Thoughts from the Frontline.....France: On the Edge of the Periphery

By John Mauldin

"The emotional side of me tends to imagine France, like the princess in the fairy stories or the Madonna in the frescoes, as dedicated to an exalted and exceptional destiny. Instinctively I have the feeling that Providence has created her either for complete successes or for exemplary misfortunes. Our country, as it is, surrounded by the others as they are, must aim high and hold itself straight, on pain of mortal danger. In short, to my mind, France cannot be France without greatness.

– Charles de Gaulle, from his memoirs

Recently there have been a spate of horrific train wrecks in the news. Almost inevitably we find out there was human error involved. Almost four years ago I began writing about the coming train wreck that was Europe and specifically Greece. It was clear from the numbers that Greece would have to default, and I thought at the time that Portugal would not be too far behind. Spain and Italy clearly needed massive restructuring. Part of the problem I highlighted was the significant imbalance between exports and imports in all of the above countries.

In the Eurozone there was no mechanism by which exchange rates could be used to balance the labor-cost differentials between the peripheral countries and those of the northern tier. And then there's France. I've been writing in this space for some time that France has the potential to become the next Greece. I've spent a good deal of time this past month reviewing the European situation, and I'm more convinced than ever that France is on its way to becoming the most significant economic train wreck in Europe within the next few years.

We shifted focus at the beginning of the year to Japan because of the real crisis that is brewing there. Over the next few months I will begin to refocus on Europe as that train threatens to go off the track again. And true to form, this wreck will be entirely due to human error, coupled with a large dollop of hubris. This week we will take a brief look at the problems developing in Europe and then do a series of in-depth dives between now and the beginning of winter. The coming European crisis will not show up next week but will start playing in a movie theater near you sometime next year. Today's letter will close with a little speculation on how the developing conflict between France and Germany and the rest of its euro neighbors will play out.

France: On the Edge of the Periphery

 

I think I need first to acknowledge that the market clearly doesn't agree with me. The market for French OATS (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor), their longer-term bonds, sees no risk. The following chart is a comparison of interest rates for much of the developed world, which I reproduce for those who are interested in comparative details. Notice that French rates are lower than those of the US, Canada, and the UK. Now I understand that interest rates are a function of monetary policy, inflation expectations, and the demand for money, which are all related to economic growth, but still….



France's neighbors, Italy and Spain, have rates that are roughly double France's. But as we will see, the underlying economics are not that much different for the three countries, and you can make a good case that France’s trajectory may be the worst.

"No: France Is Not Bankrupt" – Really?

 

We will start with a remarkable example of both hubris and economic ignorance published earlier this year in Le Monde. Under the headline "No: France Is Not Bankrupt," Bruno Moschetto, a professor of economics at the University of Paris I and HEC, made the following case. He apparently wrote this with a straight face. If you are not alone, please try not to giggle out loud and annoy people around you. (Hat tip to my good friend Mike Shedlock.)

No, France is not bankrupt .... The claim is untrue economically and financially. France is not and will not bankrupt because it would then be in a state of insolvency.

A state cannot be bankrupt, in its own currency, to foreigners and residents, since the latter would be invited to meet its debt by an immediate increase in taxation.

In abstract, the state is its citizens, and the citizens are the guarantors of obligations of the state. In the final analysis, "The state is us." To be in a state of suspension of payments, a state would have to be indebted in a foreign currency, unable to deal with foreign currency liabilities in that currency….

Ultimately our leaders have all the financial and political means, through the levying of taxes, to be facing our deadlines in euros. And besides, our lenders regularly renew their confidence, and rates have never been lower.

Four things leap to mind as I read this. First, Professor, saying a country is not bankrupt because it would then be insolvent is kind of like saying your daughter cannot be pregnant because she would then have a baby. Just because something is unthinkable doesn't mean it can't happen.

To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – please click here.

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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Begins Week Much Higher

A weaker equities market and a stronger dollar failed to place downward pressure on crude oil Monday. Crude oil for January delivery gained $1.97 to settle at $85.75 a barrel during a trading day influenced by factors ranging from oil products demand to the release of politically sensitive information attributed to U.S. State Department officials. In the latter case, ongoing fallout from the widespread leaks has heightened perceived geopolitical risks.

Exacerbating the geopolitical situation have been escalating tensions between North and South Korea as well as continued speculation about Europe's debt crises. Although the European Union approved a EUR85 billion bailout for Ireland over the weekend, there are fears that other heavily indebted countries such as Spain and Portugal will be next in line for massive financial aid packages. In addition, tightening inventories of gasoline contributed to oil's rally Monday. December gasoline ended the day seven cents higher at $2.28 a gallon

Oil traded within a range from $83.59 to $85.54. Gasoline, meanwhile, peaked at $2.29 and bottomed out at $2.21. Despite a chillier than normal forecast for the Northeast, January natural gas fell 19 cents to settle at $4.21 per thousand cubic feet. The natural gas futures price fluctuated from $4.17 to $4.49.

Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com


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Reuters: Crude Oil Approaches Two Week High on Ireland Rescue

Crude oil rose past $84 on Monday after the European Union approved a rescue for Ireland and outlined a permanent system to resolve the euro zone's debt crisis, providing some confidence that energy demand growth will remain resilient next year. U.S. crude for January rose as much 0.8 percent to $84.46 a barrel, nearing Friday's peak of $84.53, the highest intraday price since November 16, and was up 52 cents at $84.28 by 9:09 p.m. EST. Prices reached a two year high of $88.63 on November 11.

ICE Brent for January rose 57 cents to $86.15, returning to positive territory as the dollar pared gains. Finance ministers from the 16 nation euro zone, anxious to prevent market contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, unanimously endorsed an emergency loan package of 85 billion euros ($115 billion) to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.

"The southern European sovereign debt crisis would have to take a severe turn for the worse to derail positive commodity price trends that are finding strong support from improving fundamentals and positive market sentiment toward growth assets" following the second wave of U.S. expansionary monetary policy, Barclays Capital analysts, including Kevin Norrish, said in a report on Monday.

Still, some market participants were wary that the package for Ireland would fail to end Europe's credit problems, citing the Greek crisis as a precedent of how markets intially reacted positively to a bailout and then slumped. "It is just a relief rally, but there are still so many structural problems that people are already targeting other dominoes like Portugal and Spain," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

Currency and bond traders doubted the deal was enough to prevent fiscally pressured Portugal and Spain from being next in line to suffer a debt crisis. "Markets are not believing measures will be enough to contain the crisis, and that also combines with the tensions in Korea. You wouldn't want to be punting on anything," Kwek said.......Read the entire article.


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Bloomberg: Crude Oil Declines Because of Concern Ireland Debt Crisis May Spread to Spain

Crude oil declined in New York amid concern Ireland’s debt crisis will spread to Portugal and Spain, diminishing the appeal of the region’s assets. Futures slipped as the euro dropped against the dollar, curbing investor demand for raw materials. Floor trading was closed yesterday for Thanksgiving in the U.S. and electronic trades will be booked with today’s for settlement purposes.

With the U.S. markets closed “attention was instead focused on Europe and Ireland bailout talks, with sovereign debt concerns weighing on oil prices,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note today. The January contract fell 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $83.86 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:58 a.m. Sydney time. Futures are 2.9 percent higher this week, heading for the first weekly gain in three weeks. Prices are up 5.6 percent this year.

Oil rose the most in four months on Nov. 24 after U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 2008, bolstering optimism economic growth will accelerate in the biggest crude consuming nation. The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits declined by 34,000 to 407,000. Brent crude for January settlement gained 26 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $86.10 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News

Bloomberg reporter Ben Sharples can be contacted at bsharples@bloomberg.net


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New Video - It's more important to the market than Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain Combined

It's more important to the market than Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain combined

The trials and tribulations of these four countries (that have run up huge deficits) have been well known for quite some time. What is more important in my opinion is not the size of the debt, which is staggering, but rather what is going on with market perception.

Market perception trumps everything else out there. Market perception trumps market fundamentals every time. Market perception is the one card that the government cannot control. It is the card that can potentially give the individual trader an edge.

So what is market perception? Well, have you ever noticed that when some big world event happens, or a new "hot" IPO hits the markets, traders expect that market to go in the talked about direction and typically it does. What doesn't get talked about is how the market then corrects itself and the technicals really come into play.

The only real way to avoid the trap is through the use of technical analysis, or in the case of MarketClub, our "Trade Triangle" technology. This technology doesn't read the newspapers, doesn't watch cable news, and is independent of everything else except the market itself.

What is the most important thing to most investors? I would have to say it is the bottom line. If you're not making money in the market, then you're doing something wrong. Maybe you're paying more attention to the talking heads on cable, or to the nightly news, but you're not really paying attention to market perception.

I was lucky enough when I began my career to learn about technical analysis very early on. I said to myself, when it can be this easy there must be something more that I'm missing. It was then that I made the mistake of looking at all these other so called tools like fundamentals, earnings reports, etc. You name it, I looked at it.

One day I finally got smart and realized that I had already found the "true gold" in trading by using technical analysis.

I was just watching some talking head author on TV and they were saying that technical analysis is so 1920's and old technology. Of course, the person who was saying that was looking to sell copies of their book.

I said to myself, boy oh boy, not to look at technical analysis, which is like the DNA of the market, is a huge mistake. I can see people going out and buying this author's book and being led down the wrong path. I will not name the book as readers of this gobbledygook are going to spin their wheels only to find that it really doesn't work.

Let's keep things simple. That is the secret to successful trading.

At MarketClub we tend to look at the market in a very simple fashion. Let me explain; the market can only do three things: it can go up, it can go down, and it can go sideways. In life there are very few things that you can simplify as easily as that.

So using MarketClub's "Trade Triangles" you are able to determine when the market is going up, in which case you want to be long, and when the market's going down, in which case we want to be short or out of the market.

Now of course we do filter the "Trade Triangles" of MarketClub to help avoid trading losses. With any kind of trading or investing program the risk of loss is always there. The key to success is how you manage those losses. Are the losses small enough as to not bite into your capital in a major way?

Again, when you're looking at market fundamentals or other ways to trade, they really don't tell you when to get out. Obvious examples of this would be the Enron scandal or the recent GM debacle that took unwary investors to the poor house.

But it's hard to fake a market saying everything is great, when the market is heading south. So what is an investor to think? I believe you have to trust your eyes and the direction of the market. After all, that's what makes up your bottom line.

In today's video we're going to be looking at one or two markets and how the "Trade Triangles" are positioned right now. We are not predicting what's going to happen in the future. We are simply going to look at the purity of the "Trade Triangles" and how they can help investors with the most important market element of all, market perception.

As always our videos are free to view and there are no registration requirements.

So watch and enjoy "It's more important to the market than Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and Spain Combined"

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