Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged higher to 72.55 but upside momentum remains unconvincing. Nevertheless, another rise is still mildly in favor with 68.16 support intact. Break of 73.16 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion. On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 65.05 will reaffirm the original bearish view that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 already and will bring fall resumption towards 58.32 key support next.

In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling so far dampens the bearish view that crude oil's medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0. Nevertheless, risk remains on the downside as long as 73.16 resistance holds. A break below 65.05 support will solidify the case the crude oil has topped out in medium term again. In such case, deeper fall should be seen to test on 58.32 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 75.0 at 59.03) first and break will target a retest of 33.2 low. However, a break of 75.0 will indicate that rise from 33.2 has resumed for 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) instead.....Here is the charts!

Oil Pares Weekly Gain as Bernanke Says Fed May Tighten Policy

Crude oil fell in New York, paring its weekly gain, as the dollar climbed after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy may be tightened once the economic outlook has “improved sufficiently.” Oil traded near $71 a barrel as the U.S. currency rose against the yen and the euro, damping the investment appeal of commodities including gold. Prices rallied 3 percent yesterday after the dollar declined and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped.

Bernanke’s remarks have had “a small impact on the immediate market,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “It shows policy is not decided yet. The trend of the dollar will continue” to give direction to oil prices, he said. Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $71.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $71.13 at 11:09 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose $2.12 to settle at $71.69. Futures are poised.....Read the entire article.

Devaluation of the Dollar Spurs Oil Investment

"Oil had a couple of things going on today -- most notably, the dollar went through its low from September," explained Darin Newsom, senior analyst with DTN, a market information service in Omaha, Nebraska. "So we've got this pressure in the dollar, and that is sparking all kinds of buying interest in commodities." Investment in the commodity is increased when the value of the dollar falls because oil is traded in the greenback and investors holding other currencies are able to purchase oil at a cheaper price. "We saw the dollar coming under pressure today on the idea that maybe the economy is still going to sputter around here for a while as we go into the fourth quarter, early first quarter of next year," Newsom continued.

"Even though the Federal Reserve hinted that in 2010 we would start to see interest rates possibly start to go up, certainly there is no indication now that is going to happen any time soon; and again with the dollar moving to the new low, it would seem to confirm that idea that we're in this time where we're going to just hold low interest rates.....read the entire article

Crude Oil Bulls Take The Momentum Into Weeks End

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

If November extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 73.58 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 68.05 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 72.55
Second resistance is September's high crossing at 73.58

First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.05
Second support is September's low crossing at 65.05

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.840. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 5.133 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.672 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.12
Second resistance the August's high crossing at 5.13

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.84
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.67

Here's 4 FREE Videos from INO TV!

The U.S. Dollar posted a new low for the year on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. A short covering rally tempered early session losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If December renews September's decline, monthly support crossing at 73.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 77.73 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.81
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.93

First support is today's low crossing at 75.68
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 73.39

Oil Rises to Two Week High as Jobless Claims Drop, Dollar Falls

Crude oil rose to a two week high as the number of Americans filing jobless claims dropped and the dollar declined, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. Oil climbed as much as 4.3 percent as Labor Department data showed that initial applications for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since January. Gold increased to a record for a third day and other raw material prices gained as the U.S. currency declined to a two week low against the euro.

“Crude oil is tracking the behavior of other markets,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “The jobs number was good. The recession is probably over and employment is a lagging indicator.” Crude oil for November delivery climbed $2.80, or 4 percent, to $72.37 a barrel at 12:38 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $72.55, the highest since Sept. 18. Oil has traded between.....read the entire article

What You Don't Know About Trading Gold.....

There is no doubt about it - gold is getting a lot of press and media attention lately. So the question is, is the move in gold over or is it just beginning?

I don’t believe the move is over on the upside for gold, but in our new two minute video I’m going to share with you an alternative to gold that should do just as well for many of the same reasons. This is a big liquid market and has great upside potential and is less volatile than gold.

Just Click Here to watch this new gold video and as always, our videos are free to view and do not require any registration. If you think this is an important video, I strongly suggest you share it with your friends and please feel free to leave a comment.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil retreats sharply after rising to 7.197 and hit near term trend line resistance. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Nevertheless, another rise is still mildly in favor with 68.16 support intact. Above 71.97 will bring rise resumption. Further break of 73.16 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has completed at 65.05 already. The corrective structure will in turn indicate that medium term rally is still in progress for another high above 75.0 before completion.

On the downside, below 68.16 will suggest that rebound from 65.05 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 65.05 will reaffirm the original bearish view that crude oil has topped out at 75.0 already and will bring fall resumption towards 58.32 key support next. In the bigger picture, the lack of follow through selling so far dampens the bearish view that crude oil's medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 75.0.....read the entire article and charts!

Oil Rises as Dollar Declines, Crude Supplies Fall Unexpectedly

Oil rose in New York as the dollar weakened against the euro and a government report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude supplies, boosting optimism about a demand recovery in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil pared yesterday’s 1.9 percent fall as the dollar declined toward a two-week low, increasing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Prices were also supported by an Energy Department report that showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell 978,000 barrels last week amid a drop in imports. A 2 million barrel gain was forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

“The imports were down and that was a big surprise,” said Jonathan Koranfel, a director for Asia at options traders Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “Any more weakness in the dollar is limiting oil’s gains to a cap of about $72. The trading range in crude has gone from $65 to $75 to about $68 to $72. It’s just getting tighter and tighter.” Crude oil for November delivery gained as much as 83 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $70.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $70.18 at 12:55 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract dropped $1.31 to settle at $69.57. Prices have gained 57 percent since the start of the year.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Falls More Than $1 After U.S. Fuel Supplies Increase

Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel after a U.S. Energy Department report showed that inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel increased. Gasoline supplies climbed 2.94 million barrels to 214.4 million last week, almost three times the gain forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, rose to the highest since January 1983. Oil also dropped as the rising dollar curbed the appeal of energy as an inflation hedge.

“This is a very bearish report,” said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citi Futures Perspective in New York. “The product builds are significant and increase the cushion against any disruption. It takes uncertainty about refiners out of the equation.” Crude oil for November delivery fell $1.31, or 1.9 percent, to $69.57 a barrel at 2:59 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since Sept. 29. Prices have gained 56 percent this year.....read the entire article

Great Spin on Oil Rumors and Short Trades

Dan Dicker expert trader says recent rumors that oil won't be priced in U.S. dollars are totally false but the news does provide three ways to make money.