Phil Flynn: Pricing In Mediocrity

Global oil markets are finding it hard to get excited living in this new post Federal Reserve World. The passion left the market place and sunk in to a kind of what might be described as a stag deflation mode. All across the yield curve, from the short end to the long, yields are sinking to near record lows. While cheap money is keeping our economy meandering along, it is not the type of drive that seems to be the type of growth that will translate into strong energy demand. What’s more, even stories that are normally bullish for oil and the products are not giving the market the support you would expect.

For example the Chinese allowed their currency, the yuan renimbi, to rise to what is called the highest level in the modern era. The Wall Street Journal reported that on the over the counter market, the dollar was at CNY6.7900 around 0930 GMT, down from Thursday's close of CNY6.7997. It traded between CNY6.7856 and NY6.7977. The low end of the range was below the previous modern-era intraday low of NY6.7958, set Monday. The yuan is up 0.53% this week. Yet not even what many thought would be a bullish move for oil has given us much play. In fact oil lost ground on the announcement.Now some say that is because the move by the Chinese was only a.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Advances on Concern Storm May Disrupt Gulf of Mexico Production

Crude oil rose the most in two weeks in New York on concern the first tropical storm of the hurricane season may form and disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico. The gain accelerated as the dollar weakened against the euro. Oil climbed as much as 3.4 percent after the National Hurricane Center said that a low pressure area located in the Caribbean off Honduras and Grand Cayman has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone this weekend and may head into the Gulf.

“We always see knee jerk reactions when storms enter the Gulf, and there are concerns that storms will damage either offshore or onshore infrastructure,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. Crude for August delivery gained $2.12, or 2.8 percent, to $78.63 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage gain since June 9. Oil rose as high as $79.11. The contract has increased 0.5 percent this week.

The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2355 at 1:17 p.m., after falling as low as 1.2254. A lower U.S. currency versus the euro bolsters the appeal of crude as an alternative investment. “The dollar is weakening and it seemed to give crude a little boost,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. The low pressure area is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula, and the system may become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, the hurricane center said at 8 a.m. Miami time today.

About 31 percent, or 1.69 million barrels a day, of U.S. oil production comes from federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the Energy Department.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Bears Take a Clear Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.48
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil pivot point for Friday is 76.13

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight and trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.779. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.926

Friday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.767

Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Extends Decline Below the 10 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.37. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.98. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.930. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.691. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.628.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.50. Second support is Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Sure, we are Trading Oil....But Forex Should not be Foreign to You....Watch New Video

It's the biggest market in the world and is traded 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and therefore one that is impossible to ignore. I'm speaking, of course, about the forex market.

The question is, is this the tail that's wagging the dog? Meaning, is the forex market, mainly the euro, dictating the trend in American and European equity markets.

The answer is yes, for the moment it is. Now, if you're not familiar with the forex markets and the euro, you should look at the ETF FXE, the spot euro, and also the euro futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), as they are all tradable.

In today's short video we show you exactly how we think this currency will play out in the future. And as always, our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. Please leave us a comment on your thoughts on this video and the current market.


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Dan Dicker: Avoid Oil Drillers

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for The Street .Com, says despite the fact that he's buying some energy stocks he's avoiding oil drillers for now. Follow Dan on Twitter at Dan Dicker.



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Crude Oil Bears Appear to Have The Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.97 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.94
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67

Thursday's pivot for crude oil is 76.45

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.97
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.933. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.933 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.932
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 4.809

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.758
Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.756

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks at where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.






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Sharp Drop in New Home Sales Pushes Oil, Gold and U.S. Dollar Lower

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday due to slow oil sales and a sharp decline in new home sales. Today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.40 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.79 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 78.92. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.79. Second support is today's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.917. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.694 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.691. Second support is today's low crossing at 4.691.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday ending a two day correction off Monday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. However, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.16 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.16. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Wednesday following the release of today's bearish new home sales data. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1230.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1230.10. Second support is today's low crossing at 1225.20.

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