Crude oil's correction from 83.95 resumed and dropped to as low as 75.82 so far. While another fall could still be seen, downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 74.46 and bring strong rebound. Above 78.25 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 83.95 resistance first. However, note that sustained trading below 74.46 fibo support will argue that rise from 68.59 has completed and will turn focus back to this key support level.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress but after all, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to fall from 147.27. Therefore, we'd continue to look for reversal signal in case of another rise and as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. On the downside, however, considering continuous bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, a break of 68.59 support will confirm that a medium term top is in place and will turn outlook bearish for a retest on 33.2 low as correction from 147.27 resumes.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
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