Showing posts with label moving average. Show all posts
Showing posts with label moving average. Show all posts

Friday, May 4, 2012

Crude Oil Plummets on Disappointing Jobs Report

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Crude oil was lower as it extended Thursday's decline and renewed the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. In Friday mornings session the June contract lost more the $3.50 by 10 a.m. EST.

If June extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 104.03 would signal that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 104.03. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 106.43. First support is the overnight low crossing at 101.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14.

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Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Crude Oil Trends Appears to Change....Ball is in the Bulls Court

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Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the reaction high crossing at 105.50 confirming that a short term trend change has taken place. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at 109.13 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 106.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.13. First support is April's low crossing at 101.22. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 98.14.

Natural gas closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 2.607 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.134 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If June renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.620 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.385. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.607. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.134. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.982.

Gold closed slightly higher on Tuesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1699.60 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1681.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1699.60. First support is April's low crossing at 1613.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-February rally crossing at 1595.00.

How To Set the Right Profit Target and Stop Loss Levels

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Crude Oil Remains Locked in March's Down Trending Channel

Crude oil [May contract] closed lower on Thursday, as it remains locked in March's down trending channel. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. 


Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.83 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. 


First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing near 103.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

President Obama Looks into Oil Manipulation … Pure Political Theater

This is just pure political pandering to the masses. The world oil market does not just revolve around the US anymore. India and China are increasing players and are buying more oil in the world markets. It is the demand from the world for energy that is pushing prices higher, not the speculators.

And speaking of higher, crude oil [May contract] closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last week's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing near 104.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 105.49. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Crude Oil Falls on a Decline in China's Fuel Imports and Speculation on U.S. crude Stockpiles

Crude oil [May contract] closed lower for the second day in a row on Tuesday due to a decline in China's fuel imports and speculation that U.S. crude stockpiles rose to the highest in 22 years raised concern of slowing global demand.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.18 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing near 103.62. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.18. First support is today's low crossing at 100.68. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

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Monday, April 9, 2012

Can Crude Oil Bulls Rebound off of Mondays High Range Close

Crude oil [May contract] closed lower on Monday however the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing near 104.20. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.47. First support is today's low crossing at 100.81. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.


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Thursday, April 5, 2012

Crude Oil Gets a Lift From Job Report

Crude oil [May contract] closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.73 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing near 104.63. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 105.73. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 101.88. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March rally crossing at 97.84.

We are looking at a possible positive divergence for crude oil using the Williams% R indicator. Yesterday’s move in the May crude oil gave us a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for this contract. We expect this market to regroup and consolidate around current levels. Longer term we remain positive given the fact that our monthly Trade Triangle is in a green positive mode.

We are looking for crude oil to make its highs probably somewhere in the April/May period. With a trading score of -60 this commodity is currently in trading range. Long term traders should remain long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Check out Thursdays video and get a jump on next weeks trading.


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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold market Commentary For Tuesday March 13th

Crude oil [April contract] posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday's crossing at 104.35 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is this month's high crossing at 110.55. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 104.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 97.73.

Natural gas [April contract] posted a key reversal up due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.537 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If April extends the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.376. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.537. First support is today's low crossing at 2.204. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

Gold [April contract] closed sharply lower due to strength in the financial markets on Tuesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low is in or near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If April renews the decline off February's high, the reaction low crossing at 1652.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1726.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1792.70. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1663.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1652.20.

Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Was There an Explosion or Not?

Commodity traders rode a see saw session as markets spiked on news of an oil pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia. Only to trader lower as Saudi officials deny that any event took place at all.

Still, crude oil closed higher on Thursday extending the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends this winter's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.09 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.78. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.09.

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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Is a Short Term Top in for Crude Oil?

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If April extends this month's rally, the 2011 high crossing at 114.09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.13 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 109.95. Second resistance is the 2011 high crossing at 114.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 105.49. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.13.

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Crude Oil Bulls Maintain Advantage Inside New Trading Range

Crude oil Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 100.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 106.72. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2011's decline crossing at 109.54. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 102.88. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 100.75. Thursdays pivot point is 106.20.


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Monday, January 30, 2012

Crude Oil, Gold and Natural Gas All Start The Week Lower

Crude oil closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. March crude oil declined over Greece's debt and U.S. consumer spending stalled raising concerns that economic growth and fuel demand will decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 102.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews January's decline, December's low crossing at 92.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.24. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 103.90. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 97.40. Second support is December's low crossing at 92.95.

The Fed, the S&P 500, & Why Gold Is Shining Bright

Gold closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1654.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1742.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December decline crossing at 1772.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1689.30. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1654.80.

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Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.770 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March renews the multi year decline, monthly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.770. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.153. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 2.289. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.960.

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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Crude Oil Closed Higher on Tuesday Ending a Three Day Correction

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday ending a three day correction off last week's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.13 would signal that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 103.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 100.23. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 99.17.


Could Crude Oil Prices Intensify a Pending SP 500 Sell Off?

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Iran Tension Fails to Push Crude Oil Through Resistance

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If February extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.86 would signal that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 103.74. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2011 decline crossing at 104.84. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 100.78. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.86.


Precious Metals, Equities and Crude Oil Long Term Outlook

Monday, December 19, 2011

Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Monday Evening Dec. 19th

Crude oil closed slightly higher due to short covering on Monday as it bounces off support marked by the 38% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.68. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.10. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 101.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.37.

Gold closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 1543.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1688.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1688.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1562.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 1543.30.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 2.409 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.425 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.271. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.425. First support is today's low crossing at 3.050. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.409.

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Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Where is Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Headed on Wednesday Nov. 30th

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rebound off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January renews the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 94.99 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 94.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.05.

Natural gas posted an inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's loss. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.682 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.682. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at 3.936. First support is last week's low crossing at 3.461. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold posted a quiet inside day with a higher close on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.10. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1604.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.10 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1719.30. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.10. First support is last week's low crossing at 1667.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1604.70.


Is This December Similar to 2007 & 2008 for Gold & Stocks?

Monday, November 28, 2011

Where is Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

January crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off this month's high but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.24. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.62 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.05.

December natural gas posted a key reversal down on Monday after failing to overcome resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.573. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.573 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.573. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the June-November decline crossing at 3.786. First support is last week's low crossing at 3.285. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.50. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1604.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.50 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1725.20. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1743.50. First support is last week's low crossing at 1667.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1604.70.


Is This December Similar to 2007 & 2008 for Gold & Stocks?

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Crude Oil Confirms Thursdays Key Reversal Down Day

Crude oil closed lower on Friday confirming yesterday's key reversal down and closed below the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.11 hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off this month's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.46. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.525. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669. First support is today's low crossing at 3.285. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1748.40. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1681.20 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1797.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1797.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1711.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Crude Oil Pulls Back Overnight, Bulls Maintain the Advantage

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.42. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 110.46. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.04. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.08.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.693 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.570. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.693. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.325. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1745.20 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness during November. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of September's decline crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1745.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1681.20.


Don't miss our recent post "How to Trade Oil ETFs When $100 Per Barrel is Reached"

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Commodities Gain Strength on the Back of a Weaker U.S. Dollar

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday extending the rally off October's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off this month's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.63 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 100.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-October decline crossing at 105.41. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.63. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 89.17.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 3.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.978 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.978. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.039. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.652. Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.225.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional strength is possible near term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1704.70 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1826.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2008-2011 rally crossing at 1875.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1748.30. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1704.70.


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