Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 81.98 minor resistance intact, crude oil's correction from 83.95 might still extend further for 38.2% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 78.08 and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 74.46 and bring rally resumption. Above 81.98 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 83.95 will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again.
In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Natural gas drew strong support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.108 at 5.363 and rebounds strongly. At this point, intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 5.850 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 6.108 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a retest on 6.108 resistance. On the downside, however, below 5.354 will bring fall resumption towards 61.8% retracement at 4.902 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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