While downside momentum is diminsihing a bit, intraday bias is still on the downside. Crude oil's fall from 83.95 is expected to continue and sustained d break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a rest on 68.59 support. On the upside, above 76.68 resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 79.16 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk will remain on the downside.
In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. ON the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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