Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's break of 81.72 minor support suggests that a short term top is in place at 83.95. Intraday bias is flipped to the downside and some corrections could now be seen, probably to 38.2% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 78.08. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 74.46 and bring rally resumption. Above 83.95 will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again.

In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back..... Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas' correction from 6.108 is still in progress and dips to as low as 5.371 so far. Current fall is still expected to continue to 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.108 at 5.363 first and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 4.902. ON the upside, above 5.85 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But after all, break of 6.108 high is needed to confirm that medium term rise has resumed. Otherwise, we'd expect more consolidations with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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