Showing posts with label The Casey Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Casey Report. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Doug Casey on ISIS, Gold, Crude Oil, and What to Expect in 2015

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist

Today's feature is a special treat: a peek into the brain of one of the most successful speculators of all time. In what follows, Doug Casey talks to Louis James about what to expect in 2015. Doug weighs in on today's most important issues, including ISIS, oil, Putin, and the stock market. He even sticks his nose out to make a bold call on gold.

This (usually subscriber only) content originally appeared in The Casey Report.......Enjoy!

Louis James: It’s been a long, eventful quarter since we last spoke, Doug. What’s most on your mind as 2014 draws to a close and we look ahead to 2015?

Doug Casey: Let’s start with gold, since that’s the main focus we’ve had for so long. The Swiss gold reserve referendum just went down in flames, of course, and that was a big disappointment to many.

L: Really? I don’t know anyone who was surprised.

Doug: Well, surprise and disappointment aren’t the same thing. I’m constantly disappointed by how stupid people are, but I’m never surprised by it. There were early signs of support for the measure, but the powers that be mounted an immense propaganda campaign against it, and they succeeded. I hear that the balance sheet of the Swiss central bank has expanded faster than that of any other central bank in the world—

L: Whoa—that would explain a lot.

Doug: Yes. Relying on the Swiss franc to preserve your capital today is like relying on Swiss banks to preserve your privacy. Only fools would trust in either at this point. Despite that, Switzerland may still be sounder than any other country in Europe—which is really saying something about how bad things have gotten in Europe.

L: I’ve learned from you, Doug, not to pay too much attention to gold’s daily fluctuations, but I have to say that it was a singular day the Monday after the Swiss referendum failed. Gold dropped like a rock the moment it started trading, but quickly reversed and kept rising and rising all day long, making an $80/ounce swing from trough to peak. Did you notice that, and what do you make of it?

Doug: I suspect short covering; too many people were short because they expected the referendum to fail and then had to cover. Those inclined toward conspiracy theories may say that the initial retreat was “da boys” hitting the paper gold market with thousands of gold contracts in the middle of the New York night—timed perfectly to coincide with the Swiss vote. If there were any truth to that, the people promoting the notion would all be billionaires. But they’re not.

L: I understand your position that it could have been private players doing the same thing for profit, but let’s suppose for a moment that the government conspiracy is real. If so, the fact that gold buyers swamped the selling and pushed the price higher that day shows that the conspirators can at most influence gold, not control its price, and there’s hope in that.

Doug: I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories regarding gold price suppression. There’s zero credible evidence for it, and I’m embarrassed having to discuss the subject with outsiders who have heard it; for them it’s more evidence that gold investors all wear tinfoil hats. The fact is the government doesn’t care about gold; they really do think it’s a barbarous relic that should be used to plate urinals, as Lenin supposedly suggested. They don’t care about its price, and even less about that of silver. That said, I’ll stick my nose out and say that I think the bottom for gold has come and gone, with that spike downward.

L: I haven’t made a formal call, but my gut take is the same, and I said so in the current edition of the International Speculator. I published a chart showing one of those days—and there have been quite a few recently—in which gold sold off sharply during a time of light trading volume, only to rebound and close the day higher. To me, this is evidence that there’s a large pool of deep-pocketed buyers out there for whom the current gold trading range is attractive and who back up the truck for more every time it gets cheaper.

Doug: At least two of those buyers are the Chinese and the Russians. The Russians at least appear to disclose their gold holdings every month, and they keep rising and rising. China is less transparent, but they have become the world’s largest gold producer—and they not only don’t export any gold, they import more than anyone else, with the occasional exception of India.

This is important because at the end of the day, the paper market must eventually follow what’s happening in the real world of physical trade in a physical thing like gold. And the reality in the physical market for gold is that global demand is very strong. If any genius is actually suppressing the gold price in Western dominated paper markets, they are simply doing the Russians and Chinese a huge favor, helping them move gold from West to East cheaply. That’s all anyone really needs to know.

L: Understood. But of course, for many gold investors out there, it’s once bitten, twice shy.

Doug: There’s no question that gold has had a severe retracement since its high in September of 2011. I understand their feelings. But we’re not talking about feelings here; we’re talking about markets. Markets cycle. This one has cycled about as low as any gold market in past corrections, and now I think it’s time for it to cycle up again.

L: Now there’s a “forward-looking statement.”

Doug: It’s just my opinion. Everyone’s got one.

L: Heh—well, as Captain Kirk once said to Mr. Spock, “I trust your guesses more than I trust most people’s so-called facts.” But enough on that: what else are you seeing in the markets today?

Doug: The big retreat in oil prices is obviously important.

L: It’s certainly capturing a lot of headlines. What do you think: is this new US oil boom the beginning of the end for OPEC, as so many would love to believe?

Doug: OPEC works fine in a bull market, when everyone is a rich genius. But half the governments in OPEC are broke, they’re all run by morons, and they all cheat on quotas as suits them. OPEC is really just a public relations gimmick at this point—one that allows a bunch of corrupt ministers a chance to live high off the hog and feel important at their meetings.

But there’s no denying that there’s been a sea change in the global energy markets. Fracking and horizontal drilling have created a major surge in US oil production—a big deal in a fungible commodity that has impacted the whole world. The technology will spread everywhere, and costs will drop. But decline curves are steep. You probably need $70-$80 oil to make it work.

Meanwhile, countries like Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran live off of oil revenue and will sell all they can produce at any price they can get. Besides, I think the world economy is slowing down—just look at Europe and China. All of this just means that the energy market went through an entirely predictable down cycle.

L: Any sense of where that bottom is?

Doug: Not a clear one, but we’re probably approaching it, if it hasn’t come and gone as well. Remember that most commodities move roughly together in cycles. Grains, metals, energy—a lot of commodities have fallen significantly in price. And the next step is down for the world economy. Way down.

L: That reminds me of what Rick Rule likes to say: the cure for low prices is low prices. People aren’t going to suddenly decide they don’t need metals, energy, or food. If high oil prices made expensive shale oil production profitable, lower prices will cut back on that supply, driving the price back up again, starting a new cycle.

Doug: Yes, though in the long run, oil supply will simply not be a problem. Oil is just a hydrocarbon, and all you need to make it is CO2, water, and energy. I really don’t worry about future supplies of energy. We’ll have to go through the wringer to get there, but things will eventually get better—not only better than most people imagine, but better than most can imagine.

L: So with that big picture in mind, do developments like the Russians canceling their South Stream pipeline idea in favor of a new route through Turkey matter?

Doug: Not really. The devil can be in the details, but these are just details. More important, as Marin points out in his new book, The Colder War, Putin is the smartest and toughest politician on the international scene today. Whether or not we like him isn’t relevant; we should expect his decisions to be intelligent, given his goals.

For example, as we’ve discussed before, from the Russian perspective, his actions helping Russian populations break their provinces away from Ukraine make perfect sense. The actions of the US-installed puppet government in Kiev are criminal and insane, trying to recapture those people who want independence in eastern Ukraine by force.

So even though he’s not a “nice guy,” I’m a Putin fan.

L: We’re going to have to agree to disagree on that one. I fear the man wants to be Tsar of the World—and he may be ruthless enough to pull it off. And I don’t understand why you’re so quick to dismiss US/EU propaganda but buy into Russian propaganda. You haven’t been to Ukraine to determine the facts for yourself. Neither have I, but I have friends there, and I believe you’re misinformed. That said, I know that you’re basically in favor of all secession movements regardless of the particulars. You’d ultimately like to see every person on earth secede from any and all governments, and with that I agree.

Doug: I don’t think a visit would help. And just because the Russians say something doesn’t mean it’s wrong. You simply have to support breakaway provinces, whether they’re in Spain, Italy, Ukraine, or wherever. It’s logical the Russians would try to help them secede and extremely provocative of the US government to arm the bankrupt regime in Kiev to prevent it.

L: Okay then—what else is on your mind?

Doug: The ISIS phenomenon in the Middle East. Everyone sees these people as the latest devil incarnate, but to me this turn of events is perfectly predictable—

L: It’s not just predictable, Doug: you did predict it. You’ve been saying for years—decades—that all these lines on the maps of Africa and the Middle East were drawn up in boardrooms in Europe with no regard for the historical, tribal, linguistic, religious, and economic groups they cut apart or the different and often mutually hostile peoples they forced together. I’ve heard you say many times that those lines would change, and now it’s happening.

Doug: Well, okay, that’s true. But the point is that as distasteful as these ISIS people may be to Western sensibilities, they speak for a large number of people who see the world their way, so it’s no surprise to see them gaining ground, cutting across borders they never believed in to begin with. What’s happening with ISIS is natural and inevitable.

The fact that they execute people by beheading is picturesque in a way many Westerners find offensive—but it is by nature no more offensive than state executions in the US. Strapping a guy to a chair and running electricity through him or strapping him to a table and injecting poisons into him is equally barbaric. The public executions are a distraction, however; the Saudis execute scores of people the same way for much the same reasons every year, and they’re supposed to be our bosom buddies.

What matters is that this movement has a great deal of support and it’s growing. It’s actually a good thing from the perspective of the people in that part of the world who want that kind of society. That means it will dig in and have staying power. I don’t think it’s going to dry up and blow away. I would not, however, rely on the media for an accurate description or interpretation of events.

And we should expect similar disintegrations of nonsense countries and reorganization of peoples into more natural groupings to spread across the Middle East and throughout Africa. You’d think some heads would roll, at least metaphorically, in Washington after the Iraqi Army—which was the recipient of scores of billions of wasted US taxpayer funds—collapsed totally. They fled and left their weapons for the insurgents. The neocons have absolutely no shame—which, incidentally, is a hallmark of a real sociopath. I’m much more afraid of the people in control of the US government than I am of ISIS.

L: What I don’t understand about this ISIS thing is that they seem to be setting up a “real” government—this new caliphate they want recognized—with defined and accepted territory. That makes them vulnerable to straightforward military action; they become a country that can be warred upon, not just a terrorist group that can disappear in the desert. So, if they are the Bad Guys, why don’t those governments that oppose them wage real war on them and wipe them out?

Doug: Well, what stupidity doesn’t explain, incompetence often does. None of the state armies in the Middle East is worth the powder it would take to blow it to hell; they’re nothing but vehicles for graft and oppressing the people. Half the soldiers are likely sympathetic with the jihadists, if only because they hate their corrupt officers. In warfare, Napoleon said, the psychological is to the physical as three is to one. So don’t bet against ISIS.

And don’t call them terrorists. The word has become a meaningless pejorative. I’m a freedom fighter, you’re a rebel, he’s a terrorist. Entirely apart from the fact that terrorism is just a tactic or sometimes a strategy, like artillery barrages or cavalry charges. We’ll see if they succeed in staking out a territory. Maybe they won’t bother; maybe they’ll become a phyle.

I suggest people analyze the situation in a value-free manner. If you involve your emotions, you’re unlikely to arrive at the most rational conclusions. ISIS is not a friend, but rest assured its members see themselves as good and just people who are fighting evil.

L: It occurs to me that ISIS may be more useful to the powers that be, beheading journalists on YouTube—a great distraction from the woes affecting people’s daily lives in the West.

Doug: Exactly. The worse the economy gets, the more governments look for someone else to blame or some danger somewhere that makes for a good distraction. There needs to be a dog to wag.
I suspect that there are a lot of neocons out there who wish they’d left Saddam alone, rather than whacking the hornet’s nest. Now that the cat is out of the bag, to mix metaphors, I think the phenomenon is really going to spread. And most neocons will learn absolutely nothing from it, since their views aren’t influenced by facts but set by a psychological aberration.

L: So the Forever War intensifies in 2015?

Doug: Yes. I think it’s inevitable. For a bunch of reasons.

L: Speaking of economic woes that people need to be distracted from, have you seen that there’s a national movement building steam in the US, advocating a $15 per hour minimum wage?

Doug: Yes. What these people don’t realize or want to face is that rote labor is not worth $15 per hour, and the only thing they will succeed in achieving is their own unemployment—and unemployability. This movement will only encourage companies like Amazon—which uses thousands and thousands of robots to do work people once did—to automate even more.

So maybe it’s a good thing; it will spur innovation and progress. It might even cost us less for those who lack value-adding skills to go on welfare than for business to be forced to pay them to do work machines can do better and faster. Let me hasten to add that welfare in all its aspects should be abolished. But that’s not going to happen until the present system actually collapses. Which, incidentally, will happen. Nothing overcomes the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

L: Perhaps it’s a form of poetic justice. People see that the government prints all the money it wants to bail out its friends on Wall Street—and itself—why not just print more for them directly? If governments can print, borrow, and spend an economy into prosperity, why indeed can’t societies print money for all to spend as they please? We can all be Zimbabwe—rejoice!

Doug: Looking at this from a historical point of view, you realize that 100 years ago, there were only five central banks in the world. Now every country in the world has a central bank, and they’re all doing exactly the same thing: creating currency units out of thin air as fast as they think they can get away with.

More broadly, a century ago, governments were very limited in their power to regulate the day-to-day lives of citizens. They were actually quite weak. The whole world has transformed tremendously since then, starting with the mega-disaster of World War I, and governments now have unprecedented power over people’s lives—made possible not only by laws, but by the power of central banks… and by the fact the average person has been programmed to believe that’s the way it ought to be.

The good news, I think, is that this situation has already crossed the point of no return; it’s unsustainable. It must and will fall apart. There’s going to be a gigantic reset within the next decade. Within 10 years, I’m sure we’re going to see something that’s going to be not just the biggest thing since World War II, but the biggest thing since the Industrial Revolution. I remain an optimist for the future, but the next big historical turning point is coming, and it’s going to be very unpleasant for most people.

L: That brings to mind how bad things have gotten already, with waves of protest wracking the US over excessive use of force by the police. I don’t know if Obama’s idea of putting cameras on cops will really help—does anyone really trust the watchers to watch themselves?

Doug: It’s all related. Look, rather than discuss the details of the day, I think that at heart, we should remember that cops are people, albeit people who generally have an extra Y chromosome and are loyal first to other cops. Their actions should not only be judged and responded to in the same way we would for any other people, but more severely. If, for example, a citizen kills someone, there’s a grand jury convened and a trial. The same should be the case for cops—every time and in all cases. In fact, cops should not be scrutinized less for the sake of expedience, but more—for the sakes of justice and freedom.

I think it’s unconscionable that cops have gotten away with shakedowns, murder, and other crimes for so long because of the mistaken belief—both theirs and among people in general—that the rules must be different for them. I’m not a fan of today’s cops in general; they’re no longer peace officers concerned with protecting the people, but law enforcement officers concerned with protecting themselves and strong-arming the people as directed by their masters. Maybe people are finally getting fed up. I don’t know how this will end, but it’s hard to see much change before things get worse—something like they were in the movie V for Vendetta.

L: So, pulling back to look at the big picture and looking ahead to 2015, it seems to me that there is something deeply and disturbingly wrong with the global picture. Everyone desperately focuses on whatever good news they can even as the bad news continues unabated. China, which now has the world’s largest economy, is failing to hit even its reduced GDP growth targets, and the EU has fallen and can’t get up. But no one wants to admit that the emperor has no clothes—it’s time to go holiday shopping.

Doug: Good point about China. I see an economic collapse as an almost sure thing for them; the collapse of iron ore prices in 2014 is clear evidence of this, with so much of global iron production having been gobbled up by China until recently. Their banks are broke, which will be a huge problem for the average Chinese worker, who still saves 25%-30% of his or her income. If those people can’t get their money out of their banks or if the money they get is worthless, there won’t just be riots and civil unrest, there will be a revolution.

Japan is destroying the yen and will wipe out the savings of the Japanese people. Europe is a socialist basket case at this point. And I have to say: the US isn’t far behind. Next year and 2016 are really going to be something to behold.

L: Grim. So… how to invest?

Doug: I have no desire to be in the mainstream stock market for the duration. Even less to be in the bond market—the bubble there has gotten bigger and bigger over the last few years, to the point that it has reached a truly unholy size. Real estate is holding on, but it’s floating on a sea of debt, so when the bond bubble breaks, real estate—certainly in the Anglo-Saxon world—is in for big trouble. (And real estate is the most obvious thing for cash-strapped local governments to tax, as things turn down.) So, as we’ve said before, I really don’t see any way out of this thing, other than through the wringer we’re now caught in. However long they last, I do think we’re in the last moments of calm before the storm breaks.

L: I see it as maybe a last chance to back up the truck on the best speculative picks in various sectors poised to surge whenever the storm does break. I don’t know when the balloon pops, but it’s growing and growing in a room full of pins, and our readers will want to be prepared when it blows. The best way I can think of is to subscribe to our various publications, both for strategic guidance and for potentially life-changing—or saving—stock picks.

Fortunately for those late to the game or who wish to diversify into new sectors, we're opening up subscription to our most exclusive and comprehensive service, Casey’s Club, through February 20. I do encourage everyone reading this conversation to take advantage of this opportunity, and prepare for what’s coming—perhaps faster than anyone imagines.

Doug: Yes. It will affect us all, everywhere, but I’m happy to be down here in the peaceful and productive wine country of Cafayate, Argentina.

L: I look forward to my next visit—and hope you’ll visit me soon here in Puerto Rico.

Doug: I’ll be interested to see what the actual change in your taxes turns out to be, net of all your costs.

L: Me too. Well, thanks for another very thought-provoking, if not exactly cheerful conversation. I don’t think I need to ask you to spell out the details of what to do as a result of your projections; it’s all here in these pages and in the International Speculator, of course.

Doug: Just so. Until next time, keep some powder dry; I think you’re going to see some spectacular buying opportunities, and I think those who stick with the program are going to achieve fantastic returns.

L: Hear, hear!



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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

The Next Bakken?

Just a few days ago, a hastily assembled team including Chief Energy Investment Strategist Marin Katusa and Casey Research Managing Director David Galland were preparing to fly to a secret location. A location where a small oil company is about to drill the first oil well into what appears to be a massive new oil bonanza.

But at the last minute, the oil company's lawyers canceled the trip and imposed a total communication blackout. They did so out of concern that regulators would think having the Casey Research team on site gave Casey Energy Report subscribers an unfair advantage.

While disappointed that the site visit was canceled, the Casey energy team has already extensively researched the company and are now free to tell their subscribers about it.

And that's why I'm writing to you today: the Casey energy analysts believe this company may have as much or even more potential than those companies that made billions in the now legendary Bakken formation.

To put that assertion into perspective, let me tell you a little bit about the Bakken. In case you're unfamiliar with it, it's a monster oil and gas deposit covering almost 15,000 square miles across North Dakota, Montana, and Alberta, Canada.

The latest US Geological Survey estimates that the Bakken contains upwards of 7.4 billion barrels of recoverable oil - and that is considered on the low end of the range. An executive of a company deeply involved in the Bakken recently estimated that the basin will ultimately yield 20 billion barrels.

And those who discovered the Bakken's tremendous potential ahead of the crowd are now very well off indeed....When It Rains, It Pours... Cash

Until 2005, the Bakken had been largely written off as uneconomic. Then leapfrogging advances in horizontal drilling technologies changed everything, triggering a land rush that made multimillionaires out of landowners and explorers.

Take Harold Hamm, for example. The founder and CEO of Continental Resources (CRL), Hamm, as Forbes magazine puts it, "is responsible for cracking the code of the Bakken."

In 2007, the same year that Continental was listed on the NYSE, the company was the first to complete lateral, multi-stage drilling over 1,280 acres in North Dakota.

One year later, Hamm was the first to demonstrate that the Three Forks formation, which was initially believed to be part of the Bakken, was a separate reservoir and might hold more oil than the Bakken itself.

The rest, as they say, is history. Hamm is now worth $11.3 billion, which makes him the 90th richest person on the planet.

But it's not just the wildcatters themselves that rake in the big money: Early bird investors in Continental Resources made gains of up to 459% within 14 months after the company's NYSE listing. And those who held on were looking at gains of 549% when CRL's stock peaked in February 2012.

In other words, had you trusted in Hamm's genius when he started out drilling in the Bakken, an investment of just $10,000 would have turned into $64,900 for you.

There's no question about it: The use of new technologies to unlock the Bakken, the Eagle Ford Shale, and other huge oil deposits previously considered uneconomic has been a game changer for North American energy supplies.

And you could be the beneficiary of the next Bakken-type windfall....The Next Bakken - But Even Better?

As I said before, the Casey energy analysts believe that the small company they've uncovered could be the next Continental Resources, sitting on unimaginable riches.

Over the last year this little company has quietly assembled a 2-million-acre concession in a region whose geological conditions for the production of oil and gas are actually far more promising than those in the Bakken.

And about one week from now, these resources could finally be proven to be in place. You can imagine what that could do to the company's share price.

The company's top executives appear to have a similar vision: Many of them have personally invested millions of dollars to fund the company and its current drill program.

In July, one director of the company, who is also the CEO of a major Canadian oil player, bought 200,000 shares at the market – bringing his holdings of the company's stock to a total of 1,235,237 shares.

I think his optimism is well placed, considering that the company's management includes seasoned Bakken veterans who not only recognize the potential of the "new Bakken," but also have the skills to get the oil out of the ground.

If the initial well now being drilled meets management's expectations, this small-cap company will be on the fast track for explosive shareholder returns, potentially for years on end. Be There When the Truth Is Unveiled - for a Chance at Staggering Returns

Best of all, so far only a handful of research firms have been paying attention to this virtually unknown company. Therefore, we are uniquely positioned to take advantage of the news released once the well data have been compiled.

In fact, within minutes of the company breaking the silence imposed by its lawyers, Casey’s analysts will be standing by to share their on the spot analysis with subscribers to the Casey Energy Report....even if it's the middle of the night.

To be fair, though, I have to remind you that this is a speculation, not a slam dunk investment. Drilling is always a risky business, so we have to keep our enthusiasm in check until the first well is completed and the initial flow data are logged.

If, however, the initial well test confirms that the company is sitting on the "next Bakken," the investment returns from its 2 million acre concession should be nothing less than spectacular. And the odds for that happening are excellent. Be Ready: Initial Drilling Results Are Expected on or Around Monday, September 16

Until the company has completed its flow tests and made a public announcement, Casey can't share any details about the company, or even the country where the next potential Bakken is located.

But once the company issues its own press release, everyone who is an active subscriber to the Casey Energy Report will receive our alert with an up-to-the-minute analysis and specific recommendation on how to invest.

In addition, to ensure that Energy Report readers get the full picture of this exciting new play, the Casey Energy team is now preparing a comprehensive report about the "next Bakken" and the small-cap company already supremely positioned to profit from it.

While no one can say exactly when the drill will reach the pay zone and the subsequent well flow test will be completed, the last estimate provided by the company before the lawyers instituted the communications blackout was mid September.

Based on Casey’s own analysis of the processes involved, they anticipate the company will be ready to release news on or about Monday, September 16. Of course, due to the nature of any drill program, this is only an estimate.

Regardless, once the testing is completed and the company issues its public press release, Casey Energy Report subscribers will immediately receive an Alert with our analysis - and their special report on the next Bakken.

Of course, it would be massively unfair (and poor business ethics) to release this information to non paying subscribers.

Not to worry, though. If you subscribe today, you can still participate in the earliest phase of what could become a flood of investment into the "next Bakken." Make a Bundle or Pay Nothing for Your Subscription

How much does it cost to get in on what could be the next Bakken? Thousands of subscribers to the Casey Energy Report pay $248 per quarter, an amount that may seem high to some.

However, that they were prepared to send an executive team to the secret well site - involving international flights and almost 11 hours in a car - should make it clear just how much potential we believe this investment has for our subscribers. If they're right, the potential returns will make the cost of your subscription pale by comparison.

But what if they're wrong, and the first well is a bust? What then?

It's simple: thanks to Casey’s 3-month, no-questions-asked, 100% money-back guarantee, if you don't make a bundle off this exciting new play within the first three months of your subscription, simply drop them an email and they'll promptly return every penny you paid.

It's a completely straightforward proposition that works entirely in your favor.

Of course, they're pretty confident you won't cancel your subscription.

Because they believe that they are about to make a lot of money on this stock, and that it will continue to provide exceptional returns for years (or until it is taken over by a larger company hungry for the 2-million-acre concession it has assembled on the next Bakken – and if that happens, it'll be just as good for us).

In a May 2010 interview broadcast on Business News Network, Chief Investment Strategist Marin Katusa spoke about Africa Oil, another early Casey energy pick. In that interview, he said, "This stock has a realistic potential to give you 10 to 15, even 20, times your money."

He was right: Africa Oil handed early investors a profit of over 1,200%.

In a recent email, Marin wrote, "Since that interview on Africa Oil, I have never made a similar forecast about a company, but I have no reservations saying that this new company easily has as much or more potential."

You do not want to miss out on this opportunity.

Getting in on the ground floor is as simple and easy as clicking here to sign up for the Casey Energy Report now.

Remember, Casey’s ironclad 100% money back guarantee means you've got nothing to lose to give the Casey Energy Report a try. With the drill turning and their energy team hard at work preparing its comprehensive report on the "next Bakken," now is definitely the time to act.

Sincerely,

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

P.S. It's important to highlight that members of the Casey Research team own shares in investment funds that have invested capital in this firm back from the time it was just an idea. That the company appears to have made good use of its capital to build its position on this potentially huge new oil play is all to the good and the only reason we are bringing this stock to the attention of our readers. To avoid a conflict of interest, Casey’s corporate policies (correctly) require them to provide advance notice to subscribers before they sell, which we don't see happening until the company has unlocked its full potential and its shares are trading at many multiples of where they are now.

If you, too, want to join in on this early stage play, be sure to sign up today - or at the latest before Monday, September 16. And don't forget: you either make a bundle or you simply cancel within 3 months for your money back. Even after three months, you can still cancel anytime and receive a prorated refund.

Don't miss this rare opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

Here again is the secure link to join Casey Energy Report.




Friday, August 9, 2013

A Monetary Master Explains Inflation

By Terry Coxon, Senior Economist

One of the best things about being a partner in a research firm employing about 40 analysts is that I have unfettered access to really smart people. While we have a great team with expertise across the spectrum, when it comes to monetary matters, my go to guy is Terry Coxon, a senior editor for our flagship publication, The Casey Report.


Terry cut his teeth working side by side for years with the late Harry Browne, the economist and prolific author of a number of groundbreaking books, including the 1970 classic, How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation. The timing of Harry's book should catch your eye, because his analysis that the dollar was headed for a big fall was spot on. Anyone paying attention made a lot of money.

As coeditors of Harry Browne's Special Reports, Terry and Harry made a formidable team for over 23 years. During this period, the two deeply researched the operating levers of the global economy, with a focus on the nature of money and impact of monetary policy. They also looked for ways to apply what they learned about macroeconomics into practical investment strategies, coauthoring Inflation-Proofing Your Investments. On his own, Terry wrote Keep What You Earn and Using Warrants.

Putting his expertise into action, Terry founded, and for 22 years served as the president of, the Permanent Portfolio Fund, one of the top performing funds in history.

Having Terry on the Casey Research team as a senior economist has been a huge personal boon. By the time you finish reading my brief interview with him, I suspect you'll understand why.......David Galland

David: Let's start by defining terms. What exactly is inflation? Most people view inflation as a noticeable increase in the prices of everyday things. How do you define inflation?

Terry: The original use of the term in financial matters referred to money, not to prices. It meant an increase in the total amount of money held by the public. Such a monetary inflation can be engineered by government printing or, under a gold standard, by increasing the official price of gold, as in 1933.

Monetary inflation can also be engineered by inventing a new category of legal tender, as in the case of the silver dollars minted in the 19th century. And inflation of the money supply can happen without government tinkering, such as through the discovery and development of new gold deposits (as in the cases of the California and Klondike gold rushes), or through decisions by commercial banks to operate with thinner cash reserves in order to issue more deposits.

Today "inflation" usually refers to price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of consumer prices. That second use grew out of the public's experience of episodes of monetary inflation being followed by periods of rising prices.

Notice that with either use of the word, there is a little mushiness. During some periods, depending on what you include as "money," you may find either an increase or a decrease in the supply of the stuff. Suppose that the supply of hand-to-hand currency goes up while the quantity of bank deposits goes down by a larger amount. Is that monetary inflation or monetary deflation? And what exactly does an increase in the "general level of consumer prices" mean? There's more than one way to define an index of prices, and there are many ways to tinker with it.

David: In your view, have the US government and the Fed been following an inflationary policy?

Terry: Yes. Since the Lehman swoon in 2008, the M1 money supply (hand to hand currency plus checkable bank deposits) has increased by 72%, so the policy is clearly one of monetary inflation. And the Fed is avowedly committed to avoiding price deflation at all costs. They'll do whatever it takes to prevent price deflation, up to and including sacrificing virgins. That deflation phobia is necessarily a commitment to price inflation, and Mr. Bernanke has indicated that consumer prices rising at a rate of 2% per year would be ideal. So either way you define inflation, the Fed is all for it.

David: Based upon your studies, just how extreme or extraordinary has inflation been since the beginning of this financial crisis?

Terry: A 72% growth in the money supply over a period of five-plus years is a gigantic increase. Take a look at the chart. It shows the annual growth rate in M1 over all five year periods from 1959 to the present (dates on the chart indicate the end of a five-year period). As you can see, the only episode of monetary inflation that comes close to what is happening now is the money printing spree of the high price inflation 1970s and early 1980s.


David: How certain are you that the monetary inflation here in the US is going to ultimately manifest as price inflation?

Terry: You're asking for a lot when you say "certain", certainly more than you're going to get from me. But here's why price inflation seems inevitable. The Federal Reserve can easily create more money. There's no limit to that power, as they've already demonstrated. At any hint of deflation, they will produce more cash. They can never know how much new cash would be enough, but because they see deflation as a vastly more serious problem than price inflation, they always will err on the side of too much new money. That attitude is a guarantee of price inflation.

David: When price inflation begins, how significant do you think it will be? A little inflation? A lot? Hyperinflation?

Terry: Mr. Bernanke will get to visit his ideal world of 2% price inflation, but it will only be a whistle stop. The price inflation that lies ahead will be at least as bad as what happened in the 1970s episode, when the annual inflation rate approached 15%. The money that's already been printed so far may be enough to produce such a 1970s size problem. And more new dollars are coming, because the Fed won't stop printing until price inflation becomes obvious.

Making matters worse is that the devices for paring down the amount of cash that you need for the sake of convenience, such as credit cards, ATMs, and online banks, are now far more widely available and cheaper to use than they were in the 1970s. When price inflation becomes noticeable, people will turn more and more to those devices to reduce their holdings of value leaking cash. That drop in the demand for money will reinforce the price inflation that originated in the Federal Reserve's increase in the supply of money.

David: I know it can only be a wild guess, but based on your observations, how long do you think it will take for price inflation to become obvious?

Terry: Within twelve months after you hear that the economy has at last fully recovered from the recession.

David: What is the biggest flaw with the deflation argument?

Terry: Whatever process someone might have in mind as a driver of price deflation, no matter how powerful that process might be, the Federal Reserve has the power and the will to carpet bomb it with more new money. What the deflationists overlook is that if deflation ever seems to be winning, the Fed will simply extend the game for as many innings as it takes for inflation to win. In a fiat-money system, inflation always gets another chance.

David: What would make you change your view that price inflation is inevitable?

Terry: Brain surgery.

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