Crude Oil Posts Another Three Week Low as Bears Gain Momentum

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31. First support is today's low crossing at 71.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday ending a two day correction off this week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1236.30. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with this week's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59. First support is today's low crossing at 84.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

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Crude Oil Declines on Rising U.S. Inventories, Stronger Dollar

Oil fell in New York as traders sold contracts to lock in gains ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and after the U.S. Energy Department said crude inventories held by the world’s largest energy consumer rose. Oil also pulled back after rallying 2.6 percent yesterday, the most since Nov. 16, as the dollar retraced some of its losses against the euro. Commercially held U.S. stockpiles rose to a four week high of 337.8 million barrels in the week to Nov. 20, renewing concern over the pace of recovery in fuel demand.

“We can expect some profit taking selling after last night’s sharp gains led by gold and the euro,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at Newedge in Tokyo. “It’s possible to go as low as $76.50, that’s the level before it started rising yesterday.”

Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as 56 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $77.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $77.55 a barrel at 11:20 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose $1.94 to $77.96 a barrel. Futures have gained 74 percent this year. Floor trading in New York will be suspended today because of Thanksgiving. The exchange will close early tomorrow, while electronic trading will continue through the holiday.....Read the entire article.

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