Adam Hewison: All Eyes Continue To Focus On Europe

Here we are on the first day of the last week of September, with the end of Q3 approaching on Friday. Are the equity markets building a base to go higher? Or is this just a pause before we start heading back down?

All eyes continue to be focused on the European problem, especially Greece. We still believe Greece will default on their debt. And we still think that the politicians are looking for an easy way out of this economic malaise, unwilling to accept the consequences of their actions.

Last week we saw all the markets under pressure. For the last couple of days we’ve seen some minor support coming to the equity markets. And just today we have seen support come into the metals markets at much lower levels than most folks anticipated.

The November contract for crude oil appears to be finding support at the $78 a barrel level. While it is too early to say that this market has made a bottom, the action indicates that the momentum for the moment has stopped going down.

All of our Trade Triangles remain negative, with resistance coming out just around the $81.80 level basis November. As you may recall we are tying the crude oil market with the equity markets. As the equity markets go, so does crude oil at the moment. Short, Intermediate and Long term traders should continue to be short the crude oil market.

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If November extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at 76.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.96 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.65. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.96. First support is today's low crossing at 77.11. Second support is August's low crossing at 76.61.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90


Has gold found support? Read "Gold & Silver Pullback as Forecasted ..... Now for the Big Opportunity"

Has the Gold and Silver Market Topped Out?

Has the Gold and Silver market topped out? And have we seen the bottom in the Equity markets?

Today, Gold and Silver confirmed that they have topped out for the time being. The Equity markets are another story, and I’m not quite sure that we have seen a bottom put in place for those markets.

The crude oil market [October contract] is now back in an area that should provide resistance. This is based on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 85.30. Currently the market is trading a little above that level, which is not totally unusual in volatile markets. Long Term and intermediate term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. Short term traders should be on the sidelines in this market. The longer term trend for crude oil is down based on our Trade Triangle technology.

Crude oil trend analysis.....

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 85

Crude oil closed down $0.38 a barrel at $85.06 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The bulls have regaining some upside technical momentum this week. The next near term upside price breakout objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $89.19 a barrel.

Check out todays latest MarketClub video that covers the six major markets that we follow.

Unlimited access to this and other trading videos FREE! Click Here!

Adam Hewison: Forget The News If You Want To Trade Successfully!

Many news stories, particularly when it comes to the markets, are basically fed to reporters by folks who have a vested interest in that particular market. I’ve seen this happen time and time again, when information is given to an online anchor or someone else who is on air and reading the latest news. The information that they report, may be not accurate. In the competitive rush to get news online, and be the 1st to break a story, very few stories are ever checked and triple checked.

So we wake up this morning with the potential conflict in Libya over, and Libya’s Colonel Qaddafi’s 42 year reign of insanity has maybe come to an end. Based on that news, the Dow rallies up over 200 points. Let’s see, that little conflict cost the US about 1 trillion dollars, money we don’t have. How could that be good for the market?

Now we are tying the news in Libya to the markets here and the terrible economic conditions that exist, it is a stretch by anyone’s imagination. The truth is, that the markets probably rallied based on a short covering. Many active traders went home with short positions over the weekend. When the markets did not follow through to the downside they quickly covered their short positions and pushed the market higher.

So here’s my advice, do not pay too much attention to the news. Let the market, and the price action give you all the direction you need. Market action is the # 1 item to watch to be a successful trader.

Now, let’s go to the 6 major markets we track every day and see how we can create and maintain your wealth in 2011.

S&P 500
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

Remember, despite the big call this morning, the major trend is down for the equity markets. Today’s strong rally was probably an opportunity to go short. We see this market going lower.

SILVER
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Our Trade Triangles kicked in perfectly with a buy at 42.20 basis spot. Based on this signal, all traders should be long this market or looking to trade silver from the long side.

GOLD
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100

Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. It looks more and more likely that we will get close to the magical $2,000 an ounce. We expect to see professional profit taking and some shorting at that level.

CRUDE OIL 
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 90

Despite the knee jerk reaction rally based on the news out of Libya, the trend in crude oil is bearish. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops. The longer term trend for crude oil is down based on our Trade Triangle technology.

DOLLAR INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 55
This market has remained in a fairly well defined trading range for the last several months. With a Chart Analysis Score of + 55 we would want to approach this market using our Donchian Trading Channels as well as our Williams %R indicator. The index remains below its 200 day moving average, while our longer-term Trade Triangle remains positive.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 100

While our bias is towards inflation, the index is currently indicating that we are in more of a deflationary scenario. We want to remain patient and let our Trade Triangles signal when this market has made a trend change to the upside. Long Term, intermediate and short term traders should hang on for the ride and protect profits with money management stops.

Unlimited access to this and other trading videos FREE! Click Here!

New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?

Make no mistake about it, last week was a very important week for the stock market. Looking on the weekly equity charts, you will see one of the most powerful Japanese candlestick lines. This one line on the chart indicates that there could be some major problems ahead for the stock market.

In our new video we explain what this line is and how it can play out in the short and longer term time frames. As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We would really like to get your feedback on this powerful formation and what you see for the markets ahead.

Watch Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?



Share