Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Platinum, Silver, US Dollar, Coffee and More

Trading for the week of February 6th through February 10th ended with the S&P 500 closing higher. Posting a new record high as it renews the long term rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Of course that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the March contract settled last Friday at 53.83 a barrel while currently trading at 53.70 basically unchanged as I'm looking for a breakout above 54.34 for a bullish position to the upside as prices have gone nowhere over the last 2 months. Oil in Wednesday's trade hit a 9 week low creating a false breakout to the downside before rallying & finished higher on the trading session as prices have now traded up for the last 3 consecutive days so keep a close eye on this market as I still think higher prices are ahead. OPEC continues to hint that they might cut production in 2017 as they would like to see prices between $65/$75 a barrel and I think they will use their power to enhance prices as we are still trading above the 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. The chart structure will start to improve later next week as a breakout is looming in my opinion as we are just not going to trade sideways forever as the commodity markets still look bullish in my opinion. If prices do break the 54.40 level, I think we could retest the double top around $56. However, we need some fresh fundamental news to push prices higher as the dollar remains stubbornly high.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

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Platinum futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at $1,006 an ounce while currently trading at the same price as I am now recommending a bullish position from around the 1,008 level and if you take this trade place your stop loss under $988 as the chart structure is outstanding. Platinum prices are down $16 in early trade this Friday morning so take advantage of the price dip as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend remains to the upside. At present I'm also recommending bullish positions in silver and in the copper market as the precious metals, in general, continue to move higher, however, early strength from U.S dollar has put pressure on platinum, but the risk/reward is now in your favor which is what trading is all about. The next major level of resistance is yesterday’s high of $1,032 which were levels that we have not seen since the month of October and if that is broken you would have to think that the bullish trend would continue so play this to the upside while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.48 an ounce while currently trading at 17.77 up around $0.30 for the trading week continuing its nonvolatile bullish momentum as I've been recommending a bullish position over the last month with an average price around the 17 level and if you took the trade place your stop loss at 10 day low which now stands at 17.10 as that will improve on Tuesday at 17.26, therefore, lowering monetary risk. The next major level of resistance is Wednesday's high around 17.87 & if that is broken, I think prices will head to the $18 range as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is up about 1000 points this Friday afternoon as I remain bullish the entire precious metal sector. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I still think prices are going to retest the $19 level that's where silver was trading right when Trump was elected, as the commodity markets are looking strong despite the fact that the U.S dollar remains firm so continue to play this to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 99.84 while currently trading at 100.81 up about 100 points for the trading week as I've been recommending a bearish position from around the 99.85 level & if you took the trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was touched earlier in the trading session at 101.01 on a closing basis only. The dollar is trading higher for the 7th consecutive trading session with very low volatility as we are hanging in there by the skin of our teeth as I'm also recommending a bullish Euro currency as the commodity markets are higher across the board today despite the strength in the dollar. Prices are trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is higher, but I will continue to place the proper stop and if we are stopped out then look at other markets that are beginning to trend as the trends are coming back mostly to the upside.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

Coffee futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 148.70 a pound while currently trading at 147.90 basically unchanged for the week as I was recommending a bullish position last week getting stopped out taking the loss and moving on as the chart structure was excellent at the time. However, prices continue to drift lower. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average which stands around 152 as I am still bullish coffee prices over the longer term, but when prices hit a 2 week low its time to move on & look at other trends that are beginning. At the current time, coffee is mixed to sideways. However, that doesn't mean we won't be involved relatively soon once again so keep a close eye on this market as this is a sleeping giant which is the largest commodity contract in the world as the risk is always higher in coffee than any other market. Growing conditions in the country of Brazil are currently ideal as certain dry pockets received substantial rain over the last week sending prices lower as its a long growing season and things can change on a dime as I remain bullish the entire commodity sector.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver & US Dollar

Trading for the week of January 30th through February 3rd ended with the market indexes closing in their higher ranges. Does that mean that we are sure the markets continue higher from here? No, but of course that means it is time for a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 53.17 a barrel while currently trading at 53.60 up slightly for the trading week as prices have been stuck in a $2 range for the last 3 trading weeks as I've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the trend to develop which I think might be to the upside. Oil prices are right at their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average as the chart structure is excellent at the current time as the United States released the monthly unemployment report which stated 227,000 new jobs were added which is a bullish indicator towards crude oil as there could be more demand with more people employed. The U.S dollar is still hovering around 100 which is still a longer term bearish fundamental indicator, but it seems to me that many of the commodities have already reflected that in their price so keep a close eye on this market to the upside as a 4 week high could be at hand next week. OPEC is hinting that they could possibly cut production once again in 2017 as it seems to me that they want prices back up into the $65/$75 level as that will take time, but I do think with growth coming back into the United States that is bullish stocks and commodities longer term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Natural gas futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 3.35 while currently trading at 3.06 down about 30 points for the trading week as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as it has remained choppy over the last several months. If you take a look at the daily chart there is a price gap which occurred on November 18th between 3.02/3.06 and I do think that will be filled with the possibility of retesting the contract low around 2.80, but at that level, you have to start thinking prices are getting cheap. Warmer weather in the Midwestern part of the United States is the main culprit for lower prices as the city of Chicago did not receive any snow in the month of January which is remarkable in my opinion coupled with above average temperatures, therefore, increasing supplies. Natural gas prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower. However, I'm advising clients to avoid this market at present and look at other markets that are beginning to trend with a better risk/reward scenario.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,191 an ounce while currently trading at 1,213 up over $20 for the trading week right near a 10 week high as I've been sitting on the sidelines in this commodity recommending bullish positions in silver and copper. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 day but below their 100 day moving average as the trend is mixed to higher in my opinion as the U.S dollar is still hovering right around the 100 level as I'm also recommending a short position in that currency at present. The monthly unemployment number was released this morning adding about 227,000 new jobs having very little impact on gold prices in today's trade. The next major level of resistance is yesterday's high around 1,227 and if that is broken, I think we could go back to around the 1,300 level right where we were before the Trump election as there is still room to run to the upside. I want to wait for better chart structure as the 10 day low is too far away at present coupled with the fact that I am already recommending two other precious metals as they all follow one another up or down, so you don't want to be too top-heavy.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.14 an ounce while currently trading at 17.50 up about $0.35 for the trading week as I have been recommending a bullish position originally from around 16.76 and now have added on 2 separate occasions as I remain bullish the precious metals and especially silver prices. If you took the original trade continue to place your stop loss under the 10 day low which stands at 16.63 as the chart structure is not very solid at present due to the run up in prices, however, it will improve but it will take 4 more trading sessions. Silver prices are now trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as I'm also recommending a bullish position in copper which is down 500 points today & has been stuck in the mud over the last 3 weeks. At the current time I'm also recommending a bearish U.S dollar position and if that trade works out, you would have to think that would benefit silver prices as I still think historically speaking silver is very cheap and still has exceptional demand.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving - Poor

The U.S dollar in the March contract settled last Friday at 100.52 while currently trading at 99.85 down about 75 points for the trading week as I am now recommending a bearish position from around 99.85 & if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 101.01 risking around $1,200 per contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure will not improve for another 6 days, so you're going to have to accept the monetary risk as prices are still trading below their 20 day but right at their 100 day moving average right near major support in my opinion. The United States released its monthly unemployment number adding 227,000 new jobs having very little impact on the currency market this afternoon as prices are still right near a 6 week low, so I will continue to place the proper stop loss while risking 2% of the account balance on any given trade. Volatility in the dollar is relatively high as we are having large price swings on a daily basis so make sure place the proper amount of contracts, therefore, managing risk properly.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Commodities Market Summary for Week Ending April 18th - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and more!

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery of Seery Futures to give our readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold futures in the June contract are trading below their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is mixed as prices are still trading near two year lows and if this commodity could talk it would bark in my opinion as it is becoming a tremendous dog in recent months trading lower by $40 in Tuesday’s trade settling last Friday at 1,319 and going out this Thursday afternoon at 1,295 finishing down about $25 for the trading week. If prices break 1,277 I would be recommending a short position putting your stop above the 10 day high with the possibility of prices heading towards major support at 1,240 and then maybe the possibility of lower prices as it seems that nothing can make gold prices go up not even the fact of the Ukrainian crisis & the recent stock market choppiness as demand for gold at this current time is very weak with very little interest as well. Markets go up due to the fact that money flows come into that commodity and all the money flow is going into stocks at the current time as complacency has set in as nobody seems to care about gold or see any reason to own it at this time, however in my opinion I do believe worldwide problems will come back and I do think losses in gold are limited so I would look for a better trending market & sit on the sidelines unless 1,277 is broken on a closing basis.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Silver futures in the July contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned bearish as prices are settling right near three month lows going out last Friday at 19.80 finishing this shortened holiday week at 19.60 finishing lower by about $.20 while at the current time there’s just very little interest in the silver market which is very surprising. There is major support at $19 which has been tested many times in the last 6 months but fails every single time and if you read any of my previous blogs I keep stating if you have deep pockets and a longer term horizon I do think silver prices are cheap, however if you are a trader that becomes a different situation as the trend now has turned lower and if you’re looking to get short this market I would sell at today’s price of 19.60 placing my stop loss above the 10 day high of 20.40 risking around $800 per contract as volatility in silver is extremely low at this time and I don’t expect that to last much longer as silver historically is one the most volatile commodities.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Crude oil futures are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average hitting new 1 year highs trading up over $1.00 for the trading week trading at 103.35 a barrel in the June contract as the chart looks bullish in my opinion when prices broke 102 a barrel which was the breakout to the upside placing my stop below the 10 day low which now is 100 risking around 300 points or $1,600 per contract if your trading the crude oil mini. The chart structure in crude oil is starting to improve as we enter the strong demand season as crude oil & unleaded gasoline as both headed higher in my opinion, however make sure that you do have a proper risk management system in place minimizing your risk in case the trend does change. Generally speaking when the stock market sells off that generally puts pressure on crude oil prices however this market has been resilient lately because of the Ukrainian situation and the fact that we are entering the strong demand season of summer where drivers are out on the road increasing demand.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

Coffee futures have had a wild trading week dropping 2000 points on Tuesday and Wednesday combined only to rally 1500 points this Thursday afternoon finishing at 201.20 a pound and I’m still recommending if you have deep pockets to get long the coffee market as there is a high probability in my opinion that prices could get up to 2.50 – 2.70 as coffee prices have been much higher historically & with severe drought conditions existing in central Brazil I don’t think the bull market is quite over. Harvest is just several weeks away in central Brazil so we will start to get a better figure on how many bags will be produced as prices are trading far above their 20 & 100 day moving average as this is been one of the best bull markets of 2014 so continue to buy dips in my opinion as long as prices stay above 166.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL

Sugar futures finished down 26 points at 16.66 in the May contract as prices are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average still consolidating in recent weeks with really no trend in sight so I’m advising traders to sit on the sidelines and look at another market that is currently trading, however there is major support at 16.50 & if that level is broken the bearish trend will be intact ,however this market is choppy at the given time. Many of the commodity markets are in strong trends however sugar has been choppy so avoid this market at this time and look for another commodity that is trending because choppiness makes it difficult to make money
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Soybean futures in the July contract rallied another $.50 to close around 15.02 a bushel settling right near session highs and if you’ve been reading my previous blogs I am extremely bullish the old crop soybeans due to the fact that there’s very little supply on hand and I do think there’s a high probability that soybean prices will hit all-time highs in the next month or 2 due to the fact that the carryover level is extremely low and demand especially from China is extremely high. I’m a technical trader but I do look at some of the fundamentals once in a while but this market is trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average and I hope you been listening because I do think prices will move higher despite the fact that we have now rallied sharply in recent days as I think it’s just the beginning and with a short weekend because of the Good Friday holiday I think the shorts are in trouble next week as we will see sharply higher prices once again and if you need some help positioning your portfolio in the soybeans please feel free to give me a call anytime as I’m happy to help you as I do think this trend is getting stronger and stronger on a daily basis and a top has not been formed in my opinion.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Cotton futures for the July contract are trading right at its 20 but above its 100 day moving average settling last Friday at 90.45 while going out on this short trading week due to the fact of Easter Sunday closing today at 92.34 up around 190 points for the trading week as prices have been consolidating in recent weeks with very little trend at the current time. I’m not recommending any type of position in cotton as the trend has been going sideways and as a commodity trader I need to find the strongest trends and go in that direction so just keep an eye on cotton prices at the current time as I do think higher prices are ahead but the problem is China could be releasing some of the excess reserves putting pressure here in the short term so this is a mixed bag in my opinion so look for another market
TREND: SIDEWAYS
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Orange juice futures in the May contract settled at 164.75 as dry conditions in Brazil continue to put upward pressure on prices and I’ve been recommending buying orange juice futures contracts for quite some time and I do believe prices are headed up to the 180 – 200 level as greening disease here in the United States is going to lower U.S production as this problem could exist for several more years as the chart structure on the daily chart remains outstanding so if you have not entered this market look for a possible dip to get long while placing your stop at the 10 day low which is around 153 risking around $1,700 per contract from today’s price. The trend in orange juice has been higher for the last 6 months as this has been one of the strongest trends in my opinion so keep an eye on this as a gallon of orange juice at the grocery store currently cost around $6.25 a gallon which is very high but could go much higher as I’ve been talking about in recent weeks.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Corn futures finished down for the 2nd straight trading session near session lows this Thursday afternoon finishing down over $.04 in the December contract for the trading week which is considered the new crop which will be harvested this October closing at 4.97 a bushel hitting a 2 week low & if you have been following my recommendations over the last several months I have been long the corn market but on Wednesday I exited as I have become neutral as I think corn prices are going lower but I’m not recommending a short position but rather sit on the sidelines and wait for a better chart pattern to develop. I have been bullish corn prices for so long however this market may have had an exhaustion spike top at 5.17 after the supply demand report as prices look weak as I do think farmers will start to plant rapidly which should put pressure here in the short term but I do not believe that a bear market has started and I do think that prices could head back down to the 4.80 level as the month of April and early May generally are bearish corn prices due to the fact that there really won’t be any weather problems developing until the month of June or July.

Corn futures are trading right after 20 day moving average and still above their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend now is mixed so look for a better trending market such as July soybeans because as a trader the easiest way to make money is getting involved in a market that is trending higher by 4 out of 5 days or trending lower 4 out of 5 days while this market currently is becoming choppy so avoid and move on especially if you took my original recommendation at 4.60 bushel as this was a very good trade it just took a long time to develop.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

The 5 year notes finished lower for the 4th straight trading session this week as the stock market sky rocketed to the upside sending bond yields higher with the five-year note to close around 1.73% & I’ve been recommending a short position in the bond market for months and I still think it will be one of the best trades to develop over the course of time as inflation looks like it’s starting to come back as the commodity markets certainly have rallied sharply off their lows and we might be in a bullish commodity cycle at this time which will put pressure on bond futures which means the interest rates rise.

If you’re a long term investor I would continue to sell the five year notes as the Federal Reserve is starting to taper back the purchase of the five year note and that is also can put pressure on this market, however prices have rallied in the recent months due to the fact that volatility is come back into the S&P and I might have been a tad early but this but this a very long term trade which I’m telling investors to stay in for several years as this should be part of a balanced portfolio because you will look back in a couple years and say why didn’t I take advantage of interest rates at 1.73% and not act accordingly because when prices get to extreme highs and the extreme lows sometimes those are the best opportunities and right now yields are not at historical lows but they are very close and eventually in my opinion will rally and if you construct your proposal correctly limiting your risk and maximizing your reward over the course of time the bond market in my opinion is the place to be in the year 2014. The five-year note is trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average which tells you that the short term trend is lower and I constantly recommend investors in the five-year note to sell strength not weakness taking advantage of up days.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Cocoa futures in New York rallied 46 points at 3020 in the July contract and currently I am sitting on the sidelines in this market but if prices do break 3047 which was the contract high I would be recommending to buy a futures contract placing a stop below the 10 day low 2962 risking around 1,600 per contract as the chart structure remains outstanding so be patient for a possible breakout in tomorrow’s trading session as the soft commodities certainly have bullish trends. Cocoa prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average and I still think higher prices are ahead but this market has been choppy with a very tight consolidation over the last 3 months so if prices do break out look for a sharp move to the upside. My theory states that the longer a consolidation the stronger the breakout so keep a close eye on this market. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Live cattle futures in the June contract are trading below their 20 day but above their 100 day moving average stating that the trend is mixed however in the short term the trend has turned bearish as prices have hit 7 weeks lows finishing at 134.35 a pound down about 200 points for the trading week. If you are looking to get short this market I would sell at today’s prices while placing my stop loss at the 10 day high of 136.35 risking around $800 dollars per contract but at the present time I am sitting on the sidelines.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Feeder cattle futures in the May contract are trading below their 20 day but still above its 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed finishing lower by about 200 points at 178.10 a pound. I have been recommending a long position in feeder cattle for many weeks however this market looks to have stalled up at the 180 area and if you took my advice on this trade place your stop loss at the 10 day low of 177.50 risking around $300 per contract as the chart structure has become extremely tight in recent weeks as volatility remains low despite record high prices. I would not be going short this market until prices broke 176 to the downside placing my stop above all time high prices of 180.50 risking around 2,200 if that breakout occurs.
TREND: SIDEWAYS
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Natural gas futures in the June contract finished up 18 points hitting a 6 week high closing at 4.74 with outstanding chart structure as I am now recommending a long position in this contract placing my stop loss below the 10 day low which stands at 4.44 risking around 30 points or $750 per contract as the trend has now turned higher once again and the risk reward situation is highly in your favor as we enter the demand season of summer. Natural gas prices have been in a bull market for quite some time and if you read some of my previous blogs several months back when prices were in the low $3 I was recommending if you have deep pockets and a longer term horizon to buy natural gas as prices were extremely cheap due to the fact of large supplies, however we had an extremely cold winter which reduced supplies dramatically and I do think natural gas prices will be sharply higher from today’s level in the next year as prices have bottomed out in my opinion. As a trader I focus on today and tomorrow only so when I can buy the natural gas contract with a risk of $600 I automatically take that trade even if I don’t believe in it as I do think a true breakout has occurred. Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average for the 1st time in several weeks telling you that the trend has changed to the upside after we consolidated in the month March after the big run up in early winter as prices seem to be resuming back up to the upside so play this market to the upside in my opinion.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: OUTSTANDING

Lean hog futures for the June contract finished this Friday in Chicago up about 100 points to close at 125.00 a pound finishing higher by nearly 500 points for the trading week. If you have been following any my previous blogs this was one of the best trades I recommended in 2014 as prices skyrocketed in the month of March, however at the current time volatility is extremely high so I’m not participating in the hog market as I’m not sure where prices are headed at the current time. Hog futures in the June contract are trading barely above its 20 day but sharply higher than its 100 day moving average with a shortage of supplies as the fundamentals are very strong in this market; however I’m looking at other markets that currently have stronger trends as I’m not sure where prices are headed.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL

Double Bottom and Double Tops: This indicator is one of my favorite patterns that signals a trend reversal because its considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used by many technicians. These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend is about to reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. This pattern is often used to signal intermediate and long term trend reversals. Their also can be triple bottoms and triple tops which are in my opinion an excellent indicator that predicts bottoms and tops at a relatively high rate and if you look at some of the daily charts you will see some double and triple tops and bottoms. If you are using any indicator such as these make sure you place a stop loss to try and minimize your monetary loss because indicators do not work a 100 % percent of the time so you still need solid money management technique to cut loses.

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it is so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow and grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market and allowing you to place a stop loss with will be relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk. Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure but markets that continue to trend like the current soybean complex allowing for you to place close stops as it continues to fall dramatically. I always like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loses.


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