CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Crude Oil Surprises, Moves Above 10 Day Moving Average
Crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.36 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
If August extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.99
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second resistance is today's high crossing at 3.79
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 34.36
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
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Natural Gas Heads to Seven Year Low as Supplies Swell
Natural gas futures, the worst performing commodity in 2009, may fall to seven year lows as demand drops with the deepest recession in half a century. Because chemical plants and power producers are burning less, gas inventories rose to 2.886 trillion cubic feet in the week ended July 10, the highest for any week in July since at least 1994, the U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday. Natural gas is down 36 percent this year on the New York Mercantile Exchange.....Complete Story
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Exxon Mobil Bets on Gas Locked in Colorado Mountains
At one time, even nuclear bombs couldn’t loosen ‘tight gas’ trapped in sandstone. Now Exxon Mobil says it has a way.
Oil and gas producers have known for decades that a massive bounty of natural gas lies beneath western Colorado's mountains. Getting at it, however, can be costly and complicated. With a potential gain of 1 billion cubic feet per day of output from its leased land in the deepest part of the gas rich Piceance Basin which would be about 2 percent of all U.S. gas production Exxon Mobil Corp. spent the last decade perfecting a way to drill less for more gas.....Complete Story
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Before You Blame Speculators for Oil ETF Moves…Could You Be One?
From Tom Lydon at ETF Trends....
Oil prices are nowhere near steady, and investors are perplexed as they try to figure out why. Analysts believe that there is one thing that is creating these gyrations in shares prices and exchange traded funds (ETFs): the dreaded speculator. But before you get out your torches…could you be one, too? What’s behind the wild gyrations in oil prices? Market watchers believe it is the investors themselves, the so called speculators.....Complete Story
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Chinese Oil Majors Collect Stake in Angola's Block 32 for $1.3B
Marathon announced that its subsidiary, Marathon International Petroleum Angola Block 32 Limited, has entered into a definitive agreement with CNOOC International Limited (CNOOC), and Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation (SINOPEC) under which CNOOC and SINOPEC will purchase an undivided 20 percent participating interest in the Production Sharing Contract and Joint Operating Agreement in Block 32 offshore Angola. The transaction has a total value of $1.3 billion, excluding any purchase price adjustments at closing, with an effective date of Jan. 1, 2009.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Struggles to Extend Rally, Analyst Calling For Lower Prices
Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
Friday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 61.59
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 62.35
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.99
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August natural gas renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.16 is the next downside target.
The natural gas pivot point for Friday is 3.52
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.68
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.43
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
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Thursday, July 16, 2009
Profits For Oil Industry Expected to Fall Sharply
For the second straight quarter, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and most of the world’s largest oil companies are poised to report quarterly earnings that pale in comparison to a year ago, when results were buoyed by crude prices that topped out near $150 a barrel. The April-June results may be somewhat better than first quarter earnings, which were the lowest in several years, but declines of 50 percent or more from a year ago are likely to be the norm. That’s what happens when oil prices plunge more than 60 percent.....Complete Story
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Oil May Test Bollinger Support Near $58
Crude oil remains in a downtrend and may slip toward its lower Bollinger Band just above $58 a barrel as traders test the resilience of technical support levels, said the head of Cameron Hanover Inc. Oil traded above $62 a barrel this week as buyers stepped in after futures, which dropped July 13 to an eight week low of $58.32, were deemed undervalued, said Peter Beutel, president of the New Canaan, Connecticut-based trading advisory firm......Complete Story
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Where Is Crude Oil Headed on Friday
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow [Friday].
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