Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil edges higher to 83.67 earlier today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 81.72 minor support holds. Current rise from 68.59 is still expected to continue to upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level. On the downside, break of 81.72 will argue that a short term top might be formed with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and deeper pull back could be seen before another rise.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas's consolidation continues and with a short term top in place at 6.108, deeper retreat could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.108 at 5.363 first. On the upside, while some recovery might be seen, break of 6.108 high is needed to confirm that medium term rise has resumed. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations with risk for another fall.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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