Markets Close Slightly Lower as Traders Appear to be in Wait and See Mode

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54.

October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.


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Crude Oil Moves into Positive Territory on all Trade Triangles

The crude oil market continues to consolidate over the $100 level. With all of our Trade Triangles in a positive mode we are looking for this market to move higher. A solid close over the $104 is needed to drive this market to the $120 level. External world events can trigger moves in this commodity. With a Chart Analysis Score of +90 this market remains in a strong trend to the upside. The crude oil market has resistance starting at $104. Long and intermediate term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

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Rigzone: Crude Ends Lower On Weak Equities, Dollar Gains

Crude oil futures fell Friday despite an improving U.S. jobs picture as traders focused on declines in equities markets and a stronger dollar.

Light, sweet crude oil for February delivery settled 25 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $101.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $102.80 earlier in the session. Brent crude oil on the ICE Futures exchange rose late in the session to trade 80 cents higher at $113.06 a barrel.

After trading higher early Friday, a lower opening for the U.S. stock market held oil futures in negative territory. Equities have served as a guide for oil prices in recent months, and worries about Italy's debt situation kept investors from cheering an improving U.S. employment picture.

A stronger dollar against the euro also took some wind out of the oil market. A rising dollar typically weighs on oil as it makes crude oil more expensive for buyers in other currencies.....Read the entire article.


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Metals Market Takes Center Stage in Wednesday Trading

The stars of the show today have to be the metal markets. Gold has rallied $50 from the low that we witnessed last week and is up over 1% today. Silver is even better with a rally of 1.82%. It seems as though the global anxiety factor is creeping back into the markets and people are getting more and more distrustful of what’s going on in the world.

The question is, can the Democrats and Republicans stop their bickering long enough and come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Eventually, I’m sure there will be some sort of compromise that will probably make both the liberals and the conservatives mad. It’s really time to stop all this bickering and start making some hard and difficult choices. I’m not sure the current set of politicians have the chutzpah to do this.

The banks stocks took a little hit today and it’s clear that these stocks are not out of the woods yet.

Let’s take a look at how things are shaping up today and go to the charts to see how we can protect and make your money grow. Click here to watch the video.

S&P 500: +100. The $1,340 level is proving to be the decisive place for the S&P 500. We’re now at the top of the Donchian channel and the market is very overbought. We expect to see more two-way action in the days ahead and eventually this market to roll over and possibly form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation. Although, trade triangles remain in a positive mode and that should not be ignored. Look for support to come into this market around the $1,300 level.

Silver: +75. Silver will put in another positive performance today moving up over the $36 an ounce level. This market is fast approaching the top of the Donchian trading channel and also moving into overbought territory. Our trade triangle technology is mixed at the moment with the longer-term trend being positive and the intermediate term trend being negative. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines in this market. We still believe that silver is building a major energy base to go higher.

Gold: +75. Gold has rallied over $50 an ounce in the space of four trading days and is acting like it is making a major energy base to push higher later in the quarter. Resistance starts around the $1,540 range. Long-term trends with the trade triangles are positive while intermediate term trends are neutral.

Crude Oil: -55. It looks as though the crude oil market has reached a level of equilibrium with the $98 a barrel price acting as some short term resistance point. We are still looking for this market to potentially challenge the triple digits over $100 a barrel. The market is however overbought so we may see some more two-way action. We are still watching the bullish engulfing line from last week and a higher close this week confirms that a bottom is in place.

The Dollar Index: -65. The market bounce we described in yesterday’s 1 PM update for the dollar index took place with the dollar over the $75 level for the first time in six days. This market remains trapped in a broad trading range, however the longer term trend for the dollar index is still negative according to our trade triangle technology. Resistance remains between $75 and $76.

Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: -65. This index is back to the midpoint of the Donchian trade channel and has just moved into an overbought situation. We expect that we will see more backing and filling in this market before it starts to move higher. If crude oil goes to $100 a barrel, then we are probably looking at this index around $350. Look for support at $335 and again at $330.

Just Click Here to watch our most current video for Wednesday July 6th.


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