Gold Prediction using Statistics & Technical Analysis

Here is my gold prediction (silver and gold mining stocks, should be the same) looking forward 24 months.
Since the top in gold in 2011 gold has been selling off. Depending on how you analyze the market, this 3 year sell off could be seen as consolidation within a major cyclical bull market or that it’s in a bear market. But know this, either way, the outlook is bullish, and all gold has to do is find a bottom here and rally above the $1400 per ounce level. This would kick start a major feeding frenzy of gold buying.

Gold bear market in the past have on average corrected 33% and lasted a total of 550 days. So if we look at the stats of the current pullback in gold it has dropped 38% and about 700 days long. Time for a bottom and bull market? It sure seems like it.

You can see my recent report on the U.S. Dollar and Gold Forecast.
 

Gold Prediction Technical Outlook:

Gold remains in a down trend, but looks to be starting a possible stage 1 basing pattern. Technical analysis is pointing to strength as the MACD moving higher, relative strength, and the down trendline show price and momentum being bullish.

A few weeks ago the chart completed a Golden Cross. This is not shown on the chart, but it is when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA. Investors tend to look at this as a major long term buy signal, although I do not use it for any of my analysis or timing of the market.

If historical data, statistics, and technical analysis prove to be correct we can expect gold to rise. My gold prediction is for price to reach $2300 - $2500 per ounce within 24 months.

Gold Prediction Conclusion:

The average gold bull market last roughly 450 days and posts a gain of 95%. So with the current correction which is beyond these levels already, expect price to firm up this year and complete the stage 1 base. Note that until gold breaks out of its Stage 1 Basing pattern, I will remain bearish/neutral on the metal. There is a huge opportunities else where unfolding.

Chris Vermeulen

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Is this Gold's "Best of the Breed" a Golden Rocket!

Gold and gold stocks have be stabilizing for months and have been quietly rising. Many gold stocks are up 30% even 50% in the past three months. The $HUI AMEX Gold Bugs Index is up over 30% from the lows.

If you think you have missed most of the move already you are wrong. The truth is most of the biggest rallies in stocks take place after a basing pattern with 30 -50% or more has formed. This is signaling massive accumulation in gold stocks and its happening right now by the institutions.

So in this exclusive report I want to share one golden rocket stock pick which I feel has huge upside potential “IF” the precious metals market and miners can breakout of this stage 1 pattern it has formed.

One thing that excites me is about precious metals and gold stocks is the fact that we have heard nothing about gold, silver or mining stocks in the media for months… almost like the big institutions have told the media to avoid putting the spot light on it until they accumulate all they can in terms of physical bullion and stock shares.

This is the same for a few other sectors I have been watching build massive stage 1 bases in over the past few months and will be investing and actively trading them also once they break out of the basing stage.


Gold Stock Trading & Investing Success Formula

1. KISS – Keep It Simple Stupid! – Non one likes or follows complicated trading strategies

2. Understand and know how to identify the four market stages – Read My Book: Click Here

3. Know why and how stages must be traded for timing your entry, profit taking and exits.

4. Scan the market for the top performing sectors and focus on stocks/ETFs within those sectors.

5. Review all stocks and funds to meet setup criteria and trade only the best looking charts primed to start a new bull market (low overhead resistance nearby, strong relative strength, strong volume on breakout, 30 week SMA moving up etc..) Get this done for you: Click Here

6. Sit back, watch and monitor position for possible change in the stage, to adjust stops and identify profit taking levels.


Golden Rock Stock Pick

The chart below is top quality gold stock which has all the characteristics of a big winner. Just to be clear, I normally do not mention individual stocks within public reports. I am not compensated in any way to post this report. This is nothing more than my technical outlook on a stock and not investment advice. I do plan on buying some shares of this company this week or next.





Golden Rocket Conclusion:

While it still my be a little early for precious metals to bottom, it looks as though the stage (pardon the pun) has been set for a precious metals bull market to start. As they say, there is always a bull market somewhere… the key is finding it and taking the proper action.

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Sincerely,

Chris Vermeulen
Founder of Technical Traders Ltd. - Partnership Program

Check out our other "Gold and Crude Oil Trading Ideas"