Crude Oil and Gold Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning Sept. 27th

Crude oil was higher due to short covering in Monday evenings overnight session as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a double bottom with August's low might have been posted with Monday's low.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If November extends last week's decline, August's low crossing at 76.61 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.83. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.68. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.61. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 79.64.

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Gold was sharply higher due to short covering in Monday evenings overnight session trading as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If December extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1476.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1794.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1746.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1794.30. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1535.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1476.20. Golds pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1598.70.

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Adam Hewison: All Eyes Continue To Focus On Europe

Here we are on the first day of the last week of September, with the end of Q3 approaching on Friday. Are the equity markets building a base to go higher? Or is this just a pause before we start heading back down?

All eyes continue to be focused on the European problem, especially Greece. We still believe Greece will default on their debt. And we still think that the politicians are looking for an easy way out of this economic malaise, unwilling to accept the consequences of their actions.

Last week we saw all the markets under pressure. For the last couple of days we’ve seen some minor support coming to the equity markets. And just today we have seen support come into the metals markets at much lower levels than most folks anticipated.

The November contract for crude oil appears to be finding support at the $78 a barrel level. While it is too early to say that this market has made a bottom, the action indicates that the momentum for the moment has stopped going down.

All of our Trade Triangles remain negative, with resistance coming out just around the $81.80 level basis November. As you may recall we are tying the crude oil market with the equity markets. As the equity markets go, so does crude oil at the moment. Short, Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If November extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at 76.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.96 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.65. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.96. First support is today's low crossing at 77.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.61.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90


Has gold found support? Read "Gold & Silver Pullback as Forecasted ..... Now for the Big Opportunity"

Bottoming U.S. Dollar Threatens Crude Oil Rally

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.48 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 84.83 is the next upside target.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.39

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.00
Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 84.83

First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.97
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.48

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Natural gas was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Monday's close below the reaction low crossing at 5.280 confirms that a short term top has been posted.

If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at 4.970 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.581 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 5.473
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.581

First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.173
Second support is the 62% retracement level at 4.970

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The U.S. Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.16
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.85

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.65
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.08