Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have Drawn a Line in The Sand

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.02 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 83.52. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing at 84.82. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.02. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.63.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.659 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 6.300 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.108. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 6.300. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.803. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.659.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday, as it appears to be forming a wave 4 correction off December's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 would open the door for a larger degree correction during the first half of January. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 77.59. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39.


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