Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gas are likely headed next week.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.51 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 75.72. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.51. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.83. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's breakout above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.247. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 4.587 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off this month's high, this month's low crossing at 3.971 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.399. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.971.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.51. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1202.90. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1249.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1218.50. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.

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Hate Politicians, Not Big Oil

John Hofmeister, author of "Why We Hate The Oil Companies", says America's politicians do more to create energy problems than solve them.



As president of Shell Oil, John Hofmeister was known for being a straight shooter, willing to challenge his peers throughout the industry. Now, he’s a man on a mission, the founder of Citizens for Affordable Energy, crisscrossing the country in a grassroots campaign to change the way we look at energy in this country. While pundits proffer false new promises of green energy independence, or flatly deny the existence of a problem, Hofmeister offers an insider’s view of what’s behind the energy companies’ posturing, and how politicians use energy misinformation, disinformation, and lack of information to get and stay elected. He tackles the energy controversy head-on, without regard for political correctness. He also provides a new framework for solving difficult problems, identifying solutions that will lead to a future of comfortable lifestyles, affordable and clean energy, environmental protection, and sustained economic competitiveness.


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What Hurricane Season Forecast Means for Natural Gas ETFs

The numbers are out: an active storm season is predicted for the Atlantic, and natural gas related ETFs are already gearing up and moving on the news. More storms than “normal”, about 16, are anticipated to hit the Atlantic coast of the United States this season. Of these, eight are expected to become hurricanes and about four of them are going to be intense, according to the Tropical Storm Risk.

Alex Morales and Brian K. Sullivan for Bloomerg BusinessWeek reports that the forecast joins a growing number of predictions that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which starts June 1, will be among the most active on record. As the number of hurricanes rises, so do the chances of one striking the oil rich Gulf of Mexico or Florida’s crop areas.

The Gulf is home to about 30% of U.S. oil and 12 % of U.S. natural gas production, the U.S. Energy Department says. It also has seven of the 10 busiest U.S. ports, according to the Army Corps of Engineers. Meanwhile, BP is still trying to cap a leaking offshore oil well that has created a devastating slick that is washing up in Louisiana. Attempts to stop the oil will be hampered if and when a tropical storm or hurricane passes through the Gulf of Mexico.....Let's go to the charts!

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Crude oil rises further to as high as 75.72 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside and rebound from 64.24 is in favor to continue to 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 78.39. On the downside, though, break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that such recovery is completed and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, decisive break of resistance at 78 level is needed to indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Phil Flynn: The Audacity Of Hope

If the economy bounces back and the Chinese hang onto their Euros, can oil bulls find love and happiness in this world of economic turmoil? The audacity of hope once again has crept back into the oil market. A string of strong macroeconomic numbers that blew away market expectations, as well as some strong oil demand numbers, has the marketplace trying to forget all about the fears of a global economic meltdown that has engulfed the market. For today all the subplots have been put aside for the moment as the market now wants to bask in the economic silver linings of the moment.

You know you are going to have a good day when you get a report that shows refinancings are rising and housing sales of new homes surged 14.8%. Add to that a strong durable goods number that gained 2.9 percent in April, the fourth boost in the last five months, and somehow the world is not so scary. Oh sure the Europeans have problems as evidenced by rumors that the Chinese were looking to divest themselves from Euros and it seems that the world's largest oil consumer, the USA, might lead the oil market out of its recent darkness.

That mood was further cemented when the Energy Information Agency released a report that showed some stellar oil demand numbers. Despite the fact that the EIA reported that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week, they also reported that the string of increases at the key delivery pinpoint Cushing, Oklahoma actually fell from its record high. Along with that the EIA reported demand numbers that....Read the entire article.

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Dennis Gartman: Is Crude Oil the Only Game in Town?

Gold and Euro is basically little changed for the month, says Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as European Debt fears ease. Today's rally led to a close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.96 signaling that a short term low has likely been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.68. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15. Second support is last July's low crossing at 66.11.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.254 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 4.587 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off this month's high, this month's low crossing at 3.971 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.315. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 4.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.036. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.971.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 86.44 warning bulls to use caution as a double top might be forming. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.27 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.27.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1204.40. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, this month's high crossing at 1249.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1218.50. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.

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Crude Oil Jumps More Than $3 as China Reaffirms Support for the Euro

Crude oil surged more than $3 a barrel as equities and the euro rallied after China affirmed its commitment to investing in Europe. Oil climbed 4.3 percent as China denied as “groundless” a report that it’s reviewing euro holdings and the nation’s sovereign wealth fund said it’s maintaining European assets. The euro gained 1.5 percent against the dollar, boosting the appeal of commodities as an alternative to the U.S. currency. “If China were really looking to offload euro denominated debt, that would put downward pressure on the euro, and the euro/dollar rate has been one of the key factors in oil prices,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington.

Crude oil for July delivery rose $3.04 to settle at $74.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest one day increase since Sept. 30. Futures have climbed 17 percent in the past year. The euro rose to $1.236 at 3:15 p.m. in New York, compared with $1.2178 yesterday. It was the first increase in the euro in four days. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.8 percent to 1,097.55, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 237.53 points, or 2.4 percent, to 10,211.98. “The big news is U.S. macroeconomic data is still solid,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “Growth is the story”....Read the entire article.

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New Video: One Year Later, Reality Sets in for the SP 500

It's been just a little over a year since we had our first major buy signal for the S&P 500 at 888.70 on 5/4/09. Since that time, the S&P 500 has climbed approximately 61.8% from the lows that were seen in early March of '09 and the highs that were seen in October of '07.

We take our "Trade Triangle" technology very seriously and this signal today (5/25) at 1044.50 is our first major sell signal since 7/1/08 at 1,272.00 and should not be ignored.

There are a whole host of problems that are coming due around the world that will have negative consequences for the equity markets. The problems in Greece and Europe are well known and are likely to continue for the balance of the year. This is going to have a negative impact on markets in general.

In our new short video we show you exactly what we think is going to happen to the S&P 500 market and just how you can protect yourself if we are correct. As always our "Trade Triangles" will dictate all market action. At the present time all of our "Trade Triangles" are negative and pointing to the downside. This indicates that a very strong trend is in place and it likely to continue.

Many traders, especially younger traders, are unaware of how bear markets work. Bear markets tend to be demoralizing as they do not have any strong and sustained rallies. They tend to erode as more and more traders become unnerved and throw in the towel.

We invite you to take a look at this new video with no registration and no charge.


Watch....One Year Later, Reality Sets in for the SP 500


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