consumer

2010

Asia surpassed North America as the largest petroleum consuming region in 2008. Asian demand surged nearly 15 million barrels per day from 1980 to 2010, an increase of 146%. North America's petroleum consumption increased 16% between 1980 and 2010. Global petroleum consumption increased 36%, nearly 23 million barrels per day, during the period.

Together, the Middle Eastern, Central & South American, and African share of total global oil demand grew from 11% in 1980 to 20% in 2010 (see chart below). European demand for petroleum decreased 5% from 1980 to 2010, while consumption in the Former Soviet Union fell 55% in the same period.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics.

Note: Percents on graph represent that region's share of global petroleum production in that year. Percents do not sum to 100% for each year because the graph does not include Oceania, which only accounted for 1% of global consumption each year. 

World Commodity Markets Find Strength in Delayed Chinese Inflation Response

Looks as though the bears are being held off as early Monday Asia trading indicates commodity traders view the Chinese tightening threats as just that for now. Despite the most recent data on inflation showing it has raised at its fastest pace in two years. Is this our future in crude oil trading as the world hinges on every word coming out of the leaders in Beijing?

Traders confidence in crude oil and gold continued to improve last week as net long positions increased. While net short positions increased in natural gas signaling the possibility that the natural gas bulls are losing their commitment. Looking at our Smart Scan Chart Analysis the natural gas etf UNG is now rated a +55 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend), indicating a short term top appears to be in.

Biggest news this week should be the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. But of course this promises to be a non event as the street looks for the committee to leave policy unchanged. Here is your trading numbers for Monday morning......

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.46 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, May's high crossing at 93.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 90.76. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 93.29. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 87.10. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.46. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 87.96

Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Thursday's high. However, stochastics and the RSI are diverging and have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.326 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.637. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at 4.654. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.395. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.326. Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.413

Gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1377.70. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1377.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1432.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1377.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1352.00. Gold pivot point for Monday morning is 1383.50.


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Korea National Oil to Sell as Much as $1 Billion Debt to Fund Acquisitions

Korea National Oil Corp. plans to sell as much as $1 billion of debt to fund takeovers, Yonhap News Agency reported yesterday, the latest sign Asia’s biggest economies are competing to secure global energy resources. State owned Korea National, engaged in a $2.6 billion hostile takeover battle for Dana Petroleum Plc, plans to raise between $500 million and $1 billion selling bonds, Yonhap said. Calls to the company’s media department yesterday twice went unanswered.

China, second to the U.S. as a global energy consumer, and South Korea, the world’s biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, are being joined by Japan and India in seeking to buy stakes in the resources needed to boost their economies. State and private companies in the four nations have bid for more than $56 billion worth of energy resources worldwide this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China Petrochemical Corp. in April paid $4.65 billion, about 20 percent more than analysts expected, for a 9 percent stake in oil sands producer Syncrude Canada Ltd. Together with Cnooc Ltd., the Chinese oil company may offer at least $7 billion for Brazil oil assets and a stake in OGX Petroleo & Gas Participacoes SA, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Sept. 10.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on U.S. Home Sales Growth, Crude Stockpile Decline

Oil gained for a second day in New York after U.S. home sales rose and an industry funded report showed a decline in the country’s gasoline inventories, bolstering optimism that the economic recovery will accelerate. Oil advanced as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed after pending sales of existing homes rose to the highest level since October.

The American Petroleum Institute said last week’s gasoline supplies fell to the lowest this year. “The flow of data from the U.S. is still on the positive side, suggesting recovery,” said Toby Hassall, commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “If we start to see inventories decline in line with their seasonal pattern then that should offer support to the market.”

Crude oil for July delivery increased as much as $1.03, or 1.4 percent, to $73.89 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $73.77 at 1:36 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 28 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $72.86. The S&P 500 increased 2.6 percent yesterday. That has pushed Asia stocks higher today with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbing the most since February. The index of pending U.S. home sales gained 6 percent after they were projected to rise 5 percent in April, according to the median of 40 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey.

“The economic numbers out of the U.S. have been improving gradually this month,” said Serene Lim, an energy commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “Yesterday’s API data was quite encouraging. We’ll have to see if the Department of Energy numbers match that, especially if the Cushing inventories fall”....Read the entire article.

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Oil Rises to a 15 Month High on Signs Recovery May Be Sustained

Crude oil rose to a 15 month high on speculation fuel demand will increase as energy and economic data indicate the global recovery may be sustained amid freezing temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. Oil advanced a second day after crude imports by China, the second largest energy consumer, climbed in December to reach a record annual total of 203.8 million metric tons, a customs report showed yesterday. U.S. consumers probably took advantage of holiday discounts in December while manufacturers churned out more goods, economists said before reports out this week.

“Asia has obviously performed well throughout this recession,” said Toby Hassall, commodity analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “Beyond the short term, the global economy, and the U.S. in particular, the largest consumer of oil, is in the early stages of a recovery, which suggests that demand is on the mend.” Crude oil for February delivery rose as much as 92 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $83.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the highest since Oct. 14, 2008. It was at $83.46 a barrel at 12:50 p.m. Singapore time.

The contract gained 9 cents to $82.75 a barrel Jan. 8 after the dollar declined on a report showing employment in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in December. Futures have risen in 11 of the past 12 sessions as freezing temperatures in the U.S., Europe and Asia boosted heating fuel demand. More cold weather is forecast for China in the next two days.....Read the entire article.

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Oil Is Little Changed Amid Speculation of Weak Demand Recovery

Crude oil was little changed near a two month low amid speculation that demand will be slow to recover. Oil fell as much as 1.8 percent after reports showed declining industrial output in Europe and the smallest improvement this year in consumer confidence in Japan, the world’s third largest oil consumer. Equities rallied and the dollar weakened from a two month high, supporting prices. “You won’t have a truly healthy crude market and be able to argue for crude going above $80 until you see the developed market, North America, Europe and Asia, turn around,” said Roger Read, an analyst with Natixis Bleichroeder in Houston. He forecast oil would trade in a $60 to $80 range for the next few months.

Crude oil for January delivery rose 5 cents to $69.92 a barrel at 10:36 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has risen 57 percent this year. Earlier, futures touched $68.59, the lowest since Oct. 5. European industrial output fell for the first time in six months in October, led by a slump in consumer goods. Employment declined in the third quarter. The Tankan business confidence index in Japan showed large companies planned deeper spending cuts to protect earnings under threat from the yen, which climbed to a 14 month high against the dollar in November.....Read the entire article.


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Slumps In China Stocks Pressure Commodities

Crude oil's decline accelerates in European morning. Currently trading at 65.9, further weakness to 63 cannot be ruled out as anticipation on demand improvement diminished. Others in the energy complex also plunge with heating oil losing almost -2% to 1.802 while gasoline sliding to 1.921. Stock markets tumbled in Asia. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index slumped almost -6% to settle at 2871. The gauge rallied to as high as 3471 in August and a deep correction has followed since then. Other closely watched indices also plummeted. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock Average slid -3.1% to close at 10269 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged -3.6% to 20137.....Complete Story