Are Commodities Putting in a Bottom?

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 88.25 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 88.25. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 81.21. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.515 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.515. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.173. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.80 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1583.80. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.

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King Dollar Dominates, Crude Oil and Gold Continues the Free Fall

E-Minis Unfair Advantage....Have You Watch This Yet?

Crude oil closed down $1.23 a barrel at $92.75 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit a fresh 6 1/2 month low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. A stronger U.S. dollar index today was again bearish for the crude market.

Natural gas closed up 12 1/2 cents at $2.625 today. Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a fresh 10 week high. More short covering and bargain hunting buying were featured today. The bulls have upside near term technical momentum. The bears do still have the slight overall near term technical advantage, however.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 14 points at 81.52 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit another fresh four month high. More safe haven buying of the greenback was seen today. Bulls have gained solid upside near term technical momentum and have the solid overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed down $25.20 an ounce at $1,531.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 10 month low. The key “outside markets” were again in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and the crude oil market was lower. Serious near term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Now, gold prices are nearing major psychological support at the $1,500.00 level.

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Oil Prices Higher on Ireland Debt Plan, Overnight Short Covering

Oil prices are higher this morning after European and global financial authorities agreed to save debt latent Ireland and protect Europe's wider financial stability. This short covering overnight consolidated some of this month's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 79.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.60 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.60
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 89.10

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 82.13

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 80.65
Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 78.56


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Short Covering, Jobless Claims Push Crude Higher

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off last week's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 58.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 61.03

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.04
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.24

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.01
Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 58.58

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Crude Oil Slightly Higher on Short Covering

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off last week's high, the 38% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 64.38

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.98
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54

First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.40
Second support is the 38% retracement level crossing at 62.25

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