Jeff Rubin, Oil Rally Predictor, Sees $100 Crude in 2010

Jeff Rubin, the former CIBC World Markets Inc. chief economist who accurately predicted oil’s surge during the last decade, expects crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter and $100 by the year’s end. Accelerating demand in Asia and the Middle East will force consumers to rely on costlier non-conventional energy sources such as oil sands, said Rubin, who spent 20 years with the Toronto based bank and last year published a book on energy economics, “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” Rubin correctly forecast in 2007 that crude would reach $100.

“It’s safe to say that we’ll see triple digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year,” Rubin, 55, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “I would expect prices to move pretty close to that level, and be in the $90 range probably by the end of March.” Crude oil futures rose as high as $83.52 a barrel yesterday, surpassing last year’s peak of $82, after the U.S. Energy Department reported a decline in inventories of distillate fuels like heating oil. In 2008, oil reached an all time high of $147.27. It last traded at $82.40 as of 12:05 p.m. London time. The increase in oil consumption will be driven by emerging economies such as China and India rather than the industrialized nations of western Europe and the U.S., where demand has probably already peaked, according to Rubin.....Read the entire article.

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week ending November 20, 177 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 80.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.0 million barrels per day last week, up 371 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.4 million barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 928 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 234 thousand barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 337.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and are slightly above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week.

Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels, and are above the
upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.

Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range.

Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.8 million barrels per day during the week ending November 13, 31 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 79 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate
fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day last week, down 77 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.

Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, 1.5 million barrels per day below the same four week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 584 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 152 thousand barrels per day last week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 336.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are slightly above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels, and are above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year.....Read the entire report.

Oil Falls for Sixth Day on Forecasts U.S. Gasoline Supply Rose

Crude oil fell for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since December, before a government report that is forecast to show U.S. fuel inventories increased. Supplies of gasoline and distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably climbed, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Yesterday, the industry funded American Petroleum Institute said stockpiles of gasoline rose.....Complete Story

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