Jeff Rubin, the former CIBC World Markets Inc. chief economist who accurately predicted oil’s surge during the last decade, expects crude to reach $90 a barrel this quarter and $100 by the year’s end. Accelerating demand in Asia and the Middle East will force consumers to rely on costlier non-conventional energy sources such as oil sands, said Rubin, who spent 20 years with the Toronto based bank and last year published a book on energy economics, “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.” Rubin correctly forecast in 2007 that crude would reach $100.
“It’s safe to say that we’ll see triple digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year,” Rubin, 55, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “I would expect prices to move pretty close to that level, and be in the $90 range probably by the end of March.” Crude oil futures rose as high as $83.52 a barrel yesterday, surpassing last year’s peak of $82, after the U.S. Energy Department reported a decline in inventories of distillate fuels like heating oil. In 2008, oil reached an all time high of $147.27. It last traded at $82.40 as of 12:05 p.m. London time. The increase in oil consumption will be driven by emerging economies such as China and India rather than the industrialized nations of western Europe and the U.S., where demand has probably already peaked, according to Rubin.....Read the entire article.
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