Showing posts with label Reuters. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reuters. Show all posts

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

One has better odds of being struck by lightning at an airport then a snow plow, or any other ground support vehicles hitting a plane and killing all inside the plane, in my opinion. And I say that as someone who’s familiar with airports, having worked at Vancouver International Airport when I was in university; I was the one who would bring the plane into its parking bay.

If it weren’t for those short odds, a snowplow on the runway with an allegedly drunk driver would be the perfect crime. But who would benefit from his death?

De Margerie was one of the few business leaders who spoke out against the isolation of Russia. On this last trip to Moscow, he railed against sanctions and the obstacles to Russian companies obtaining credit.
He was also an outspoken supporter of Russia’s position in natural gas pricing and transportation disputes with Ukraine, telling Reuters in an interview in July that Europe should not cut its dependence on Russian gas but rather focus on making the supplies more secure.

But what could have made de Margerie a total liability is Total’s involvement in plans to build a plant to liquefy natural gas on the Yamal Peninsula of Russia in partnership with Novatek. Its most ambitious project in Russia to date, it would facilitate the shipping of 800 million barrels of oil equivalent of LNG to China via the Arctic.

Compounding this sin, Total had just announced that it’s seeking financing for a gas project in Russia in spite of the current sanctions against Russia. It planned to finance its share in the $27 billion Yamal project using euros, yuan, Russian rubles, and any other currency but US dollars.

Did this direct threat to the petrodollar make this “true friend of Russia”—as Putin called de Margerie—some very powerful and dangerous enemies amongst the power that be, whether in the French government, the EU, or the US?

In my book The Colder War, one chapter deals with “mysterious deaths” and how they are linked to being on the wrong side of the political equation. Whether it’s going against Putin or against the petrodollar, there are many who have fallen on both sides.

If Total doesn’t close the $27 billion financing it needs to move forward with the Yamal LNG project then we’ll know someone stepped in to prevent an attack on the petrodollar.  The CEO of Total, before his death and his CFO were both strong supporters of Total raising the $27 billion in non U.S. dollars and moving the project forward with the Russians.  But, this could all change if the financing does not complete.

How many other Western executives who dare to help Russia bypass sanctions—and turn it into an energy powerhouse—will die under suspicious circumstances?

Marin Katusa, is author of The Colder War, manager of multiple global energy-exploration hedge funds, and co-founder of Copper Mountain Mining Corporation. Click here to get a copy of his must-read new book, The Colder War. Inside, you’ll discover exactly how Putin is taking over the energy sector, how far ahead he is, and how alarming it is that no one in the US or Europe has even entered the race.

The article Total War over the Petrodollar was originally published at casey research



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Sunday, August 7, 2011

What a Weekend....The United States Has Been Marked Down!

What a weekend!! S&P marks America down to to AA+. That bombshell comes on top of everything else that is happening like the markets crashing and Italy imploding. But you know what, it is also a time of great opportunity if you follow our Trade Triangle technology.

Let’s see how the markets performed last week. Out of the six markets we track every trading day, four markets were in negative territory for the week. The two markets that did not end up in the minus column were gold up 2.25% and the dollar index which was up 1.06%

The percentage loser for the week was crude oil which lost a massive 9.21% and is now officially in a bear trend according to our Trade Triangle technology. The S&P500 was close behind with another negative week which saw this index shed 7.18%.

Let’s take a look at the charts, because unlike politicians, pundits and gurus, they tell you what is really going on in the world.

So here’s what happened last week in the major markets....

S&P500: change for the week: -7.18%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100

Silver: change for the week: -3.38%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65

Gold: change for the week: +2.25%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Crude Oil: change for the week: -9.21%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

$ Index: change for the week: +1.06%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65

CRB Index: change for the week: – 4.46%
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

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Saturday, August 6, 2011

Adam Hewison: Welcome to the Bear Market

From Crude Oil Trader contributor Adam Hewison.....

Ladies and gentlemen, the market action yesterday was real. Please be aware that we have started on a bear market. As we have pointed out in our previous updates, we were looking for a move to the downside. That has now happened with all our indicators firmly in negative mode.

Most folks who are not in their 60s do not remember the bear markets of the 70s and 80s which caused a tremendous amount of pain for investors. It seems as though we just kicked the can down the road for the last time. The markets are bringing common sense back and they will find a solution for the economy.

President Obama came on the TV today to reassure everyone that it was not his fault that the stock market was down, it had to do with Europe, the tsunami in Japan. Mr. President we are and have been in a global economy for years. It’s too bad that Ben Bernanke and you don’t understand that.

Folks who saw their 401(k) and IRA retirement accounts decimated in 2008 are having a déjà vu moment. In the last 10 days the S&P 500 has lost over $1 trillion and we expect it will lose more. A simple solution to get America running again is to cut corporate taxes to 25%. Money will pour in, corporations will start hiring again and start building business. Corporations are the ones that create business and pay taxes in this country. It’s not the government that pays taxes.

So, President Obama will you please help give businesses the environment to thrive in, less regulation, less taxation? This is the only way for the country to get out of this recession.
The key element which is overriding everything right now is the current market psyche....Scared.

Last night every TV and cable show’s lead story was the market crash. If the market closes lower today, everybody will be frantic and worried about their investments over the weekend which means we’ll probably see a continuation early next week to the downside.

The equity markets are getting close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1148 for the S&P 500 index. We expect that this level will be reached. We would expect to see some profit taking at that area and a modest retracement back to the upside. That is not to say we are bullish, it just means we going to see some profit taking coming into this market.

I would like to thank everybody for their positive feedback! We are thankful we can help you muddle through this extremely volatile time in the markets.

So let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Watch Video for update.

SILVER (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
Watch Video for update.

GOLD (SPOT)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 90
Watch Video for update.

CRUDE OIL (SEPTEMBER)

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100
Watch Video for update.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long-Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short-Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 65
Watch Video for update.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100


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Sunday, November 28, 2010

Reuters: Crude Oil Approaches Two Week High on Ireland Rescue

Crude oil rose past $84 on Monday after the European Union approved a rescue for Ireland and outlined a permanent system to resolve the euro zone's debt crisis, providing some confidence that energy demand growth will remain resilient next year. U.S. crude for January rose as much 0.8 percent to $84.46 a barrel, nearing Friday's peak of $84.53, the highest intraday price since November 16, and was up 52 cents at $84.28 by 9:09 p.m. EST. Prices reached a two year high of $88.63 on November 11.

ICE Brent for January rose 57 cents to $86.15, returning to positive territory as the dollar pared gains. Finance ministers from the 16 nation euro zone, anxious to prevent market contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, unanimously endorsed an emergency loan package of 85 billion euros ($115 billion) to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.

"The southern European sovereign debt crisis would have to take a severe turn for the worse to derail positive commodity price trends that are finding strong support from improving fundamentals and positive market sentiment toward growth assets" following the second wave of U.S. expansionary monetary policy, Barclays Capital analysts, including Kevin Norrish, said in a report on Monday.

Still, some market participants were wary that the package for Ireland would fail to end Europe's credit problems, citing the Greek crisis as a precedent of how markets intially reacted positively to a bailout and then slumped. "It is just a relief rally, but there are still so many structural problems that people are already targeting other dominoes like Portugal and Spain," said Michelle Kwek, an analyst at Informa Global Markets in Singapore.

Currency and bond traders doubted the deal was enough to prevent fiscally pressured Portugal and Spain from being next in line to suffer a debt crisis. "Markets are not believing measures will be enough to contain the crisis, and that also combines with the tensions in Korea. You wouldn't want to be punting on anything," Kwek said.......Read the entire article.


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Friday, October 29, 2010

Total Profits Soar on Higher Oil, Refining

French oil company Total posted a 54 percent profit rise on Friday as higher oil and gas prices and strong refining margins lift industry earnings worldwide. Finnish refiner Neste Oil also reported improved profits after similarly strong performances from sector heavyweights Exxon Mobil and Shell on Thursday. Total said net income, excluding unrealized gains related to changes in the value of inventories, was 2.875 billion euros in the third quarter, boosted by gains from selling oil fields.

Stripping out one offs, the result was up 32 percent and in line with analysts' average forecasts. Neste said fatter refining margins lifted its operating profit, excluding inventory gains or losses, by 36 percent to 57 million euros ($79 million), in line with a mean forecast in a Reuters poll. The world's largest non government controlled oil company by market value, Dallas based ExxonMobil, reported a 55 percent jump in net income on Thursday, while industry No. 2, Royal Dutch Shell reported an 18 percent rise, which would have been higher but for non cash charges......Read the entire Reuters article.


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Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Crude Oil Falls Towards $82 on High U.S. Stockpiles, Firm U.S. Dollar


Crude oil fell toward $82 a barrel on Wednesday, extending the steepest one day percentage loss in three months in the previous session, on rising oil inventories and a firm dollar. The dollar surged to a one year high against a basket of six major currencies .DXY. It climbed to its strongest since last May against the Swiss franc as share markets around Asia lost ground on heightening fears that Greece's debt woes could spread to other countries.

U.S. crude for June delivery fell 37 cents to $82.37 a barrel by 0459 GMT. The contract dropped $3.45, or 4 percent, to settle at $82.74 a barrel on Tuesday. In post settlement trading, it ended electronic trading at $82.07, down $4.15 or 4.78 percent, the largest one day percentage loss since the 4.99 percent slide on February 4.

London Brent crude lost 32 cents to $85.35 a barrel. "The main influences now are the rise in the dollar, the sovereign concerns in the euro zone spreading into Portugal and Spain. I think a pretty important factor though going forward is the build in oil stocks in the United States," said Ben Westmore, an analyst at National Australia Bank.

"The price at those low $80s per barrel sort of mark is consistent with the market fundamental alone. I would expect oil price to track around the low $80s for the rest of the week." The dollar, which rose 0.37 percent against a basket of currencies on Wednesday, was supported by signs that the U.S. economy was on the mend. Data released on Tuesday showed pending U.S. home sales rose 5.3 percent in March while factory orders increased 1.3 percent. Both numbers handily beat forecasts.

A strong U.S. currency makes dollar denominated commodities, such as oil, more pricey for holders of other currencies and tends to dampen crude prices. Crude oil inventories at the key storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose by 1.7 million barrels to a record high of 36.3 million barrels, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed.

Overall, U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 3 million barrels in the week to April 30, API data showed, versus analyst expectations of a 1.1 million barrel rise in the latest Reuters poll. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.5 million barrels last week, sharply higher than a rise of 200,000 barrels analysts had expected. Distillates, including heating oil and diesel, rose by 1.4 million barrels, versus expectations of a 1.7 million barrel rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report is set to arrive on Wednesday at 1400 GMT.

Crude oil prices have not been seriously impacted so far from a giant oil spill off the U.S. Gulf Coast. A flotilla of nearly 200 boats tackled a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, taking advantage of calm weather to intensify containment efforts while a scientist warned that a powerful current could carry the crude to Miami and points beyond.


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Monday, October 26, 2009

Dollar Bounces After Slumping Against Euro, Crude Reverses


U.S. crude futures fell on Monday, reversing direction as the dollar bounced off early lows and as Wall Street slumped after opening higher. Sources also said crude's earlier rise above $81 a barrel, which failed to take out the 2009 peak of $82 from last week, and mild U.S. weather provided pressure on heating oil.

The dollar rallied from 14 month lows versus the euro as riskier assets like commodities and U.S. equities fell. The dollar struggled earlier after an opinion piece in a Chinese newspaper said China should increase its holdings of euros and yen in its foreign reserves. U.S. stocks fell, dragged lower by materials and financial shares, erasing earlier gains.

"Crude is trying to consolidate and it's definitely sensitive to swings in the dollar," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut ......Read the entire article.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

UNG Mulls Investment in Interests Outside Futures


NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG.P), an exchange traded fund in the natural gas market, reiterated on Tuesday that it could invest in interests other than futures contacts to comply with accountability levels and position limits.

UNG told Reuters last month it rebalanced its portfolio to decrease positions in listed natural gas futures, while increasing the fund's holdings in over the counter natural gas swaps.

In a filing Tuesday, UNG said it may invest in other interests including cash-settled options on futures contracts, forward contracts for natural gas, cleared swap contracts and over the counter transactions based on natural gas, crude oil and other petroleum based fuels.

UNG said that despite the move futures contracts will remain its principle investment. (Reporting by Edward McAllister; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

The Chinese Oil Demand Teaser


One day China’s oil demand is bad and the next, good. Welcome to another mystery from The Middle Kingdom. Yesterday oil prices were pressured on reports of bulging inventories in China and weak demand. Platts reported that Chinese oil demand in August slid 5.4% from July. Platts said that China's implied oil demand totaled 33.02 million metric tons in August versus 34.92 million metric tons in July. Oil refiners in China are reporting that demand is still weak. Reuter’s news reported that Chinese oil company Sinopec had sales of refined oil products still lower than one year ago. Reuters says that despite a moderate inventory draw in August, China's diesel inventories had been building up faster than gasoline had in past months, reflecting the slower consumption for the main transportation fuel used by Chinese industry and trucks.....Read the entire article

Friday, July 31, 2009

Chevron Profits Tumble 71 pct Because of Cheap Oil


Chevron Corp. says its second quarter profit fell 71 percent as demand for crude oil and gasoline plunged. Chevron, the second largest U.S. oil company, said Friday its net income amounted to $1.75 billion, or 87 cents per share, for the three-month period that ended June 30. That compared with $5.98 billion, or $2.90 per share, in the same period last year. The company said its net income suffered from a weak U.S. dollar, amounting to $453 million in reduced earnings. That compares with an income benefit of $126 million in the same period last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 95 cents per share. Those estimates typically exclude one time items.....Your keyword

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