Showing posts with label ECB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECB. Show all posts

Monday, June 16, 2014

I Owe My Soul—Why Negative Interest Rates Are Only the First Step

By Jeff Thomas, International Man

In 1946, an American singer, Merle Travis, recorded a song called "Sixteen Tons." The song told the story of a poor coal miner in Kentucky, who lived in a small coal mining town. The town's economy revolved entirely around the mine.

The mining company owned a "company store," which had a monopoly on the sale of provisions. It charged rates that were designed to use up the weekly paycheque of the miner, so that the miner, in effect, was a slave to the mining company. As the song states,

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go
I owe my soul to the company store

Negative Interest Rates

 

Let's put the song aside for the moment and have a look at a concept that has been bandied about by the European Central Bank (ECB) for a while now. Since the collapse of the central banks would doom the world (their claim, not mine), it is essential that the banks be saved no matter what else must be sacrificed. Efforts to "save" the situation have been implemented through quantitative easing (QE) and the setting and continuation of low interest rates.

Unfortunately, in spite of record profits by banks and staggering bonuses handed out to senior bank executives, somehow the QE and low interest rates have not created the prosperity desired. The economy is still in the tank. What to do?

A solution being considered is to create "negative interest rates." Sounds logical, doesn't it? If low interest rates have kept the economy from crashing but haven't fixed it, surely, negative interest rates can only be more positive.

And what are negative interest rates? Well, it simply means that, if you keep your money in a bank, instead of the bank paying you interest, you pay the bank to hold your money.

No central bank has ever done such a thing, so, not surprisingly, it sounds like a bitter pill to swallow. However, the ECB will present it as an "unfortunate necessity."

Electronic Currency

 

Let's once again change subjects for the moment. If the fiat currencies, such as the euro and the dollar, collapse (as I believe is all but inevitable), the EU and US are likely to immediately come up with an alternate currency (or currencies), since if an alternative is not made readily available, people will turn to whatever currency is handy in order to be able to continue to purchase goods and to trade.

We are in the electronic age. We are also seeing the EU and U.S. heading in a direction that is marked with increasing controls on the capital held by their citizens. Therefore, the ideal currency would be an electronic one. No more paper notes in the wallet, no more coins in the pocket; just a plastic debit card to take care of all purchases.

All purchases. Whether the purchaser buys something as major as a car or as insignificant as a Cadbury bar, the card would be used for every monetary transaction.

This, of course, is a handy solution to the fuss of dealing with what was formerly regarded as money. But there is an extra advantage—quite a major one, in fact—to the government. It now has a record of every single transaction that you make. There could be no "under the table" transactions, as only the debit card would represent currency.

Of course, a bank would be needed to handle the transactions. The bank would receive your electronic paycheck directly from your employer, and you would spend what you had in your account. The bank would be the central clearing house though which all your financial transactions took place.

An extra advantage to the government would be that they would no longer need to chase their citizens for taxation. Since they had a full record of every penny you earned and spent, they could advise you of the amount of your tax obligation and simply deduct it periodically. If you presently pay tax annually, the deductions could be broken up—say, monthly, or even weekly.

And the tax need not be under one heading. Just as your bank now lists a host of confusing charges on your credit card, so the government may have a wide variety of confusing and even redundant taxes that it deducts on a regular basis. Just as with the bank, the rates for each tax might go up or down (but mostly up) without explanation. (The more numerous the tax categories and the greater the frequency of deductions, the more confusion and, therefore, the fewer the complaints.)

How Does All This Fit Together?

 

Let's go back to the ECB. If a negative interest rate exists, the bank no longer pays you interest to encourage you to keep your money with them. They now control all your monetary transactions, and you cannot function without them. The servant has become the master. Therefore, it would not be possible to cease to use the bank for your transactions, should their "negative interest rates" start to climb.

At this point, the government and the bank would, between them, control your money totally. You would find yourself, in effect, "owned by the company store." It's even possible that bank fees and tax rates could be increased as your income increased, so that you might never be able to truly save money, invest, or indeed, act independently of your "owners." The flow of your money would have become centralized, and you could not function without them.

Of course, this is all theory. Surely, this could not come to pass, because people inherently do not wish to be enslaved.

And yet it happened on a wholesale basis in Kentucky and other mining areas in the US. So the question really is, "How did it become possible that people in mining towns volunteered for their own slavery?"
First there was a depression. Many people lost their jobs and their incomes and were prepared to do anything in order to feed their families. So they signed up for the only game in town: the mines. It was dangerous work, there were no benefits, and the coal dust would kill a miner after a time. But as long as he lived, his family had enough to eat. He accepted the deal, because (again) it was the only game in town.

So, back to the present day, where the Greater Depression will soon be on us in full force. A large percentage of jobs will be destroyed, but in addition, this time around, the currency will also be destroyed. In order to pay for goods, particularly food, people will do whatever they have to, to obtain currency. Desperate times, indeed.

But there's a light at the end of the tunnel! The government has chosen to eliminate bank notes and coins, as they ultimately proved to be so destructive. Never again will this be allowed to happen. The new Electronic Currency System will ensure that all money is centrally managed.

The press will declare the new system brilliant, and the harder an individual has been hit by the Greater Depression, the more quickly he will jump on board. The greedy rich have all but destroyed his life, and his government, like a knight in shining armour, has come to save him. Like the miner, he will not be musing on how this will all play out over the decades; he will opt for the promise of relief for his family now.
If this all plays out as described above, it will not be just Kentucky, but entire nations.

Editor's note: The day after this article was written, the ECB announced the introduction of a negative interest rate: 0.1% on deposits. As predicted, the media have already begun to the praise the measure.

To see what the consequences of economic mismanagement can be, and how stealthily disaster can creep up on you, watch the 30-minute documentary, Meltdown America. Witness the harrowing tales of three ordinary people who lived through a crisis, and how their experiences warn of the turmoil that could soon reach the US. Click Here to Watch it Now.



"How the 'World's Worst Trader' Went from Crippling Loss to Consistent Daily Profits...And How You Could Do It Too!"


Friday, June 6, 2014

Are You Ready for Negative Interest Rate and Pay the Bank to Hold Your Money?

The six members of the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board and the 16 governors of the euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. We watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
 

A higher than expected rate is positive for the EUR, while a lower than expected rate is negative for the EUR. Today (Thursday June 5th) we expected a rate cut. The cut was not as much as analysts expected which is bullish for the short term, but the rate is still declining and nearing zero, or even worse, negative territory.


ecbrates eurochart


A negative interest rate may sound crazy or impossible, but it's already happening in Denmark. Europe is already in a deflationary state and central banks are doing everything they can to bring about inflation by cutting rates and devaluing the euro. This will cause a ripple through multiple asset classes and will drastically alter the outcome of individuals worldwide. Just imagine if you had to pay a bank to hold your money and you do not earn any interest but rather pay interest.

People who have been saving their entire lives will get hit the hardest. Retired folks will stop earning money and start paying for all the money they hold held at banks. Individuals will go more into debt because money will be extremely cheap to borrow. Price of assets like equities, real estate, discretionary goods will rise because the cheap money everyone is borrowing will be used to buy more stuff. While all this happens everyone takes on more dept. It is a brutal spiral leading to increase debt levels, inflation and eventually bankruptcy.

If the euro dollar starts to decline at a quicker pace the U.S. dollar will likely rally. A strong dollar could affect the commodities market including gold, silver and the European stock markets. Todays rate cut led to a pop in the euro, but that is likely to be short lived. I hope this sheds some light on the markets and helps in your trading.

Chris Vermeulen

P.S. In the next few days members and myself will be looking to enter some trades based round this analysis. See Premium Trading Video & Newsletter

Sincerely,
Chris Vermeulen


Sign up for one of our Free Trading Webinars....Just Click Here!


Thursday, September 26, 2013

COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept.26th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and U.S. Dollar

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. U.S. economic data for released Thursday was a mixed bag. The weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, while the third quarter gross domestic product report came in a bit weaker than expected. The weekly jobless claims data was deemed fresher news than the GDP data and that helped to lift the stock indexes. In more “Fed speak” this week, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker said Thursday he supported a faster tapering of the Fed's monthly bond buying program and said he is surprised the process has not already begun.

Fed governor Jeremy Stein also said Thursday the FOMC's decision not to taper last week was “a close call.” Notions are growing the Fed could indeed begin to “taper” yet this year. Meantime, the European Central Bank's executive board member said Thursday the ECB needs to continue its expansive monetary policies. The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues have moved to the front burner of the market place. The U.S. government will have to at least partially shut down early next week if Congress does not pass a budget by that time.

Also, in mid October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. This matter could be significantly bearish for most markets in the near term, as there is talk some of the U.S. government will shut down for a short time next week.

November Nymex crude oil closed up $0.28 at $102.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter trading. Crude oil bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage but are fading.

November natural gas closed up 3.5 cents at $3.581 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh five week low early on today. The natural gas bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 0.212 at 80.655 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. The bears still have the near term technical advantage.

December gold futures closed down $11.80 an ounce at $1,324.40. Prices closed nearer the session low today. A firmer U.S. dollar index today helped to pressure gold. A four week old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold market bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

Here's our schedule for upcoming trading webinars!


Thursday, August 8, 2013

Crude Oil Bulls Continue to Fade Despite Positive News out of China

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. The stock index bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage as prices hover not far below the recent for the move highs. Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector. China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year on year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year on year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide. The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement.

September Nymex crude oil closed down $0.87 at $103.49 today. Prices closed near mid range today on more profit taking and weak long liquidation. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage but are fading. If prices back off on Friday then a bearish double top reversal pattern would be confirmed on the daily chart.

September natural gas closed up 6.9 cents at $3.315 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh 13 1/2 month low early on today. The nat gas bears have the solid near term technical advantage, but may now be exhausted following the recent selling pressure. Prices are in a steep three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

December gold futures closed up $24.70 an ounce at $1,310.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw heavy short covering and some fresh bargain hunting. A lower U.S. dollar index also boosted the gold market again today. Gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. However, a bullish weekly high close on Friday would give the bulls some fresh upside near term technical momentum.

September silver futures closed up $0.682 an ounce at $20.19 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a two week high close. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. A weaker U.S. dollar index today boosted the silver bulls.

September coffee closed up 65 points at 121.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw more short covering in a bear market. The coffee bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Get our FREE Trading Webinars Today!


Sunday, July 29, 2012

Crude Oil Prices Will Be Driven by the Externals This Week

From CME Group contributor Dominick Chirihella......

Last week was all about jawboning out of Europe. First from ECB President Draghi followed up by comments from Germany's Merkel reinforcing Draghi's main comment that the ECB will do everything to support the euro. Support for this type of comment from Merkel is very important as Germany is where the money is. For now the jawboning was enough to send many risk asset markets into a modest end of the week short covering rally. However, we can't lose sight that these type of comments have been coming out of Europe for the last three years and so far the sovereign debt issues are still not solved.

The big question is will the bold comments finally be converted to actions. Especially this coming week as the ECB holds its monthly meeting on Thursday August 2. Will the ECB initiate a bold solution that puts the EU problems on the back burner once and for all which has not been the case for the last several years. Will they simply lower short term interest rates and issue the usual support of the euro comments or will their actions include stimulus and some form of bond backing or buying of bonds from the troubles EU member states?

Whatever the ECB decides to do this week the market is now expecting actions that will support the debt problems and drive down the bond yields of the problem countries as well as send the euro into a much longer lasting rally that goes well beyond a simple modest short covering rally like we saw the last two trading days of last week. With the market now trading over the last few session with a strong ray of hope that the ECB and the EU will finally get a handle on the problems any disappointment next week will result in a huge push to the downside in the euro as well as in global equity markets.

Who said August is a quiet and sleepy time for global risk asset markets? Yes many participants are at the peak of the summer vacation season coupled with the London Summer Olympics at its peak but that is not going to prevent the markets from potentially active and volatile trading over the upcoming week and possibly for the rest of the summer. In addition to what is setting up to be a major ECB meeting on Thursday the US Federal Reserve FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday with many expecting the Fed to embark on a new round of quantitative easing of some form. The US economy has slowed to just a 1.5% growth rate a decline of 0.5% from the first quarter. The employment situation is not getting any better and the plethora of economic data that has hit the media airwaves over the last month or so has been supportive of further slowing of the US economy.

Is there enough negative data to support the Fed taking action now (as a recent WSJ article suggested) or will the Fed take a wait and see of what comes out for the ECB on Thursday while it awaits more data points like Friday's latest nonfarm payroll data? A new round of easing out of the US Fed is not a slam dunk at this meeting in my opinion. I think there are many reasons why it will be prudent for the Fed to wait another month or two before initiating a new round of easing that many believe will have limited success in bolstering the US economy and spurting the private sector hiring process. I do not think the Fed will act at this meeting and save their next so called silver bullet until the end of August at the Jackson Hole symposium (possibly mentioned in Bernanke's speech) or until the mid September FOMC meeting.

Just click here to read Dominick Chirihellas entire article

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

CME Morning Crude Oil Market Report For Tuesday June 19th

August crude oil prices traded lower throughout the overnight and early morning hours but were able to turn positive heading into the US opening. It is possible that reports that G-20 leaders were boosting IMF's funding, along with hopes that further stimulus could come from a two day FOMC meeting and potential interest rate cut by the ECB has offered a modest lift to crude oil.

August Brent crude oil registered a new 17 month low this morning, and it too has been able to climb back into positive territory. It is also possible that slow progress in talks between world powers over Iran's nuclear program in Moscow have presented a measure of support to the crude oil market. Negotiations over easing sanctions on Iran made little progress yesterday and seemed to come with tough language.

Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Phil Flynn: It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like!

It's beginning to look a lot like rates cuts, everywhere you go. Take a look at the ECB cutting rates again, with oil gains and silver bulls a-glow! It’s beginning to look a lot like rate cuts, maybe even Quantitative easing in store but the prettiest sight to see is the moment that you see oil put in a floor.

It’s all about Europe and the market expects the European Central Bank will cut rates by another quarter-point to 1%. Of course the market already wants more and hopes the ECB will add a little quantitative easing to help stimulate the economy. The market would like to see the Euro zone flush with cash ahead of its "do or die" Brussels summit as the fate of the Euro currency and the credibility of Europe hangs in the balance.

For oil the increasing prospect of a deal is very bullish. Not only will it improve demand it will devalue paper currencies that are abundant and will start too chase some goods including oil. Remember always that bailouts are bullish.

Yet yesterday’s Energy Information Report wasn’t really. The trade was shocked by a surprise build in commercial crude oil inventories which increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week. The expectations were that supply would fall as refiners and oil companies began to draw down inventory for year end tax considerations.

The other big story from the report was distillate inventories. The EIA said that distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are in the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. David Bird, the man that mashes the statistics for Dow Jones, says that, "US output of distillate fuel (diesel/heating oil) rose 4.2% to a record 5.03M barrels/day last week, EIA data show, as weekly demand was 7% above a year ago at 3.92M. Exports have been very strong of late and the EIA estimates distillates averaged a daily record near 950K barrels. The production surge helped push inventories up 2.5M barrels last week and within 2.5% of the 5-year average, the narrowest gap since October.”

Gasoline supply also surged increasing by 5.1 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range. Gasoline supply builds are the beneficiary of strong diesel demand and record distillate production. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.5 million barrels last week.

Still the overall outlook for oil is still bullish. The distillate production number indicates that refiners expect continuing strong global demand.

President Obama is still fighting the Keystone pipeline despite angering our neighbors to the North, Canada and despite the fact that the pipeline is favored by the majority of the American People. The President warned Republicans he'll veto an extension of the payroll tax if it includes a measure that forces the approval of the Keystone oil sands pipeline. Once again the President is putting his special interests ahead of US job creation and improving our nation’s energy security.

Hello shale and goodbye to coal! In a must read in Today’s Wall Street Journal it is reported that “naural gas will replace coal as the leading fuel for generating electricity in the U.S. by 2025, when it will also become the world's No. 2 overall fuel source thanks to its abundance and a drive for cleaner burning energy, according to the latest long term outlook from Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The closely watched study, set to be released Thursday, forecasts that global energy demand will grow about 30% by 2040 as the world population climbs to nine billion from seven billion.

Natural gas will overtake coal as the second largest fuel source overall, ranking behind oil and powering everything from electrical plants to home heating systems. But Exxon said coal use will continue to grow through 2025 around the world, primarily in developing nations such as China and India and the African continent, because economic growth will be fastest in emerging nations.

But thereafter coal use will start to drop, for the first time in history, according to the study, which Exxon uses to help its long range planning. Key drivers in that expected drop in coal use will be growing demand for fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gases and a decline in China's population expected after 2030.

Exxon in recent years has moved to expand its natural gas business, including the $25 billion purchase of U.S. shale gas producer XTO Energy in 2010.” Don’t miss it!

The CME is looking into a new crude contract. The CME is thinking about a possible futures contract that could be physically settled with delivery to the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned!

I hate to say I told you so, but I did tell you that Libya’s oil production would come back much faster than expected. The EIA confirmed that saying that pace of Libya's re entry into world oil markets has exceeded our prior expectations and those of many other outside observers.” {not mine!} While opinions vary significantly on the eventual trajectory for Libyan oil production, nearly all forecasts have steadily shifted upwards as the country's oil sector and related institutions continue to progress.

The EIA says that “Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) claims to be on track to meet its goal of returning to pre-war crude oil production levels of 1.65 million barrels per day (bbl/d) by the end of 2012. Most analysts now expect production to reach anywhere between 1.0 and 1.6 million bbl/d during that timeframe. Based in part on developments in recent weeks (Table 1), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Libyan output may ramp up to 1 million bbl/d by the beginning of the second quarter of 2012. Thereafter, EIA expects crude oil production to plateau somewhat, increasing only gradually to about 1.2 million bbl/d by the end of 2012, along an uneven and non linear path.”

EIA gas report today! The street is looking for a 13 withdrawal! I say 3. Get a trial to Phil's daily trade levels by emailing him at pflynn@pfgbest.com


Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Rigzone: Crude Rises On Host Of Positive Economic News

Crude oil futures rose in volatile early trading Thursday on a host of bullish economic news, including a drop in initial jobless claims, an increase in business productivity and a European interest rate cut.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was up $1.49, or 1.6%, at $94.00 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up $1.28, or 1.2%, at $110.62 a barrel.

The U.S. said initial jobless claims fell 9,000, to 397,000 in the week ended Oct. 29, slightly lower than analyst expectations of 400,000. Productivity for the quarter was up 3.1% at an annualized rate, and the ECB reduced interest rates by a 0.25 percentage point to 1.25%.

Summit Energy analyst Matt Smith called the European Central Bank's move an "absolutely fabulous curveball" and said it would likely be good for oil prices. "It shows that the ECB not only acknowledges the frailty of the region's economy, but is willing to take whatever steps needed to promote stability," he said in a note......Read the entire Rigzone article.


How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market
Stock & ETF Trading Signals