Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. Strong Chinese import data along with a weaker Dollar are the primary factors driving the overnight rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.20 would signal that a short term top has been posted.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 82.67
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 83.52
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.20
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.71
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Natural gas was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.709 as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.709 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline during January. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.777 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.
Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 5.741
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.709
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.777
First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.545
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 5.505
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The U.S. Dollar was sharply lower overnight confirming last Friday's key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 78.43 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.84
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.43
First support is the overnight low crossing at 77.03
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66
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