Low Range Crude Oil Close Sets The Stage For Lower Open on Tuesday

Crude oil closed lower on Monday due to profit taking as milder weather is expected to move across much of the US this week. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.04 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If February extends this winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.95
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.63

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Natural gas closed sharply lower on bearish weather forecast for the U.S. on Monday. Today's close below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.703 confirms that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.703
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.765

First support is today's low crossing at 5.371
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday confirming last Friday's key reversal down. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 78.44 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.89

First support is today's low crossing at 76.95
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November- December rally crossing at 76.66



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