With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some more sideway trading could be seen in crude oil and another recovery might be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 76.52). Nevertheless, fall fro 83.95 is still in favor to continue as long as 79.16 resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 will target a retest on 68.59 support. However, note that break of 79.16 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this resistance.
In the bigger picture, upside momentum is clearly diminishing as seen in bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. However, there is no confirmation that medium term rise has topped out yet as long as 68.59 support holds. Such medium term rise could still continue and above 83.95 will target 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, even in such case, we'll continue to look for reversal signal and expect crude oil to top out finally as it approaches 90 level. On the downside, break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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