Crude Oil Closes Below 20 Day Moving Average, Lower Prices Possible

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.39 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 68.99 would confirm that a short term low has been posted while renewing the rally off this month's low.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is today's low crossing at 62.76
Second support is this month's low crossing at 59.30

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If September extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.445 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.782 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.70
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.78

First support is today's low crossing at 3.46
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.23

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U.S. Interior Dept Gets Green Light for GOM Leasing Plan

Today, U.S. Department of the Interior Secretary Ken Salazar issued the following statement regarding the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruling on DOI's request for clarification of the Court's earlier decision to vacate the 2007-2012 Outer Continental Shelf oil and natural gas leasing program.... "I am pleased with the Court's decision. Consistent with the Department's request, the Court clarified that its prior ruling only applies to the Chukchi, Beaufort and Bering Seas. We are moving forward with the planned August 19th Gulf of Mexico lease sale".....Complete Story

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Decline Oil Price Accelerates As Recent Rally Looks Overdone

Currently trading at 65.7, decline in crude oil price accelerates in European morning, consistent with sharp falls in stock markets. Investors take profit after prices had rallied for almost 2 weeks and recent rises look excessive. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid -1.1% although Japan's Nikkei 225 Index added +0.26% to 10113. In China the Shanghai Composite Index tumbled -5% as led by plunges in oil and base material shares. In European morning, stocks seem to be unaffected by slumps in US and Asia. US' FTSE 100 Index gains almost +1% while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 adds +1.9% and +1.8%, respectively.....Complete Story

Oil Falls the Most in Three Months After Unexpected Supply Gain

Crude oil fell the most in three months after a government report showed an unexpected gain in U.S. inventories as imports jumped and refiners reduced operating rates. Stockpiles surged 5.15 million barrels to 347.8 million in the week ended July 24, the Energy Department said. It was the biggest weekly increase since April. Supplies were forecast to decline by 1.5 million barrels, according to the median of analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. “The main problem with this market is the fact that there’s too much oil out there,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, in Winchester, Massachusetts. “We may test $60 before the week is over as these numbers are absorbed".....Complete Story

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ConocoPhillips Profit Drops 76% After Oil and Gas Plunge

ConocoPhillips, the third biggest U.S. oil company, said second quarter profit fell 76 percent after the recession spurred a collapse in energy prices. Net income dropped to $1.3 billion, or 87 cents a share, from $5.44 billion, or $3.50, a year earlier, Houston based ConocoPhillips said today in a statement. Excluding such one time items as a $192 million gain on the company’s Lukoil investment, profit was about 85 cents share, 1 cent higher than the average of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. oil futures plunged by more than half, averaging $59.79 a barrel, and gas prices fell 67 percent. ConocoPhillips is cutting its capital spending 37 percent this year and said in January that it would reduce its workforce by 4 percent.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Energy Markets Fall as Oil Majors Report Earnings

Crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off this month's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.54 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point for crude oil is 67.52

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.54
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 63.76

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Natural gas was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.676. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.676 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 3.71

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.61
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.37

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Oil Prices Set to Fall

Crude oil prices are set for a dramatic downturn as huge stockpiles of fuels and heating oil accumulate in U.S. storage facilities, analysts say. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is prepared for drastic declines in crude prices as suppressed demand translates to a buildup of oil based fuel reserves. "Inventories are at just ridiculously high levels," says Kevin Rooney, chief executive at the Oil Heat Institute of Long Island trade group. "I would imagine that just about every available barrel of storage is full".....Complete Story

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Crude Oil's Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Lower Open on Wednesday

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the rally off this month's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 74.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.74 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 74.25

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.74
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 63.76

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.690 would temper the near term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.261 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.05
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.26

First support is today's low crossing at 3.61
Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.23

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Supporters of Offshore Drilling Eyeing Area Off Florida's Coast

Two senators from oil producing states have introduced legislation that would bring oil drilling to within 45 miles of Florida's Gulf coast. The bill sponsored by Sens. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Mary Landrieu, D-Louisiana, would effectively void a 2006 law crafted by Florida's congressional delegation, which put a massive swath of federal waters close to the state off limits until at least 2022. The sponsors said Monday the legislation would benefit states by giving them a cut 37.5 percent of the revenue from offshore oil and gas exploration off their coasts.....Complete Story

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Goldman Sachs Closes Position in December 2011 Crude

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. closed its recommendation to buy crude futures for December 2011 delivery after long dated oil prices approached the bank’s target of $85 a barrel.

Oil’s rally to a three week high has been driven by distillate fuel demand from emerging markets, Goldman said today in its Energy Weekly. This reliance on distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, “may limit further near term upside,” the bank said.

“It is still too early to argue that distillate has comfortably turned the corner,” Jeffrey Currie , a London based analyst at Goldman, said in the report. “The recent crude rally has been anomalous led by rising long-dated prices rather than by improving time spreads.”

Goldman recommended in a July 15 report that investors buy crude for December 2011 delivery and short the call options on the same contract at $100 a barrel and short put options at $65 a barrel. The combined return on that strategy is 16.2 percent, the bank said. December 2011 oil futures traded as high as $81.31 today in New York .

“We will look for future pullbacks to reinstate this position,” Currie said in the note.

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