Thursday, January 28, 2010

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening


Crude oil closed slightly higher due to short covering on Thursday but remains below the 87% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 73.95. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 72.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday evening is 73.77

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.11

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 72.65
Second support is December's low crossing at 72.45

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday and tested the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.589 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.

Thursday evenings natural gas pivot point is 5.166

First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.504

First support is today's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919

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The March Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.

If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.27
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.27
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.91

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