Showing posts with label yields. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yields. Show all posts

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

The U.S dollar sold off slightly this week finishing at 79.70 hitting a 12 week low looking to retest the contract lows which were hit 4 months ago around 79.40 as I’m recommending a short position in the U.S Dollar Index placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 80.60 risking around $800 per contract as the trend now has turned bearish in my opinion. The commodity markets certainly like the fact that the U.S dollar is headed lower as well as the bond market rallying sending interest rates to new recent lows as it reminds me of 2006 all over again when stocks and commodities moved higher as the U.S equity market hit all time highs in the S&P 500.

Remember when you trade you want to try to keep it simple and this trade is extremely simple by recommending selling one futures contract and continuing to place your stop at the 10 day low as I do think contract lows will be breached next week as the Euro currency finished up over 100 points in the last 2 days to close above 1.3870 also hitting new recent highs with 1.40 next resistance point.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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The bond market finished lower for the 3rd straight trading session on Friday especially the five-year notes finishing down 12 ticks to close at 119 – 06 in the June contract having one of its weakest 3 days in over 2 months as the unemployment number came in at 175,000 which was construed as extremely bullish the economy sending bond yields higher. I have been advising a short position in the five year note for several months and I still believe if you’re a longer term investor and not necessarily a trader who gets in and out these are terrific selling opportunities as next month’s unemployment number in my opinion will improve and I think this is just an up day that you should be taking advantage of to get short.

The five year note is trading below its 20 & 100 day moving average hitting a 5 week low on Friday with large volume and if you’ve followed me on any of my previous blogs I generally place my stop at the 10 day high or low as an exit strategy, but as I stated earlier I am a long term investor on the five year note as I think rates are moving higher over the course of time and this is a trade you might stay in for 2 years but take advantage of historically low rates because eventually the Federal Government will stop there bond purchases it’s just a matter of when. If you have any questions on how to structure a portfolio to getting short the bond market while taking advantage of historically low rates feel free to contact me anytime will be more than happy to help.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: AWFUL

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Coffee Futures in the May contract are trading above their 20 day moving average and are trading 8000 points higher than their 100 day moving average that’s how far prices have come in the last 6 weeks as the drought in central Brazil continues its stranglehold on coffee growing regions pushing prices sharply higher currently trading at 198 in the May contract and I’ve been recommending a long position in coffee and if you’re still in this market I would place my stop below the 10 day low which is currently 170 as the chart structure is starting to improve & if you been reading my previous blogs I received a very interesting email last week from one of the largest coffee producers in Brazil and he was stating that there crop was absolutely devastated and there could be long term ramifications into next year as well and he also showed me many pictures of coffee trees and they were decimated too so I continue to remain bullish this market, however this market is extremely volatile at the current time so look at some July bull call option spreads as my next level is up to 2.50/2.75 as a possible target.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

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Sugar futures in the May contract sold off 31 points this Friday afternoon in New York but still finished higher by about 40 points for the trading week continuing its bullish trend as the drought in central Brazil is pushing up prices in recent weeks and I continue to recommend a bullish position in sugar while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 17.00 which is about 100 points away or $1,100 per contract. This is the 3rd consecutive week that sugar has traded higher and has turned from a bear market into a bull market with the next major resistance around 19/1950 which was hit last October and I do believe prices could go back up to those levels as the commodity markets in general have turned higher as the CRB index its trading at its highest level since October 2012 as many commodities are at all time highs. Anything grown in Brazil at this time due to the drought seems to be moving higher so I remain bullish the entire soft commodity complex just make sure that you do have an exit strategy in case prices turn around. Sugar futures are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend currently is higher.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Advanced Crude Oil Study – The 15 Minute Range

Corn futures in the December contract which is the new crop which will be harvested this fall was down $.05 at 4.84 but rallied about $.13 for the trading week closing on a disappointing note in Chicago and I’ve been recommending a bullish position in corn for quite some time while placing my stop at the 10 day low which currently stands at 4.60 risking around $.24 from today’s level or $1,200 per contract as traders are awaiting Mondays USDA crop report. The chart structure in corn is outstanding at this time and that is why am recommending this trade as prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average continuing the bullish trend as Spring is right around the corner here in Chicago as there is still large amounts of snow in the fields but we are starting to warm up this week with 40/50° days and this should be an extremely volatile year in corn as prices will have tremendous fluctuations due to weather conditions.

The whisper number for Monday’s crop report is around 92 million acres as last year was 97 million acres planted so the crop probably will not be a record this year as we harvested nearly 14 billion last year but this will be a long growing season but at the current time. I’m recommending buying on weakness making sure that you have some type of exit strategy as I think commodities as a whole are going higher.
TREND: HIGHER CHART
STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Sunday, February 23, 2014

Master Limited Partnerships Generate Safe Income for Seniors and Savers

By Dennis Miller

It's time to answer the "who, what, when, where, and why" of investing in master limited partnerships (MLPs)…....


Andrey Dashkov, senior research analyst at Miller’s Money Forever, is the rare person who, when you asked for a hammer comes back with a hammer, nails, staples, and glue. In short, he often comes up with better solutions to tricky problems than I ever thought possible.

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Since Andrey and I are on a nonstop mission to unearth the best opportunities for generating safe income, we have looked to MLPs more than once. Many Business Development Companies (BDCs) and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) also fit the bill. Today, however, we are focusing exclusively on how MLPs can produce a healthy and steady income without exposing your nest egg to unwelcome risks.


The Nuts and Bolts of MLPs

 

By Andrey Dashkov
An MLP is an entity structured as a limited partnership instead of the traditional C-corporation. This allows the company to avoid corporate-level taxes. The limited partners pay most of the taxes, which means that MLPs are essentially pass-through entities.

In the United States, the net effective rate of corporate income tax is 40%. That means a corporation calculates its profit, pays the appropriate income tax to the government, and then pays dividends from what remains. With an MLP all the profits are passed through to the unit holders.

While a traditional corporation can choose to pay a dividend, an MLP does not have that option. In order to maintain their status, MLPs are required to generate at least 90% of their income from qualifying sources and distribute the major portion of that income. In most cases these sources include activities related to the production, processing, and distribution of energy commodities, including gas, oil, and coal.

The government gives a special treatment to these activities to encourage investment into the United States' energy infrastructure.

Limited partners (LPs) own the company together with a general partner (GP). The GP takes care of the day-to-day operations, typically holds a 2% stake, and can usually receive incentive distribution rights (IDRs). LPs, called unit holders, (which we can become by buying shares of publicly traded MLPs) receive dividend-like cash distributions. LPs, unlike traditional shareholders, do not have voting rights.
There are many advantages to MLPs, including:
  • Attractive yields;
  • Inflation protection;
  • Portfolio diversification;
  • Tax advantages; and
  • Resilient business model.
 

Attractive Yields

 

MLPs pay various yields that average 5-10%. Data for the Alerian Index, which tracks the top 50 MLPs, show that in Q2 2013 MLP yields varied from 3-12%, with an average of 6.5%.Besides the actual yield, MLP investors can count on distribution growth. Dividends per share of Alerian Index constituents grew at a compounded rate of 4.1% over the past five years.

Inflation Protection

 

Several factors hedge against inflation:
  • Inflation-adjusted contracts renewed periodically;
  • Distribution growth has historically outpaced the growth in CPI; and
  • MLP unit (share) prices are weakly correlated with movements in inflation and interest rates.

 

Portfolio Diversification

 

MLPs have a low correlation to other asset classes, including equity, debt, and commodities. However, for a short time they may correlate with any asset class or the market in general.

MLPs are less volatile than the broad market. Currently at 0.5, the average beta of Alerian Index, is quite conservative. This suggests that if the broad market goes down by 10%, we should expect the Alerian Index to drop by 5%. An individual company's volatility may stray from the average, but in general MLPs should be much less volatile than the market as a whole.

Generally, the vast majority of MLPs operate in the energy sector, but usually do not own the underlying commodities; this is part of the reason for the decreased volatility. Their income generally consists of transportation fees. However, some MLPs can be exposed to commodity risk (coal, propane, and oil exploration and production MLPs, among others). Economy-wide consequences of a severe recession may impact the demand for energy commodities and, in turn, the profitability of transportation companies.

Tax Advantages

 

An MLP investor typically receives a tax shield of 80-90% of one's annual cash distributions, which is a very nice feature. This defers tax payments until the unit (your share) is sold.

The tax payment schedule for an MLP is illustrated below. Assume you bought one unit of an MLP for $20 and sold it after five years for $22, having received $2 annually in years 1-5. Assuming your ordinary income tax is 35%, and the long-term (LT) capital gains are taxed at 15%, you can see the breakdown.

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Purchase price $20.00
Distribution per unit $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00
Income per unit $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00
Depeciation expense $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 $1.60 $1.60
Cost basis $20.00 $18.40 $16.80 $15.20 $13.60 $12.00
Sale price $22.00
Taxes:
Earnings per unit
$0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40
Depreciation recapture
$8.00
Amount subject to ordinary tax rates $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $0.40 $8.40
Ordinary tax rates
35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
Taxes owed at ordinary rates 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 2.94
Amount subject to LT capital gains $2.00
LT capital gains rate
15%
Taxes owed at ordinary rates $0.30
Total taxes owed $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $3.24
Source: Credit Suisse


Resilient Business Model



During periods of economic uncertainty, MLPs remain a solid source of income. In 2008-2009, 78% of all energy MLPs either maintained or increased their distributions. In comparison, 85% of real estate investment trusts (REITs) either cut or suspended dividend payments.


Now, a note of caution is in order. Despite the excellent income track record, MLP share prices stumbled as they became more correlated to the general market. However, the investors who held them through the difficult times saw the share price rise again. MLPs returned to January 2008 levels in early 2010; the S&P 500 did not do the same until 2013.

The same plunge could happen again if a severe economic crisis hits. As we said, MLPs may move with a falling market. The fact that more investors are aware of MLPs now than a decade or two ago adds to this risk. As investors have searched for yield, MLPs have become more mainstream; however, they are by no means your average S&P 500 stock.

Also, there are two immediately positive outcomes to the higher investor awareness of MLPs: higher liquidity and access to more capital. In the Money Forever portfolio we look for the best and safest available and then protect our downside with protective stop losses.

Principal Risk Areas

 

With any investment offering a reward, there is a corresponding risk. Here are the key risks of MLPs.
Risk #1: Economic downturns. If the US economy is hit by a severe economic crisis that drives the demand for energy products down, MLPs will take a blow. Like a trucking business that transports products for which the demand is going down, if less product is shipped through a pipeline owned by an MLP, their revenue may decrease.

This, however, is where some investors may get confused. If a pipeline MLP has a contract with an energy company, the price of the transported product may increase or decrease, but at the same time, the MLP may have a fixed-fee arrangement with the energy company. So, if the volume flowing through the pipeline remains steady, its revenue should not fluctuate.

Risk #2: Access to capital and interest rates. As a general rule, MLPs return 100% of their distributable cash flow (DCF), less a reserve determined by the general partner, to the unit holders. Unlike real estate investment trusts that must give away a certain share of their cash flow every quarter, MLP distributions are governed by individual partnership agreements, so the terms vary.

However, the majority of cash an MLP earns will be distributed, so it's only natural that they turn to issuing debt or equity to finance growth projects. When their interest costs rise MLPs that need capital right away will be at a disadvantage. We prefer companies with enough internally generated capital to finance growth, and no major ongoing projects that require billion dollar loans and thereby run the risk of being underfunded or funded at an unfavorable interest rate. We also prefer companies with fixed rate debt to floating rate.

Risk #3: Management and execution. Management should have a track record of successful investment in new assets and cash generation to finance distributions.

We also look for companies that have 5 to 10 year capital plans as part of the write up, and a history of following those plans. They tend to fare better when it comes to keeping capital costs under control.

Risk #4: Sustainability of cash distributions. The above three risks boil down to whether or not an MLP will be able to churn out cash for its unit holders. The distributions should be sustainable, and should grow year after year. The primary reason for buying an MLP is income. We need to make sure the cash keeps coming in.

A company's track record of cash payments is a good, but not perfect, indicator of how it will perform in the future. Variable-rate distributions tend to, well, vary more significantly than those of traditional MLPs.

Distributions in the midstream sector tend to be more predictable; natural gas pipelines and storage generate the most stable cash flows while refining/upstream MLPs do so to a lesser extent. We carefully consider these factors when evaluating our investment options.

The "Taper" Factor

 

When Ben Bernanke uttered the word "taper" on June 19, the markets jittered. Even the traditionally defensive sectors such as utilities took a hit.



MLPs were not immune to the potential implications of the Fed easing up on its bond-purchase program which many believe is helping the US economy. The market panicked, and MLPs dropped in price. Readers will note the index dropped in the middle of 2013. The drop was less steep than those in either the broad market or the utilities sector and MLPs rebounded—in less than a week, while it took approximately three weeks for both the S&P 500 and XLU to get back to their June 18 levels.

When evaluating a potential candidate, a prudent investor will see how they have performed during times of market volatility. Sometimes trading a bit of yield for much less volatility is a smart move.

The IRA Caveat

 

We do not recommend putting MLPs in an IRA account. By placing an MLP in a tax-deferred account, you may lose part of the tax advantage the MLP structure provides. In an IRA account, unrelated business taxable income (UBTI) of over $1,000 is subject to federal income tax. If you earn more than $1,000 annually from an MLP's cash distributions and other sources of UBTI, the excess will be taxable. This becomes more likely over time, since most MLPs increase their cash distributions.

A Peek Behind the Curtain

 

In summary, an MLP gives us a couple of advantages from a tax perspective. There is more money to pay out in dividends. Unlike a traditional corporate dividend, which is paid after a corporation pays income taxes, MLPs do not pay corporate income taxes. An MLP's income is taxed only once, when the dividends are received.

Initially, when you buy an MLP, only 10 to 20 percent of the MLP distribution is considered taxable income. The rest of the distribution is considered return of capital and isn't subject to tax when you receive the dividend. Basically you put off paying some taxes for the short term. When you eventually sell your MLP, the tax is adjusted so the net amount of taxes is the same. The formula is technical, but the information you receive from your broker can be given to a competent CPA and you should be fine.

You can see why MLPs have become so popular in a yield-starved environment. While they have attracted a lot of investors, there are still some great opportunities for those willing to do their homework.

Dennis and I added our favorite MLP to the Money Forever portfolio in October, and we are chomping at the bit to share it with you… But, because of the special relationship we share with our paid subscribers, you'll need to sign up to for a premium subscription at no-risk to your pocketbook to find out what it is. Subscribe to our regular monthly newsletter and take a peek at the MLP we recommended, along with our entire portfolio.

If, after 90 days, you decide it's not right for you, we'll return 100% of your money without a fuss. Click here to get started.



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