New Video: This Trendline is Crucial Support for the S&P 500

This is going to be a short video, but one we believe is important to all traders and investors.

The video runs two minutes and 18 seconds and shows you one key element that we think can make or break the S&P 500 market.

Please feel free to comment here on our blog with your thoughts on this market.

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil prices are trading lower early again today. Bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit.

In September crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at 80.00 and then at the overnight high of $80.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $79.00 and then at $78.50. Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 80.36.

The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in early trading, on short covering and safe haven buying interest. Bulls have quickly gained fresh upside near term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter term technical resistance at 82.00 and then at 82.25. Shorter term support is seen at 81.50 and then at 81.23.


New Video: How to Spot Winning Trades


Share

Where is Crude Oil & Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.51 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.08 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is today's low crossing at 79.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.08.

Natural gas closed slightly lower on Tuesday but remains above support marked by July's low crossing at 4.290. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, May's low crossing at 4.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.622 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.583. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.622. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.313. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.140.

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday while extending last week's trading range. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1129.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1100.59 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1127.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1129.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1100.59. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1083.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. A late day sell off tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. A late day sell off tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 78.60.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Phil Flynn: If At First You Don't Succeed, Try, Try Again!

If at first you don't succeed, try, try again! It’s Fed Day and the global energy markets are waiting to find out whether or not the Fed is going to boost the markets with another shot of quantitative easing. Speculation is swirling that the Fed, desperate to knock the malaise out of the economy, will double down on its policy and flood the economy with even more printed money. This is a far cry from expectations just a few weeks ago when the Fed was widely expected to reduce their balance sheet as they were set to collect 100 to 180 billion dollars in profit from its Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) it took over in the heat of the financial crisis.

Instead of putting that money back in their coffers and reducing the money supply, the fearful Fed may just pump that cash back out there and buy more MBS or bonds to try to inspire some economic activity and maybe even some job creation. In fact data out of China overnight might even put more pressure on the Fed to act. Chinese imports came in much weaker than expected in July causing a big selloff in the Shanghai composite index. The index dropped 2.9% which was its worst percentage.....Read the entire article.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

New Video - Dissecting The World Cup Portfolio

Today we are going to take a look at MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio that has been tracking six markets for the past three years. We think it is fair to say that the last 36 months have presented one of the most challenging trading environments in recent memory.

So how did we do?

We put together this very short video which is only 1 minute 45 seconds long and gives you all the information that you need to decide whether or not this approach is one that could work for you. Bear in mind that the World Cup Portfolio is a leveraged portfolio unlike our "Perfect Portfolio" which is not leveraged. We think you will find this video very informative and educational.

Watch "Disecting The World Cup Portfolio"


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was lower overnight and is extending last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 82.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 81.32

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 80.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.10

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

Share

Phil Flynn: What Is The Poor Fed Going To Do Now?

What is the poor Fed going to do now? Despite the Fed best efforts the Jobs report was a dismal reminder that the economy and commodity prices still need some help. As nonfarm payrolls fell by a larger than expected 131,000 last month the odds that the FED instead of reducing its balance sheet and hang onto some of that paper money that they created out of thin air will instead begin to reinvest that money or put it back out in the market place. The goal is to try to inspire some type of economic enterprise.

Despite the signs of some rebound in the economy new health care programs and new financial regulation bills are leading to uncertainty and economic immobility. The Fed worried about another deflationary spiral that had seemed to be gaining momentum as the market anticipated a reduction of the fed balance sheet. The Fed fears that if they start to remove this stimulus that then it is possible that this nascent recovery make roll over and die.....Read the entire article.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TV

Share

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing

This is like the perfect marriage of TV and the web. Now you can attend online trading seminars that you have an interest in. It is so easy. If you are reading this email, you are online and therefore have everything you need to get started. You can attend all 4 trading seminars, or just the ones that interest you. There are four world class trading instructors that will help improve your trading. Best of all, it's all online and it's on TREND TV now.

Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Just click here to Check out Trend TV

Share

Volume by Price Reveals Key Support & Resistance Levels

I find it amazing how many traders do not use volume as a factor in their trading decisions. I believe it’s always important to track the volume no matter which time frame you are trading simply because it tell you how much interest there is for that investment at that given time and price level. If you use volume and understand how to read it when located at the bottom of the chart which is the standard way of reading it then your well ahead of many traders and just may find this little volume indicator helpful.

Price and volume are the two most important aspects of trading in my opinion. While news and geopolitical events cause daily blips and in rare occasions change the overall trend of an investment, more times than not its better to just trade the underlying trend. Most news and events cannot be predicted so focusing on the price action and volume helps tell us if investors are bullish or bearish for any given investment.

Below are a few charts showing the volume by price indicator in use. Reading this indicator is simple, the longer the blue bars the more volume had traded at that point. High volume levels become key support and resistance levels.

SPY – SP500 Exchange Traded Fund
As you can see on the chart below and I have pointed out key support and resistance levels using the volume by price indicator. The thin red resistance levels would be areas which I would be tightening my stops and or pulling some money off the table.

The SP500 is currently trading at the apex of this wedge. The market internals as of Friday were still giving a bullish bias which should bring the index up to resistance once more on Monday or Tuesday. From there we will have to see if we get another wave of heavy selling or a breakout to the upside.

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund
Gold has the opposite volume to price action as the SP500. We are seeing a lot more over head resistance and that’s going to make it tough for gold to make a new high any time soon.

USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund
Crude oil broke out of is rising wedge last week and has started to drift back down as traders take profits. Many times after a breakout we will see prices dip down and test that breakout level before continuing in the trend of the breakout. I should point out that there is a large gap to be filled from last Monday’s pop in price and we all know most gaps tend to get filled.

UUP – US Dollar Exchange Traded Fund
The dollar has been sliding the past 2 months and it’s now trading at the bottom of a major support level. If the dollar starts to bounce it will put some downward pressure on stocks and commodities.

Weekend ETF Trend Conclusion:
In short, I feel the market has a little more life left in it. I’m expecting 1-2 more days of bullish/sideways price action, after that we could see the market roll over hard. It’s very likely the US dollar starts a significant rally which will pull stocks and commodities down.

With the major indices and gold trading at key resistance levels, traders/investors ready to hit the sell button, and the dollar at a key support level I think its only a matter of time before we see a sharp snapback. That being said there is one scenario which is bullish and could still play out. That would be if the US dollar starts to flag and drift sideways for a week or so, and for stocks and commodities to also move sideways before taking another run higher. Watching the intraday price and volume action will help us figure out if buyers are sellers are in control this week. Anyways that’s it for now.

If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trading Alerts visit "The Gold and Oil Guy .Com"


Share