Crude Oil Struggles Against Demand Concern on Weak Retail Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.56

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.650

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.785

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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