Showing posts with label Total. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Total. Show all posts

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Here’s Why Crude Oil Stocks Haven’t Bottomed Yet

By Justin Spittler

Oil companies are hemorrhaging money. The oil market is in its worst downturn in decades. The price of oil has plummeted 72% since June 2014. Oil is trading below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2003.
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know the world has too much oil. In recent years, technologies like “fracking” have unlocked billions of barrels of oil that were once impossible to extract from shale regions.
Global oil production has climbed 20% since 2000. Last year, global output hit an all time high. Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported the global oil market is oversupplied by 1.5 million barrels a day.
Because oil is leaving the ground faster than it’s being consumed, oil storage tanks are overflowing. 

Companies are now storing oil on tankers floating at sea, according to Bloomberg Business.

Low oil prices have slammed oil stocks..…
Since June 2014, Exxon Mobil (XOM), the world’s largest oil company, has dropped 27%. Chevron (CVX), the second biggest oil company, has plunged 38%. European oil giants Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A), BP (BP), and Total S.A. (TOT) have plummeted 46%, on average, over the last 18 months. Together, these giant companies are known as the oil “supermajors.”

BP had a $3.3 billion net loss last quarter..…
And it lost $6.5 billion for the year, its worst annual loss in at least 30 years. Exxon sales fell 28% last quarter. Its profits plunged 58% to $2.78 billion, the company’s lowest quarterly profit since 2002. Chevron also booked its worst quarterly profit since 2002. Shell expects to report a 42% decline in profits for their fourth quarter.

Oil and gas companies slashed spending by 22% last year..…
Analysts expect another 12% cut this year to $522 billion, according to Reuters. The industry hasn’t spent that little since 2009…when the U.S. economy was going through its worst downturn in almost a century. More spending cuts are coming this year. Chevron plans to cut spending by 24% this year. The company laid off 10% of its employees in October. Exxon plans to cut spending by 25% in 2016. And BP plans to eliminate 9% of its jobs over the next two years.

The supermajors have not cut dividends yet..…
Regular readers know these oil giants pay some of the steadiest income streams on the planet. Shell hasn’t cut its dividend since World War II. Exxon and Chevron have both increased their annual dividends for at least the past 25 years, which earns them a spot in the “Dividend Aristocrats” club. Investors view these dividends as sacred. Some have even passed along their original shares to children and grandchildren, like grandma’s ring or the family farm. These giant oil companies have been paying regular dividends for decades, even through the 2001 dot com crash and 2008 financial crisis. Cutting their dividends would be a last resort.

The world’s oil giants may have to do the “unthinkable” if oil prices stay low..…
Financial Times reported in December,
…(J)ust weeks ago, BP and France’s Total each pledged to balance their books at $60 a barrel oil, saying they aimed to cover their dividends from “organic” cash flow by 2017.
…(E)ven at $60, the three biggest European majors will need to take further cost-cutting action to cover investor payouts…Total’s $6.8bn dividend would exceed its projected organic free cash flow by $800m two years from now. For BP, the cash shortfall is put at $500m…
These oil companies cut costs to be profitable at $60 oil. But with oil now at $30, they need to make even more drastic cuts.
BP is running out of places to cut spending according to Bloomberg Business.
While Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley has trimmed billions of dollars of spending, cut thousands of jobs and deferred projects in response to the plunge in crude prices, BP’s cash flow still doesn’t cover investments and dividends…
BP has already cut “a lot” from capital expenditure, Chief Financial Officer Brian Gilvary said Tuesday at a press briefing in London. When asked how much room it has to reduce spending further before cutting into the bone, Gilvary said “we are around that zone.”

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) downgraded Chevron and Shell this week..…
Ratings agencies downgrade a company’s credit rating when they think the company’s financial health is getting worse. Like a person having a bad credit score, a downgrade can make it harder and more expensive for a company to borrow money. S&P cut Shell’s credit rating to the lowest level since 1990. S&P also put the debt of BP, Total, and Exxon on watch for downgrades.

S&P doesn’t think oil companies have cut spending enough. Bloomberg Business reported:
S&P’s moves come after the ratings company lowered its 2016 oil-price assumption Jan. 12, reducing Brent crude by $15 a barrel to $40. The 52 percent average price decline in 2015 won’t be matched by most companies’ cost and spending reductions, S&P said.
As regular readers know, the oil market is cyclical. It goes through big booms and busts. Eventually we’ll get an amazing opportunity to buy world-class oil companies at absurdly cheap prices. But with dividend cuts looming, the bottom likely isn’t in yet. We recommend avoiding oil stocks for now.

Louis James, editor of International Speculator, sees an opportunity to profit from cheap oil..…
Louis is our resource guru. He specializes in finding small miners with huge upside. Louis is an expert in the cyclical nature of commodities. He knows how to make money during booms and busts. And now, Louis sees opportunity in airlines. Jet fuel, which is made from oil, is a major operating expense for airlines. So, airline stocks often move up when oil drops. Last year, jet fuel prices fell by more than one-third. Major airlines are now raking in cash. The U.S. airline industry made $22 billion in profits during the first nine months of 2015, according to the Department of Transportation. That’s more than any entire year in its history.

In December, Louis recommended his favorite airline stock in International Speculator.....
The company has doubled its profits during the third quarter of 2015. On Monday, Louis said the company doubled its profits again last quarter.
The company just announced more-than-solid financial results for last quarter, doubling its quarterly profit. The company says it’s on track to hit the high end of its operational goals for the fiscal year. All great, but even better is that the stock rebounded from its recent slide on the news. That’s “proof of concept” that this stock can buck the market by delivering to the bottom line when other businesses are hurting, which was one of the main reasons we bought this stock.
The stock surged 4% with the quarterly news…and Louis thinks the stock will continue higher. You can learn more about Louis’ favorite airline by signing up for a risk-free trial to International Speculator.

Chart of the Day

BP just had its worst year in at least three decades. Today’s chart shows BP’s profits since 1985. Since then, the oil giant has made money in 27 years and lost money in 3. Last year, BP lost a record amount of money. It lost more than it did in 2010 when one of the company's oil rigs exploded in the Gulf of Mexico. BP has cut billions of dollars in spending. It’s laid off thousands of workers. Yet, it’s still bleeding cash. The company may soon have to do the unthinkable and cut its dividend.




The article Here’s Why Oil Stocks Haven’t Bottomed Yet was originally published at caseyresearch.com.


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Saturday, October 25, 2014

Total War over the Petrodollar

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

The conspiracy theories surrounding the death of Total SA’s chief executive, Christophe de Margerie, started the second the news broke of his death. Under mysterious circumstances in Moscow, his private jet collided with a snowplow just after midnight. De Margerie was the CEO of Total, France’s largest oil company.

He’d just attended a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, at a time when the West’s relationship with Russia is fraught, to say the least.

One has better odds of being struck by lightning at an airport then a snow plow, or any other ground support vehicles hitting a plane and killing all inside the plane, in my opinion. And I say that as someone who’s familiar with airports, having worked at Vancouver International Airport when I was in university; I was the one who would bring the plane into its parking bay.

If it weren’t for those short odds, a snowplow on the runway with an allegedly drunk driver would be the perfect crime. But who would benefit from his death?

De Margerie was one of the few business leaders who spoke out against the isolation of Russia. On this last trip to Moscow, he railed against sanctions and the obstacles to Russian companies obtaining credit.
He was also an outspoken supporter of Russia’s position in natural gas pricing and transportation disputes with Ukraine, telling Reuters in an interview in July that Europe should not cut its dependence on Russian gas but rather focus on making the supplies more secure.

But what could have made de Margerie a total liability is Total’s involvement in plans to build a plant to liquefy natural gas on the Yamal Peninsula of Russia in partnership with Novatek. Its most ambitious project in Russia to date, it would facilitate the shipping of 800 million barrels of oil equivalent of LNG to China via the Arctic.

Compounding this sin, Total had just announced that it’s seeking financing for a gas project in Russia in spite of the current sanctions against Russia. It planned to finance its share in the $27 billion Yamal project using euros, yuan, Russian rubles, and any other currency but US dollars.

Did this direct threat to the petrodollar make this “true friend of Russia”—as Putin called de Margerie—some very powerful and dangerous enemies amongst the power that be, whether in the French government, the EU, or the US?

In my book The Colder War, one chapter deals with “mysterious deaths” and how they are linked to being on the wrong side of the political equation. Whether it’s going against Putin or against the petrodollar, there are many who have fallen on both sides.

If Total doesn’t close the $27 billion financing it needs to move forward with the Yamal LNG project then we’ll know someone stepped in to prevent an attack on the petrodollar.  The CEO of Total, before his death and his CFO were both strong supporters of Total raising the $27 billion in non U.S. dollars and moving the project forward with the Russians.  But, this could all change if the financing does not complete.

How many other Western executives who dare to help Russia bypass sanctions—and turn it into an energy powerhouse—will die under suspicious circumstances?

Marin Katusa, is author of The Colder War, manager of multiple global energy-exploration hedge funds, and co-founder of Copper Mountain Mining Corporation. Click here to get a copy of his must-read new book, The Colder War. Inside, you’ll discover exactly how Putin is taking over the energy sector, how far ahead he is, and how alarming it is that no one in the US or Europe has even entered the race.

The article Total War over the Petrodollar was originally published at casey research



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Friday, April 26, 2013

Friday's Earnings.....Chevron [CVX], National Oilwell Varco [NOV] and Total [TOT]

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today reported earnings of $6.2 billion ($3.18 per share – diluted) for the first quarter 2013, compared with $6.5 billion ($3.27 per share – diluted) in the 2012 first quarter. Sales and other operating revenues in the first quarter 2013 were $54 billion, down from $59 billion in the year - ago period, mainly due to lower prices for crude oil.

“Our first quarter earnings were strong, ”said Chairman and CEO John Watson. “Our consistent financial performance has enabled us to significantly increase the dividend again, and fund major development projects that are the foundation of the company’s future growth in production, earnings and cash flows.” “Our key development projects remain on track,” Watson added.

“Construction is progressing well on the Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in Australia. Important milestones have been reached recently for our Jack/St. Malo and Big Foot deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico, and both remain on schedule for start - up in 2014”......Read the entire Chevron earnings report.

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) today reported that for its first quarter ended March 31, 2013 it earned net income of $502 million, or $1.17 per fully diluted share, compared to fourth quarter ended December 31, 2012 net income of $668 million, or $1.56 per fully diluted share. The first quarter 2013 results included transaction costs primarily related to the Robbins & Myers acquisition and Venezuela currency devaluation charges, which combined for a total of $73 million in pre tax costs and charges. Excluding these costs and charges, earnings were $553 million, or $1.29 per fully diluted share.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2013 were $5.31 billion, a decrease of seven percent from the fourth quarter of 2012 and an increase of 23 percent from the first quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the quarter, excluding the transaction charges, was $816 million, or 15.4 percent of sales. Sequentially, first quarter operating profit decreased 14 percent, while year-over-year first quarter operating profit decreased seven percent......Read the entire National Oilwell Varco earnings report.

Total (TOT) reports 1st quarter adjusted net profit -7.1% to €2.86B, slightly below consensus of €2.95B. Net profit -58% to €1.54B, due to higher taxes and a €1.25B loss related to the sale of a Canadian oil sands project. Revenues -6% to €48.13B. Oil prices -5%. As expected, oil and gas output -2% to 2.32M barrels of oil equivalent a day, with the decline due to the shutdown of the U.K.'s Elgin-Franklin gas fields, natural decline rates, and maintenance. Remains confident of achieving targets. Total declares a 1st quarter dividend of $0.59 per share, unchanged from previous quarter. ADR timetable: Ex dividend date September 19th, record date September 23, Payment date October 15th......Read the entire Total earnings report.

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Friday, October 29, 2010

Total Profits Soar on Higher Oil, Refining

French oil company Total posted a 54 percent profit rise on Friday as higher oil and gas prices and strong refining margins lift industry earnings worldwide. Finnish refiner Neste Oil also reported improved profits after similarly strong performances from sector heavyweights Exxon Mobil and Shell on Thursday. Total said net income, excluding unrealized gains related to changes in the value of inventories, was 2.875 billion euros in the third quarter, boosted by gains from selling oil fields.

Stripping out one offs, the result was up 32 percent and in line with analysts' average forecasts. Neste said fatter refining margins lifted its operating profit, excluding inventory gains or losses, by 36 percent to 57 million euros ($79 million), in line with a mean forecast in a Reuters poll. The world's largest non government controlled oil company by market value, Dallas based ExxonMobil, reported a 55 percent jump in net income on Thursday, while industry No. 2, Royal Dutch Shell reported an 18 percent rise, which would have been higher but for non cash charges......Read the entire Reuters article.


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Friday, September 11, 2009

Total CEO Says Oil Prices Could Hit $145 by 2014

Total's Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie foresees the price per barrel of crude oil surpassing $145 in the near future, reports Dow Jones Newswires. In an interview with Le Parisien published Friday, the head of the French oil major said, "We risk to face a new oil crisis at a time when demand will surpass supply in 2014/15."

"It is urgent that we invest," Margerie added. Margerie revealed that Total has bank accounts in "tax havens," and should a decision be made at an international level, the company would be prepared to withdraw the money, Dow Jones reported.

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Monday, February 23, 2009

Changes Coming For Controversial Oil Leases, Total Denies Deal


"US Interior Sec to Review Oil Companies Controversial Leases"
U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Friday that changes regarding oil companies' leases would likely be part of a comprehensive energy bill Congress is drafting....Complete Story

"Total CEO Denies 'Sealed Deal' with Iran for South Pars Development"
Total's Chief Executive Officer has denied that the French oil giant and Iran are signing a deal before the end of March for the next phase of development at the massive South Pars gas field....Complete Story

"AEA: Offshore Drilling Could Deliver Huge Payoff in Jobs, Revenue"
The American Energy Alliance said lifting the U.S. prohibition on new offshore drilling would provide 1.2 million jobs and substantial revenue....Complete Story

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Total Beats Estimates and Eni Sells Livorno Refinery


"Total Beats Profit Estimates, Will Maintain Investment Spending in 2009"
Total SA, Europe’s third largest oil company, reported fourth quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates and pledged to maintain investment spending at a similar level to last year to revive production growth....Complete Story

"Api Said to Join Investors in Offering to Buy Eni's Livornro Oil Refinery"
Anonima Petroli Italiana SpA, an Italian gas station company, together with a group of investors, has made an offer to buy an Eni SpA refinery in Livorno, Italy, said Enrico Risaliti, a businessman who is part of the bid....Complete Story

"Unconventional Gas Boosts Outlook for Future Supply"
CERA has augmented its expectations for North American gas supply in the wake of successful unconventional gas production....Complete Story

"Shell Declares Force Majeure on Nigeria Bonny Oil"
Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on its Nigerian Bonny oil shipments due to insecurity in the Niger Delta....Complete Story
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