Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Demand Concerns, Stronger Dollar Push Oil Sharply Lower


Crude oil was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 77.41. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 75.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.52 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 78.00

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.52

First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.07
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 75.85

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of USO

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.723 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 5.606

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.675
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.723

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UNG

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.78

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UUP

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